Need to turn 6K into 10K, what are my chances?

[Cray Cray]

Hey dudes,

Due to unforeseen financial difficulties, I now have my back against the wall and need to turn 6K into 10K in under 12 hours. The casino I'll be playing at is Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. Their rules are 6 decks, DAS, and S17. I follow basic BJ strategy with one exception: I do not split 8's against a ten, instead I surrender. I'm a strong believer in betting the table minimum when in a losing streak and betting big when you seem to be hot. It's worked for me in the past. I've never tried counting cards.

With all this in mind, what do you think my chances are of turning 6K into 10K (making $4,000 net)? Any advice or words of wisdom is greatly appreciated.

[Norm]

The National Council on Problem Gambling has a 24 hour hotline at 1-800-522-4700.

[Math Demon]

cray, norm is giving pretty good advice, though maybe a tad exaggerated. so far none of us have suggested what i think is BEST likelihood of casino way to make 66% on your banroll in less than 12 hours: put 4080$ on BANK in baccarat with slightly> 50% chance you will win and they will collect 80$, 5%, commission.

should this lose, bet the remainder same way. if loses you are done. if wins, bet the 3774 and if THAT wins bet 2772 and if that wins you got your 4000. odds of that are only about one in eight but, not bad, given that makes your overall prospects greater than 50%. i will leave it to those who DO have an idea what they are talking about to tell you their confidence level of counting with that bankroll and goal for 12 hours but please ignore anyone who suggests it is greater than 50%.

also, i will feel much better about this if you dont randomly place the BANKER bet but rather, place it ONLY after a 4 of clubs OR 2 of hearts appears. also, if you lose the first bet but win the second, i suggest you close that session and go eat and then come back for a new session------none of this changes your prospects, but with 12 hours, i will just FEEL much better about it.

Really? Seriously? Are you really testing that ledge? Trying to see how close to the edge you can get before falling?


Norm had already posted the most sensible response with post # 2. All the others are just goofing around.

On the other hand, you're seriously advising someone how to gamble. Your advice is similar to telling an alcoholic where he can buy cheaper booze. Then, of course, fellow alcoholics know the best places for alcohol.



I believe "Gambling is frowned upon in this establishment!" ... So is riding a dog like it's a small horse.

The National Council on Problem Gambling has a 24 hour hotline at 1-800-522-4700.

http://www.ncpgambling.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=1

[hardin county boy]

Really? Seriously?
I believe "Gambling is frowned upon in this establishment!"

demon, you smart enough to do the math, you gotta be smart enough to know "disadvantage forum" would suggest to most english readers a place in which disadvantage play is discussed. common sense suggests that one NOT post disadvantaged play items outside this thread. similarly, good manners might suggest not inserting advantage play "advice" and insults into a FORUM for disadvantaged play. this might help:
fo·rum

noun \?fo?r-?m\ : a meeting at which a subject can be discussed
: a place or opportunity for discussing a subject

cray asked a question and he is full grown, as am i, and neither of us need nor asked for advantage play advice and, speaking for myself, i am not asking to be insulted in a well-run forum on the subject of blackjack, when i post disadvantaged play conversation in the disadvantage forum.

i gave cray, who is in a tight spot, the highest percentage shot i could come up with in a casino---if you can meet his goal with better than 50% probability by counting, please post THAT in the appropriate forum.

thanks.

[Math Demon]

Norm,

Did I join the wrong Forum? Is this a Blackjack Forum where APs assists each other?

Or is this just another forum where all kinds of nonsense are discussed and tolerated?


I heard there is another Forum which tolerates all kinds of nonsense. Are we slowly becoming like that one?


Thanks,
Math Demon

[Pacman]

Norm,

Did I join the wrong Forum? Is this a Blackjack Forum where APs assists each other?

Or is this just another forum where all kinds of nonsense are discussed and tolerated?


I heard there is another Forum which tolerates all kinds of nonsense. Are we slowly becoming like that one?


Thanks,
Math Demon

He may be Right though Math Demon. This IS the section for disadvanteous play and advice. We are not in the AP section of the forum. It could be considered insulting to speak of science, in the church of nonsense... I believe the term is blasphemy?

~Pac

[Math Demon]

He may be Right though Math Demon. This IS the section for disadvanteous play and advice. We are not in the AP section of the forum. It could be considered insulting to speak of science, in the church of nonsense... I believe the term is blasphemy?

~Pac

Pacman,

If you can read between the lines, I was asking Norm whether a "Disadvantage Forum" even belong to "Blackjack: The Forum". I think it marginalizes this whole Forum. Maybe Norm can just rename us as "Anything Goes: The Forum"

[hardin county boy]

He may be Right though Math Demon. This IS the section for disadvanteous play and advice. We are not in the AP section of the forum. It could be considered insulting to speak of science, in the church of nonsense... I believe the term is blasphemy?

~Pac

pac, agree your post #26 was kindly, concise and stemmed from an interest in helping out, with some good humor sprinkled in. also agree when those of us at a stage of development that don't want to be confused by good science have it thrust upon us, it DOES interrupt the peace in the church--it IS blasphemy.

math demon asks norm a question that i have no power over--perfectly good question. i would observe that giving the many of us who come on with disadvantage yap a narrow, back-of-the-bus FORUM has the value of slowly having helpful things sink in to us and broadening the community but those may not be goals of the forum? math, if it is to be as you describe then renaming the thing the advantage player forum would keep us disadvantage guys out.

you dont have to worry that you are supporting nonsense--the heat is overwhelming--so much so you guys sometimes dont even answer questions like cray is asking that does have a math answer he probably can't figure out (nor can I)---just blasting the guy for being a degenerate with a dumb idea is really NOSEY--it is, in truth, none-your-damn-business if he wants to try for a 66% return in 12 hours----except for armed robbery, if thats what he wants, where WOULD he go but a casino?

[Mr BJ75]

pac, agree your post #26 was kindly, concise and stemmed from an interest in helping out, with some good humor sprinkled in. also agree when those of us at a stage of development that don't want to be confused by good science have it thrust upon us, it DOES interrupt the peace in the church--it IS blasphemy.

math demon asks norm a question that i have no power over--perfectly good question. i would observe that giving the many of us who come on with disadvantage yap a narrow, back-of-the-bus FORUM has the value of slowly having helpful things sink in to us and broadening the community but those may not be goals of the forum? math, if it is to be as you describe then renaming the thing the advantage player forum would keep us disadvantage guys out.

you dont have to worry that you are supporting nonsense--the heat is overwhelming--so much so you guys sometimes dont even answer questions like cray is asking that does have a math answer he probably can't figure out (nor can I)---just blasting the guy for being a degenerate with a dumb idea is really NOSEY--it is, in truth, none-your-damn-business if he wants to try for a 66% return in 12 hours----except for armed robbery, if thats what he wants, where WOULD he go but a casino?

Hardin County,

I read everything, and I still yet to figure out if I agree with you or if I don't or if I like you, or I don't. It seems like you compliment while at the same time putting one down. You write so much that often it goes two opposing directions.

[Pacman]

Hey hey, my post was very sensible. Just learn hi lo bro. It should take no more than an hour. Use it for bet variations while using basic. Wong out of negative counts. Table hop. And you've significantly increased your odds vs randomly betting and hoping to catch a lucky break. Your "luck" will improve if you only play positive counts

Though it IS Friday the 13th. Perhaps you should wait ;P

~Pac

[Cray Cray]

Thanks Norm but my phone service has already been turned off for non-payment.

[mofungoo]

Try their website.

[Dtb239]

Yes, the only way to play BJ is with an advantageous, AKA counting cards, it's the mathematically proven way.