i am guessing there are no free simulations out there but wonder if anyone knows of links that would give long lists of "reliably random" blackjack hands. lists that have maybe 3000 hands with "expected" variance, as well as negative and positive variance lists would all have value to me.
thanks.
The nature of blackjack makes those lists useless to a progression player. Unlike roulette and craps where each trial has the same theoretical outcome distribution each card turned changes the set of possible outcomes and the advantage being played. Just like any other blackjack analysis on a hand per hand basis you would need a sim of tens of millions or billions of hands. A few thousand hands would be about as meaningless as the 12 session results being trotted out on one or two threads here. That said I am sure someone sells such a pamphlet for progression players. You could spend a day or two at your kitchen table and put one together yourself if you wanted free. Just get the appropriate number of cards and deal the conditions and number of spot you are interested in. More interestingly you could record a W/L history for each spot played during the same rounds to get to the number of rounds you would like to see.
There are exactly 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975 ,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000 arrangements of one 52-card deck. What are you going to do with 3,000 hands?
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Originally Posted by Tthree
Tthree, you're a genius! I would try that and record the won amount by seat. For example, if seat #5 records the most amount won, I will only play at seat #5. Let's go to Vegas, and bring home a million dollars.
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
I heard a ploppy pointing out the other day that seat number 5 never wins. So I watched that seat for the next 20 minutes, and by George, he was right! Seat 5 never won a goldammed thing! Maybe that folklore only applies to the Southern Hemisphere? PS Apparently Gamblers' Fallacy also applies in kitchens?
At first glance, this mega-string of numbers appears impressive. But when we look closer, we see a space after 975 in the sequence . Unfortunately, this has the effect of undermining the credibility of the entire proposition. I don't want to be nitpicker but on this occasion, I see what looks like a nit. So I picked it...
yeah, i think "the norm rule" sounds better, seat 5 is overdue for a loss. actually my request for known lists of blackjack hands could have a lot of future value to both repel AND teach those of us who still hold religious views that some progression out there will get it done. gimmee enough lists and that oughta shut me up. the idea that 3000 hands is "not enough" is seen as valid, even by me, but i dont think it will take so many, many lists of 3000 for the inevitable losses you know will occur to mount up and slowly sink into the heads of my religious, voodoo brothers and me AND it has the virtue of we waste OUR time figuring it out instead of other people's---win-win.
I cannot tell a lie , I put that space there to see how long it would take for you to mention it. And, "Yes, sir, Officer Obie, I cannot tell a lie, I put that envelope
under that garbage."
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Dang it! I couldn't even make it as a progressive betting ploppy. I forgot about the "fallacy of the maturity of chances".
"2' looks close enough to be "5" if flipped over. So seat #5 in the Southern hemisphere, seat #2 in the Northern one. Vegas, baby!
BTW, for 6-decks, the number of arrangements are: 2.102026605126378359351726442119571336270439087200 00167536756842728609276364870071276018632900069284 700768301037938 × 10^644
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
how did you, anyway?
Bookmarks