Navagating through Negative Waters

[moses]

Delete

[Buddy_Cat]

Have you checked out The Ultimate Gambit in Chapter 7 of "Burning the Tables...?"

[Pacman]

If the Index for the play is met, then it is mathematically the correct move. I dont question the math.
i also wong out of negative shoes for several reasons. Mainly because itll make raising your bet later look suspicious if you were just betting min for half a shoe or more. Just get up. Walk away. And dont worry bout them negative shoes.
If you have to play all, then as i said, do what your count calls for at the proper index. If you don use a count, then play basic strategy. Hit you 16v10 & 12v3/4. If real negative, dont double 10v9, A7v3 & 9v3
Dont hit anything against 5,6 unless you know when. And dont hit 14s, 15s or 16s for the same reason.
~Pac

[KJ]

First of all, I don't think negative index pays will hurt you that much as far as heat concerns, if that's what you want to do. Few pit people even know the illustrious 18, let alone getting into the negative index plays.

But, playing the negative plays to make a bad situation (negative count) slightly less negative, is a distance second to just not playing the negative EV hand to begin with. I Wong out aggressively. Certainly you can't escape all negative expectation hands, but you want to at least eliminate paying the worst (bad counts) of them, especially when it is really unlikely the count will turn significantly plus EV, which is what we are really after,

Getting out of playing these hands is a positive for me in two ways. I avoid playing the worst of my negative expectation hands, which that alone improves your win rate. And second, I am showing my minimum wager less. Showing your bet spread is about showing both your max bet and minimum bet. Just sitting playing through tons of hands showing your minimum wager, just makes it stand out more when you do start raising your bet. So just paying all these negative hands, even with index plays is just a double negative for me.

One additional negative that doesn't really effect me, is that if you are playing rated, you are lowering your average bet significantly, meaning lower comps and mailer offers.

[Three]

The third way it hurts you is you can't be playing a monster count on another table if you are playing a negative count at this table.

[KJ]

The third way it hurts you istou can't be playing a monster count on another table if you are playing a negative count at this table.

Very good T3! I wasn't going to bring that aspect up again, but very very true.

[KJ]

KJ: Thanks for your input. Wong out aggressively? Why not just walk away? Understand I'm strictly a single deck player.

Yeah, I already forgot that you are only playing single deck. My bad. Although I don't play single deck, I understand you would need to play differently. Even when I play double deck, I play more negative EV hands. I still get out of the most extreme negative counts, but you have to be willing to play a few more negative situations.

I do have a question for you moses. As you are getting back into the game after a long absence, are you sure there are all the SD games available that you think there are. I know there are SD games in northern Nevada and in some of the smaller out of the way town, but almost all are very low limit and watched pretty closely. Any place that has both a SD game and DD games or shoe game, I would think the better opportunity would be the non-SD game. Much the same as many places in Vegas that offer both DD and shoe games, you will find the AP's hitting the shoe game. The better game is often a 'counter trap'.

[hitthat16]

watched pretty closely.

False.

[Pacman]

False.

Not false. "Counter traps" exist. Perhaps not directly for trapping counters. But they ARE watched more closely and thus you can be spotted easier. Not to mention the TC swings are greater so your bet generally will change alot more then in shoes. Most just look for excess bet changes to weed out possibke counters. Along with insuance and A7v9,10,A if im not mistaken.

~Pac

[Bef]

How do you guys handle wonging out as a red chip player mainly? If you have 100+ in red and just table hop a lot, the dealers always freak and ask you to color up before leaving...surely that gets on everyone's nerves if you're only there 10 min and leave. Just buy in for really small amounts like 50 bucks? Also, how long do you give a shoe to turn positive? Most of the shoes I sit through as a beginning counter go negative pretty quickly...and make me wonder if I should always be betting big to start shoes as I hit my best hands then But obviously being at -10 1.5 decks in isn't as major as it is with .5 deck til the cut card. Just thought I'd hear some opinions.