The count debate

[KJ]

This count debate became much clearer to me yesterday after receiving an pm from a senior, very experienced, very knowledgeable member of the forum.

For several years I have known that there was a consensus among the majority of the more experienced blackjack community, that in this era of less favorable games, what count a player chooses to use just doesn't matter all that much as long as it is one of the full strength counts and not some half assed count like A-5, or speed count.

Now this isn't to say that all of these experienced players use a level one count like hi-lo. Many do not. But they do recognize the diminishing returns of learning and playing a higher level count in today's environment for the vast majority of players. Now, I used that 'diminishing returns' comment before and it was met with some confusion, but the real meaning strongly applies, so I am not going to change it now. Those confused....learn the true meaning.

Now, probably the most notable, senior and experienced member of our community on the other side of the argument, is Flash, a strong proponent of a level 2 count, and still advising players to learn and play this count. In the last year, there has been a second, very vocal proponent of Flash's position and that is Tthree. Now Tthree is what I refer to as a sim-heavy guy. That is a person who gives too much weight to the results of simulations, not realizing they don't translate 100% into real world play.

Now because Tthree is a very frequent poster, he is often the voice for that side of the argument that I end up debating with. Most of the majority of the community that agrees with me, just dosen't bother anymore, feeling it is not worth it. But like many things, I was slow to learn that lesson.

To be continued...

[KJ]

The count debate, part 2. (Had to break it up because my tablet computer logs me out during long posts)

So continuing, one of the reasons that I have continued to be a vocal proponent of use of a simple level one count is because I am seeing the effect this misinformation has on the newer players that don't understand that the benefits of a higher count are being misrepresented.

Earlier this year after posting about my rough start to the year, where I was in the red $30 grand, I had one newer member pm me and inform me that if I was using a higher count like Hi-opt2, I would not be in the red, I would in fact be in positive territory. Apparently the fact that almost all counts identify 95% percent of the same advantageous and disadvantageous situations was lost on him, as he just bought into the misrepresentation that a higher level count is so much 'better'.

So anyway with a very vocal member like Tthree now the 'spokesman', the debate seemed to come up more frequently and a second strong proponent seemed to make the case even stronger and I suspect more new players are buying into this misrepresentation.

Now, here's the part that I just learned yesterday. Tthree has sort of been mentored by Flash for quite a while, practiced and played together. Nothing wrong with that. Flash is an experienced player and I am sure an excellent teacher. I myself have learned quite a bit from him over the years by participating on various sites as well as some private communications. But, I am just saying, is it any wonder Tthree's position so closely mirrors Flash's?

Now in a sense, even though I didn't mention any name, my disclosure of this pm and info that I received, sort of violates privacy issues. I apologize the the person involved as I suspect it may be traced back to him. But, I really felt it needed to be disclosed that these seemingly multiple vocal proponents of using a higher count are sort of connected. In my mind it is more a single voice. And I really want the newer players and members of the community to know, that these two connected opinions are not representative of the majority of the community.

Now again, I want to emphasize, that is not to say that many members don't use a higher count, but they have concluded that in today's blackjack game, it's just not that important.

A prime example of this is one member of the community and noted author, who I communicated with several years ago, at I time I, myself was experimenting and playing a level 2 count, told me that he still plays a level 2 count, RPC, because he learned it oh so many years ago, when it made a difference, but if he was starting over today, he would learn and play a level one count like hi-lo or ko. That statement, from such a player, whom I won't mention by name, but he can feel free to chime in, has always weighed heavy on my mind.

And this rather long post will end my participation in this discussion (said for the umpteenth time...lol). You newer player, learn whatever count you want, whatever count you can play confortably and effectively. Just know that what count you play, just doesn't matter that much as long as you play it well.

Now if you have access to a time machine and deeply dealt hand held games...then we can have this discussion.

[8675309]

I am sorry but I just have to ask....what was your response to the pm that told you that if you had been using a different count that you would not have been behind because that is quite ridiculous? I myself am working on a more complex count, but all counts have wild swings in both directions and I THOUGHT we all knew that...lol. I have great respect for all of you folks that are beating the game and doing what I hope to be doing some day. There are several reasons why I went with the choice of the count that I recently did, but it is not because I thought I would never lose, we all are going to have losing streaks from time to time. I personally have said several times that I think complex counts are not for everyone because of differing goals and abilities and quite frankly many totally new players will just give up and say it is too hard before they actually learn to even perform the count, it is just my personal decision and my OCD personality that led me to choose what I thought was the absolute best count for me personally. I cannot speak for anyone else and try to never pretend to, but I know that I am hard headed enough to actually stick with what I set out to do for months on end or even longer to finish what I started. I totally understand what you meant by diminishing returns, and I think most that understand the concept agree with that....and in my case, I have no real bankroll to play with now anyway so it will not cost me anything to take the time to learn the more complex count. Now on the other hand if I had a huge bankroll and was actually making some real money playing the game, then I may have evaluated my decision differently, but in my particular case I know that I made the right choice for me personally and that does not mean it will ever make me successful and it does not mean it is the right choice for anyone else. As you all well know, it takes much more to be successful at this than learning a count whether it be super simple or super complex. I mean if I do not have the discipline to walk away from crap games or play within betting limits then the count I play is not going to matter.

[stopgambling]

If all I could do is count , 6d I choose Halves over hi -lo . If it's pitch then hi opt2 , if both then ZEN. Now what i really want to do is find some good opportunities and just use hi lo ,so i can do other things easier.

[21forme]

Oh no, not another of the never-ending which count to use threads...

KJ - I stopped responding to (and reading many of) T3's posts a long time ago. Same old, same old...
Bottom line, the two most important factors in selecting a game are:

1. penetration, and
2. game speed.

Everything else is of minor importance, with count being probably being at the bottom (unless you're playing SD).

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The inherent weakness of democracy is that the majority

is generally more often WRONG than it is CORRECT.

That is why we disdain Mob Rule. That is why we ignore Religious Zealots.

The last thing one should pay attention to is a consensus of non-experts.

The power of combined ignorance is enhanced where expertise is not certified.

[KJ]

I am sorry but I just have to ask....what was your response to the pm that told you that if you had been using a different count that you would not have been behind because that is quite ridiculous?

Without going back and looking, I am sure I tried to explain that all counts identify most of the same situations and results would only be minimally different with a different count. But it highlighted my real concern, that this 'campaign' of misrepresentation was having an effect.

We actually have the ability to put this issue to rest, at least to my satisfaction. I propose a poll on the issue. No debate. Just a poll of membership. Now wording would be critical, and that's why I don't feel qualified to initiate such a poll. Wording to the effect that we aren't debating what count is stronger. But just how much it matters.

Now I would want the poll to not be anonymous. I am not confident that the poll wouldn't be nearly evenly divided. But I am confident that if the members voting for each side was visible, newer members could look at those results and see a trend in the voting with regards to the members that they have known to be experience and really have a clue as to what they are doing.

Any takers on posting a poll from objective party like Norm, Ouchez, RWM, ICNT?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I hasten to endorse stopgambling's choices.

[Smartpart]

I haven't spent over a year using a level 2 count like KJ, and I think most haven't. I think its important to keep this in mind when we discuss the topic in this context. While experience is not a definitive deciding factor, I think it is important to consider a full time successful blackjack player's opinion who has taken the time to implement both sides of the argument and come to a conclusion. I won't disagree with anyone experienced who shows the evidence of why a higher level count is superior(extended deeply dealt dd sessions, etc), but I think the default should be hi lo for most.

[KJ]

The last thing one should pay attention to is a consensus of non-experts.

I am not talking about a consensus of non-experts. I am refering to a consensus of members that I think you and I would both feel have a pretty good idea of what they are doing. This would be the benefit of a non anonymous poll. You would see where those experienced members were voting. Maybe I would be surprised at the results.....but I don't think so.

[KJ]

I hasten to endorse stopgambling's choices.

Good grief! I hasten to endorse 21forme's opinion.

[8675309]

I obviously do not know who sent you the pm, but in all fairness, I do not believe any of the experienced higher level count guys would ever try to lead someone to believe that they could not encounter a losing streak by playing a higher level count. I am thinking that this person came to their own conclusion on that....If that was the case, I could take my couple hundred bucks, quite my job and go start playing full time. I do not think anyone who would make a comment like that to you can be used as a basis for any argument because of obvious reasons.

[stopgambling]

Did I do something wrong ! Sigh... I do agree with Flash 's idea that what the general consensus is could be wrong.Most often the best of any field are often thought of as "different" ,and not agreed with. I am talking about some special side count or tweak . I always have the thought back of my mind that there are a lot of not common methods that are crushing the casino. As the example in Don's book BJA 3 ,many players look for the best rules while using the high level count but overlook the importantance of penetration in a game. I have a very limited knowledge in bj and a lot of things ,but just want to express my view.All that i know are either learned here or from the books that are written by some of the people that participate here.and a little bit from elsewhere.