I'm thinking of going pro-seeking advice from current/former pros

[Rookie]

I'm a mid-career professional who has just been laid off from my job and I'm considering playing BJ full-time. I'm tired of the corporate "rat race" and office politics and want to do something where I make my own hours and control my own destiny. I enjoy the casino environment and have been playing BJ regularly for 20 years (basic strategy only). I've read dozens of BJ books and have been fascinated with the game for quite a while and have considered going pro in the past - point is, this is not an idea that came up on a whim or a passing fad. I feel as though I have the determination, aptitude, and discipline to try and make a go of it but want to seek the advice of those who are currently doing it. I live on the east coast, a long drive (or short flight) to AC and also have a few other casinos within driving Distance. I also have a family (kids are early teens) and would like to try and keep my working schedule to about 3 days per week.

I realize it's a big jump from basic strategy to counting but I'm willing to put in the time necessary to train/practice if it means that I can work for myself and make a living doing so. I . I've been absorbing as much as I can lately from these forum sites but still have many questions, mainly revolving around the financial aspects such as if my bankroll is sufficient and how much $$ I can reasonably expect to make. Below I've listed some questions/assumptions that I have and welcome the community to respond and also to add any other advice, tips, warnings, etc.

1) I have a $20k bankroll- is it reasonable to assume that my base unit bet could be $20-$25

2) based on above, is it reasonable to believe that if I play the system correctly, find decent games, and play an average of 25 hours per week that I could make $40/hr, $1,000/wk. I will not need to pull any $$ out of my play for the first 4 months but after that I will need to pull about $4k/month.

2A.) is 4 months (400 hours) enough time for the law of large numbers to kick in- meaning that after 400 hours of play can I reasonably expect to be on the positive side of things ( again assuming good play)? After that initial 4 months, how much deviance can I expect - is it likely that I could go 2-3 months without making money?

3) what do you recommend as the most appropriate counting system for someone starting out.



4) is it reasonable to assume I could play 25 hours per week in 3-4 days?

5) with the proliferation of gambling in the US and more and more states allowing casinos, is it getting easier to find good games or are casinos taking xtra measures to prevent counting

6) how much heat will a $20-25 per bet player receive assuming he takes reasonable precautions?


thanks in advance for your input.

[Pacman]

I'm a mid-career professional who has just been laid off from my job and I'm considering playing BJ full-time. I'm tired of the corporate "rat race" and office politics and want to do something where I make my own hours and control my own destiny. I enjoy the casino environment and have been playing BJ regularly for 20 years (basic strategy only). I've read dozens of BJ books and have been fascinated with the game for quite a while and have considered going pro in the past - point is, this is not an idea that came up on a whim or a passing fad. I feel as though I have the determination, aptitude, and discipline to try and make a go of it but want to seek the advice of those who are currently doing it. I live on the east coast, a long drive (or short flight) to AC and also have a few other casinos within driving Distance. I also have a family (kids are early teens) and would like to try and keep my working schedule to about 3 days per week.

I realize it's a big jump from basic strategy to counting but I'm willing to put in the time necessary to train/practice if it means that I can work for myself and make a living doing so. I . I've been absorbing as much as I can lately from these forum sites but still have many questions, mainly revolving around the financial aspects such as if my bankroll is sufficient and how much $$ I can reasonably expect to make. Below I've listed some questions/assumptions that I have and welcome the community to respond and also to add any other advice, tips, warnings, etc.

1) I have a $20k bankroll- is it reasonable to assume that my base unit bet could be $20-$25

2) based on above, is it reasonable to believe that if I play the system correctly, find decent games, and play an average of 25 hours per week that I could make $40/hr, $1,000/wk. I will not need to pull any $$ out of my play for the first 4 months but after that I will need to pull about $4k/month.

2A.) is 4 months (400 hours) enough time for the law of large numbers to kick in- meaning that after 400 hours of play can I reasonably expect to be on the positive side of things ( again assuming good play)? After that initial 4 months, how much deviance can I expect - is it likely that I could go 2-3 months without making money?

3) what do you recommend as the most appropriate counting system for someone starting out.



4) is it reasonable to assume I could play 25 hours per week in 3-4 days?

5) with the proliferation of gambling in the US and more and more states allowing casinos, is it getting easier to find good games or are casinos taking xtra measures to prevent counting

6) how much heat will a $20-25 per bet player receive assuming he takes reasonable precautions?


thanks in advance for your input.

1. Your gonna need a lot more if you plan to live off your earnings.

2. You could make much more than $40/hr (games depending) the problem obviously is the need to pull 4k a month. You can only EXCEPT to make a certain amount in the LONG RUN. You could be down some months or even constantly break even. In which case taking 4k would be detrimental to your BR and will force you to reduce your spread or subject whats left of your BR to a larger ROR.

2.A) Yes. But it all depends and there would still be a chance or you being behind or tapped out.

3. If this is gonna be your living, precision is key (imo). I'd strive for a strong level 2 count. Zen or HiOpt2/ace side count would be my choice. Practice and they will become second nature.

4. Yes but itll be long days/nights. Backcounting will devour large chunks of time.

5. No. Good games are dying off because not enough people care for game quality (ploppies) and thus casinos can get away with shady rules and conditions (6-5 BJ). The occasional gem can be uncovered though. The moneys there but i suggest learning more than just your standard counting to maximize your time and EV.

6. 20-25 is green chip action. Id say it depends where you play. If you go to some dusty old casino in the middle of no where that never sees action of that level, expect heat. Vegas sees action like that regularly, but dont expect them to not know your counting for long. If you spread your action over many casinos and keep your play time short and/or leave after a max bet shoe, you should be able to play at most places for a while.

Do keep in mind my answers are opinion based. I am by no means a full time pro. But i do have a pretty decent knowledge of the game. And have been playing/counting for awhile. Im sure a real pro will/should chime in.
To conclude, IMO, your BR is to small. But, i don know how one would exactly feed of there BR unless they had a set BR with a set ROR and everytime they doubled it they took half and started again. Hoping they'd never see ruin.

~Pac

[HowMany]

A $20k bankroll seems adequate for a recreational counter, but not for a full time pro.

There is no guarantee you will be +$$ after 4 months, even if you are doing everything right.

I would advise against the idea.

[mcallister3200]

Don't even think about it until you've got at least 400 hours of counting play in and have proven yourself profitable as a semi-pro. I guess you already did think about it, but you're on the short end of a reasonable bankroll and with no experience the most likely scenario is financial disaster.

[harpo]

If this is something you truly want, then do it. There would be nothing worst to me than laying on my death bed saying I wish I would of, I wish I would of.

[stopgambling]

Bank is too small . Your income depends on it ,so it would not work since not all criteria is met. Skill level ,bank ,games and you can not travel (assumption) far make you a recreational player at best for the moment. Why can you just work and play at the same time . I would do it as a side business until all the requirements are met.

[stopgambling]

Bank is too small . Your income depends on it ,so it would not work since not all criteria is met. Skill level ,bank ,games and you can not travel (assumption) far make you a recreational player at best for the moment. Why can you just work and play at the same time . I would do it as a side business until all the requirements are met. You will need to wait till the pros chime in.

[KJ]

Although I like Harpo's sentiment, I would advise Rookie against doing so at this time. Rookie asked some reasonable questions, but the fact is anyone considering playing for a living will already know the answers to all these questions.

But I will touch on just one of the questions to hopefully clarify things a bit for you. I am in my 10th year of supporting myself from blackjack play. I have been pretty close to expectation for my amount and level of play in each of my last 4 years, 3 slightly above expectation and 1 a little below. But in 3 of those 4 years, I have experienced losing periods of 6 months or more. That should give you some idea of the volatility we deal with. So that 4 month period that your expenses are covered needs to be more like a year.

Now again, I really like Harpo's sentiment. People need to take a shot at their dreams. But, with a family of teenage kids, doesn't seem like the right time to make this move. Pre-family, and the responsibilities and expenses that come with it or after the kids are in college or out on their own seems like a better time. But that doesn't mean you have to put your dream away in the closet. Find employment and begin to play part-time. Build your bankroll and knowledge and when the proper time comes you will be better prepared.

[stopgambling]

You should read Arnold Snyder s Forum, an article YOU CAN NOT WIN. and a few more. It talks about the volatility of blackjack. I pretty much agree with what KJ said in the post above.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Playing as many hours as you are projecting is a patent absurdity by a factor of perhaps ten.

A proper time-line shows the decreasing number of blackjack tables in the USA, irrespective

of there being more casinos built each year.

The number of exploitable games has dropped precipitously.

[KJ]

Playing as many hours as you are projecting is a patent absurdity by a factor of perhaps ten.

A proper time-line shows the decreasing number of blackjack tables in the USA, irrespective

of there being more casinos built each year.

The number of exploitable games has dropped precipitously.

What???

I thought 20-25 hours per week at green chip level is one of the more reasonable aspects of his plan.

Now you, Flash say that's an absurdity by a factor of ten. ?? That means you think only 2-2.5 hours per week is possible at the green chip level? Please clarify your thought.

[HowMany]

You should read Arnold Snyder s Forum, an article YOU CAN NOT WIN. and a few more. It talks about the volatility of blackjack. I pretty much agree with what KJ said in the post above.

Here is a link to Arnold Snyder's article titled "You Won't Win."

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/wontwin.html

[Freightman]

I haven't simmed it, however, a monthly requirement of 4k (after 4 months when severance runs out, I presume) on a 20 k bankroll is an absolute recipe for disaster.