Who has gone bust

**HowMany** · 07-31-2013, 10:39 AM

Thanks Matt21

**George C** · 07-31-2013, 10:57 AM

I've usually played at a 1% RoR level and have never busted out. I've lost half a bank more times than I can remember. (A 10

**blackjack avenger** · 07-31-2013, 12:43 PM

Originally Posted by George C

I've usually played at a 1% RoR level and have never busted out. I've lost half a bank more times than I can remember. (A 10

10% chance of losing half?

**RWM** · 07-31-2013, 01:34 PM

Yes it was a team. We did not actually lose the BR, but the bank was for a certain time period which ended. I believe it was just bad flux since I had team mates come out with me 3 or 4 times to sit at the table with me to watch me play. I passed every time. But the point is the experience was bad enough that I quit playing, which I think happens to many people who have big losing streaks when they first start. I was just fortunate that my friend talked me into giving it another try. I also learned very quickly that counting cards is too small an edge.

**George C** · 07-31-2013, 05:13 PM

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

10% chance of losing half?

Yes somehow all my post was truncated. A 10% chance of losing half.

**Goatlife** · 07-31-2013, 05:37 PM

I very recently just got my had a 33.3 percent loss of entire bankroll followed by an 135% increase.. this all happened within a 5 week period... swings can be nuts especially on low edge games... I dont' know how some people play with 50-70 max bets..

KJ · 07-31-2013, 06:12 PM

Originally Posted by smallcapgrowth

I very recently just got my had a 33.3 percent loss of entire bankroll followed by an 135% increase.. this all happened within a 5 week period... swings can be nuts especially on low edge games... I dont' know how some people play with 50-70 max bets..

These numbers are very close to being representative of my year as well SCG. I play different max bets for different games and situation, which in itself can increase volatility, but I lost just about 80 of my 'average' max bets from Jan 1 thru mid April. Then in a 5 week period from mid April into May, I won 286 of these 'average' max bets. After some time off, my results have been very flatlined since.

But that 5 week period was very eye-opening to me. It far above standard deviation for the amount of play during that time, and I find myself wondering if I was fortunate enough to experience such results outside of SD what is to stop me from experiencing such extreme negative results, far outside SD?? Seems every time I really begin to feel comfortable with my BR/RoR, something convinces me that I need more BR. I wonder if there is ever a really comfortable RoR.

**Buddy_Cat** · 07-31-2013, 06:50 PM

Originally Posted by RWM

Yes it was a team. We did not actually lose the BR, but the bank was for a certain time period which ended. I believe it was just bad flux since I had team mates come out with me 3 or 4 times to sit at the table with me to watch me play. I passed every time. But the point is the experience was bad enough that I quit playing, which I think happens to many people who have big losing streaks when they first start. I was just fortunate that my friend talked me into giving it another try. I also learned very quickly that counting cards is too small an edge.

Just out of curiosity, what adjustments did you make after your friend convinced you to give it another try?

**Goatlife** · 07-31-2013, 07:25 PM

Originally Posted by KJ

These numbers are very close to being representative of my year as well SCG. I play different max bets for different games and situation, which in itself can increase volatility, but I lost just about 80 of my 'average' max bets from Jan 1 thru mid April. Then in a 5 week period from mid April into May, I won 286 of these 'average' max bets. After some time off, my results have been very flatlined since.

But that 5 week period was very eye-opening to me. It far above standard deviation for the amount of play during that time, and I find myself wondering if I was fortunate enough to experience such results outside of SD what is to stop me from experiencing such extreme negative results, far outside SD?? Seems every time I really begin to feel comfortable with my BR/RoR, something convinces me that I need more BR. I wonder if there is ever a really comfortable RoR.

wow thats one hell of a ride.. i just plugged my max bet in that equation and the results are very scary (thank god it was on the positive side for you) I would think the real test of this statement is to see if you received any backoffs in that process.. my guess with your style of play would be none or few and thats probably the most important part of the equation. Not loosing a store in a tremendous upswing is a great thing. It is scary for me cause i keep raising by bets so i ahve 150 max bets spread out over 2 hands.. i know that might be a little aggressive but i need to take 0 dollars out of my bankroll so i feel i could be a little more aggressive.. CVCX still puts my ror are 0.01 so im comfy with that. the nice part now is i lose 40 max bets im comfy enough to resize down just a little to still play at a level thats not going to take an lifetime to get back.. play other games help too

**RWM** · 07-31-2013, 08:16 PM

Originally Posted by Buddy_Cat

Just out of curiosity, what adjustments did you make after your friend convinced you to give it another try?

Bear in mind this was many years ago when shuffles were very simple. I don't recall any casino in Las Vegas doing a 2 pass shuffle back then. My second foray was with a team entirely devoted to shuffle tracking. Our edge was slightly higher than counting, and it had the added benefit of less heat because we bet big off the top.

KJ · 07-31-2013, 11:18 PM

Originally Posted by smallcapgrowth

wow thats one hell of a ride.. i just plugged my max bet in that equation and the results are very scary (thank god it was on the positive side for you) I would think the real test of this statement is to see if you received any backoffs in that process.. my guess with your style of play would be none or few and thats probably the most important part of the equation. Not loosing a store in a tremendous upswing is a great thing.

I can't yet say for sure what the consequences were/are. I was fortunate enough that this 5 week period was divided pretty evenly between my regular rotation of stores and a 2 week road trip. Afterwards, I took a month and a half off from all blackjack play. When I began play again, I expanded my rotation of stores and only gradually began working some of my regular locations back into play, being very careful to mix up times.

I have had minimal issues to date, but have not returned to all of my locations yet. I am trying to minimize any damage, but I can't say for sure what the total consequences will be. I do know that for the time being I have downgraded my rotation to include lesser opportunities that has already come with a price in the form of lower EV. Add to that, lost EV from time off and the 'good fortune' of this upswing has been quite costly, even without officially losing stores.

**max85** · 07-31-2013, 11:32 PM

this is all very interesting, especially to hear the "true life" stories. im very interested in ST and whether its infact possible now. It seems to be a loosing all worth.

**UK-21** · 08-01-2013, 12:55 AM

Originally Posted by Matt21

I was involved in running a small card-counting team for about 15 months. After a close to 300 hours of play we were 3 standard deviations below EV and had lost half of the bankroll. Either there was some stuff going on or we did simply hit terrible variance.

Was that "around three", "on or virtually on three" or "somewhere between two and three"? Big difference between a c1/40 (230/10,000) event (between two and three, South) and a c14/10,000 (on three, South) event? The former you could put down to bad luck, the latter would need some digging into exactly what had gone on, or was going on?

Appreciate why you may not wish to answer this in a public forum.

Regards,