I use half deck increments for multiple deck games. Will I increase my advantage by doing deck estimation to 1/4 deck?
Only if using an ace side count. You'll need to know if the aces are normal or not. Otherwise within a deck in the first half of the shoe, within 1/2 deck in the second half. If penetration gets below 1 deck remaining there may be value in finer estimation.
Last edited by mofungoo; 07-06-2013 at 04:35 PM.
Also, different manufacturers of decks can have different thicknesses so if you truly want to attain 1/4 deck resolution you'd have to take that into account (cards also expand the more they are handled and shuffled).
I have Aristocrat and Paulson brand cancelled casino cards from the same casino I played at recently and you start to see about an 1/8 deck difference when 2 decks of each brand are stacked side by side (Paulson are thinner). And Bee are similar to Aristocrat. So that will eat into your 1/4 deck accuracy when you get into 2-5 deck estimation.
It won't increase your advantage, but it would increase your accuracy for index plays and betting, particularly at higher counts. Personally, I use 1/4 deck estimations. It's not that hard to get good at it with some practice, and there are easy TC conversion shortcuts.
"There is no passion to be found playing small, in settling for a life that is less than the one you are capable of living."
Most people use 1/2 deck estimation in shoe games, right? Do any of you occasionally bypass the estimation process if you know the TC is high enough for a big bet? For example, if there's obviously 2-3 decks left and the RC is +10, is it essential to know whether the TC is 3, 4 or 5? I'd think it would improve your cover and save you time if you just picked one of those numbers based on your last bet. If the TC was 3 last time and you bet $50, then bet $50 again. If the TC was 2 last time and you won a $25 bet, "let it ride" with a $50 bet the way a ploppy would.
To answer the OP's question more directly, 1/4 deck doesn't seem worth it unless you can do it easily and make it look natural. Your EV would probably increase by less than 1%.
I don't think you need to know it exactly. Borderline index plays can be made incorrectly on occasion with almost no impact on EV. And scrambling isn't always bad -- you can pretend you don't know basic strategy or you're scared of taking the dealer's bust card on your 12 v 2.Originally Posted by D.A.
Last edited by Purple Rain; 07-07-2013 at 01:59 PM.
There's a big difference between 3,4 and 5 like you mentioned previously.
I guess it comes down to how you approach the game. While it's true being off by small amounts might have only a minimal impact, that's a slippery slope and not something we are comfortable with when we play. It doesn't take that much mental effort to calculate the TC so why settle for anything but the most accurate info you can get? Counting is already a small enough edge.
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