What if the dealer has 18 every hand.

[Purple Rain]

Without simulating it, this game seems very profitable with a simple counting system. You'd have three automatic winning hands, including one that pays 3-2, and no automatic losing hands.

[21gunsalute]

Without simulating it, this game seems very profitable with a simple counting system. You'd have three automatic winning hands, including one that pays 3-2, and no automatic losing hands.

Uh, actually every hand would be a losing hand unless you pull 18-21.

[Gronbog]

I modified my software to simulate this game and it generated the following strategy which yields a 12.29% player edge:

http://gronbog.org/results/blackjack...rategy-18.html

Notes:

• Hover your mouse over a given cell to see the simulated EV for each action which was considered.
• Making a play on blackjack was not considered. The only possible play which could improve on the 3:2 payout would be to double. However, this play would not have been recommended anyway, since doubling on soft 21 (can only occur after splitting) is a negative EV play.
• The strategy for splitting aces assumes 1 card on each.
• Other pairs may be split 3 times for a total of 4 hands.

[shadroch]

I modified my software to simulate this game and it generated the following strategy which yields a 12.29% player edge:

http://gronbog.org/results/blackjack...rategy-18.html

Notes:

• Hover your mouse over a given cell to see the simulated EV for each action which was considered.
• Making a play on blackjack was not considered. The only possible play which could improve on the 3:2 payout would be to double. However, this play would not have been recommended anyway, since doubling on soft 21 (can only occur after splitting) is a negative EV play.
• The strategy for splitting aces assumes 1 card on each.
• Other pairs may be split 3 times for a total of 4 hands.

Thank you very much.

[njrich]

I think there are some errors on this site eg.

We also need to recall an important piece of information. The actual true count is the one that you are counting in the game. You need to pay attention to the running count. You can calculate and find the running count by taking the true count and dividing that number by the number of decks in play. For example, a true count of +4 in a 4 deck game has a running count of only +1. So you need to make your betting decisions based on your running count


http://www.lolblackjack.com/blackjack/probability-odds/

[njrich]

I said I wasn't sure about it's reliability. Never heard of the site and am skeptical of unproven sources of info. I figured their dealer totals looked about right. So I used that table since it was almost exactly what we needed to get a glimpse of the games potential.

That wasn't directed towards you three. I was curious as usual lol.
So I checked it out and came across that written in the card counting section.

[21gunsalute]

Check the chart at the bottom of this link:

http://www.lolblackjack.com/blackjack/probability-odds/

I am not sure how reliable the source but it shows you getting:
21 at a frequency of 12.18%
20: 17.58%
19: 13.48%
18: 13.81%
busting 28.37%
hitting 17 both soft and hard 14.58%

You push 13.81%
you win 43.24%
you lose 28.37%
leaving 14.58% were you are hitting 17 either soft or hard. You would push some of these and win some but lose most. If you lost all your total losses would be 42.95% which is a winning game (win 43.24%). Obviously pushing some and winning some of these means your advantage would be higher than 0.365% that lose all 17's soft and hard would create.

If these figures are correct then a BS player would have a huge advantage off the top. Would counting then be a detriment?