Soft doubling -- BS doesn't make sense? ??

[RS]

BS for H17, 6D, DAS: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.p...rr=ns&peek=yes

A,2 & A,3 vs 5 or 6 is a double, but against a 4 it's a hit (no double). So, that kind of makes sense, initially, because the dealer is more likely to bust with a 5 or 6 and not as likely to bust with a dealer's 4 up. With an A,4 vs 4, it's a double.

But wait, let's look into this a bit further. Why wouldn't an A,2 or A,3 be a double against a 4? With an A,2, the only cards that actually help you are 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. A total of 5 cards. With an A,3, the only cards that help you are 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Again, total of 5 cards.

Now, with an A,4, the only cards that actually help you are 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 -- again, 5 cards.

By looking at the 3 hands (A,2 / A,3 / A,4) we realize they are all the same hands, because there are only 5 cards that help each of them.


So, what causes the difference?


PS: I'm assuming the reason why you double A,6's / A,7's / A,8 is because one of those "5 cards" is a ten, so there are actually 8 cards, not 5.

[tawny]

Its not a question of are they equal in doubling value when comparing A/2 and A/3 to A/4. A/2 or A/3 could be equal or even more valuable doubling than A/4. But you are comparing the option on each hand whether hitting or doubling has more value. With A/2 for instance you could draw an A,2,3,or 4 and for all of these you would want another hit. but for A/4 only if you draw an A or 2 would you want another hit. So for A/2 and A/3 hitting is just slightly superior to doubling.

[tawny]

I just looked it up...

A/2 v 4 Hit = +.1043 Dbl= +.0706

A/3 v 4 Hit = +.0827 Dbl= +.0697

A/4 v 4 Hit = +.0607 Dbl= +.0652

So A/2 is clearly the best hand of these 3 hands. And is more profitable to double than A/4, but hitting is superior to doubling when you have A/2.

[tawny]

Its interesting though the difference in value Doubling A/2 and A/4 .0706 to .0652. I see why hitting is superior to doubling for both A/2 and A/3 for the reason i mentioned. But i cant see why there is that big a difference in doubling between those hands for the reason you mentioned. I wouldnt think in a shoe game with so many cards that the couple cards in your hand could change it that much. Like you said same amount of cards you can get to improve between all 3 hands. Its not that much difference in value but still i would think the difference would be like .0000005 or something like that.

[bebe]

Interesting as last two weeks I have been getting crushed on soft doubles,I know it variance and selective memory but
it happens more then I would think is normal. I still play it the correct way but was thinking of just soft doubling against dealer
5 and 6...ok I wont do that but I thought about.

[tawny]

Which ones were they, remember?, or just all different? Obviously its just variance and a string of bad luck but some are much stronger than others.
The ones where drawing a 10 card makes your hand are always by far the strongest. Funny that regular players never want to mess with doubling A/7.

Strongest soft doubles in order are-


A/9
A/8
A/7
A/6
A/2
A/3
A/4
A/5

For some like A/9 usually standing is better obviously but those are still the strongest for doubling.

[bebe]

I really dont remember exact ones just seemed to loose about 70% of them but funny thing I was killing the pair splits all day
Selective memory again seems like I get alot of 7 splits. Like I said I will play it the correct way but soft doubles are on my
list of OK lets see what happens this time.

[tawny]

I know what your saying. Is it our selective memory or do things run in streaks lol! I know the math predicts the streaks will happen but still! I can almost forgive the players who come to believe nonsensical things by just observing things and associating different outcomes with those things. We know better and still sometimes those streaks have you wondering.

[TheHypnoToad]

I can almost forgive the players who come to believe nonsensical things by just observing things and associating different outcomes with those things

Totally. Humans (and animals in general) are not evolved to deal well with highly random information. Our brains are over-optimised for learning and draw conclusions too quickly and with not enough data. So even quite rational people (like APs!) are often fighting their own instincts when doing the right thing. I personally have some doubles that I hate doing, probably because I have randomly lost more of them than average...but even knowing this, it can still sometimes be hard to push out the money! Stupid human brain!!

Even pigeons have the same trouble, the idiots! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B._F._S...itious_Pigeons

[D.A.]

The key cards are the difference. For you hand of A2 your dream card is a 9, A3 it is an 8 and for A$ it is a 7. What does your count tell you about the density of those key cards?

I normally dream of 21's, not 12's. Those are more like nightmares.

[iCountNTrack]

BS for H17, 6D, DAS: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.p...rr=ns&peek=yes

A,2 & A,3 vs 5 or 6 is a double, but against a 4 it's a hit (no double). So, that kind of makes sense, initially, because the dealer is more likely to bust with a 5 or 6 and not as likely to bust with a dealer's 4 up. With an A,4 vs 4, it's a double.

But wait, let's look into this a bit further. Why wouldn't an A,2 or A,3 be a double against a 4? With an A,2, the only cards that actually help you are 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. A total of 5 cards. With an A,3, the only cards that help you are 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Again, total of 5 cards.

Now, with an A,4, the only cards that actually help you are 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 -- again, 5 cards.

By looking at the 3 hands (A,2 / A,3 / A,4) we realize they are all the same hands, because there are only 5 cards that help each of them.


So, what causes the difference?


PS: I'm assuming the reason why you double A,6's / A,7's / A,8 is because one of those "5 cards" is a ten, so there are actually 8 cards, not 5.

You cannot really "rationalize" optimum playing decisions because they are based on the numerous possible outcome combinations for both the player and dealer hands

[Ouchez]

For you gents, ladies, wondering about the wisdom of soft doubling, (using Hi-LO shoe) I would first suggest to weigh the TC you are looking at, and don't hesitate to try a few sessions weighing that factor as to double or just hit away,,,,,,,or for a few sessions just hit away and not double them, see the outcome, it is interesting for sure.

Also on split aces know your indice plays, they can be most important, and fun.

Ouchez

[NT21]

Grosjean put it best when he wrote, "BS is something more to be memorized than understood... There is nothing to understand!" Players are always wanting to understand it, but all that one needs to know is that each BS decision "produces a higher expectation than any other option."