Rate of Ruin?

**Preferrd** · 06-04-2013, 08:24 PM

I'm really confused about the concept of RoR. Its a % of what? The number of times you can expect to go bankrupt given a bankroll in terms of % of infinity?

Also, how can you compare normal RoR with the RoR on a trip where you only play maybe 500 hands?

**shadroch** · 06-04-2013, 08:46 PM

Are you talking about Risk of Ruin?

Its the chances of you doubling your bankroll vs going broke.

RS · 06-04-2013, 09:00 PM

^ It's the chance you go broke before doubling your bankroll. If your ROR is 5%, then you have a 5% chance of going broke and not doubling your BR.

**Intermediate** · 06-05-2013, 09:56 AM

The RoR that is typically referred to in bankroll, unit and bet sizing discussions is a "lifetime" Risk of Ruin. This refers to your risk of losing your bank before doubling over a lifetime of play. Trip Ruin refers to the risk of losing your trip bank during a "trip", or fixed period of time/#of hands, before reaching a predefined goal. The longer your trip (the more hands you play) the higher your Risk of Trip Ruin. CVCX and BJRM will compute/estimate the Risk of Trip Ruin for a particular game, counting system, trip bank, unit size, and bet schedule.

**G Man** · 06-05-2013, 03:51 PM

RoR has nothing to do with doubling it or not. It's the "lifetime" Risk of Ruin, period.
View a 1% RoR like this: For a predetermined strategy, if you never resize your bets, for every 100 players doing this, only one will go bankrupt while the 99 others will get an infinite growing wealth of their bankroll.

**mofungoo** · 06-05-2013, 06:48 PM

ROR=ROD/1-ROD

where ROR is total risk of ruin
ROD is the chance of doubling a bank.

**Preferrd** · 06-05-2013, 07:17 PM

Yes, I was referring to "risk of ruin" sorry. I haven't gotten to the bookstore to buy "Blackjack Attack" which I have been told has very good risk of ruin analyses. I've been looking for background on it online but haven't been able to find sufficient information to be able to calculate on my own.

Is it possible to calculate a trip risk of ruin with a simple equation if life time ROR is known along with trip bank and number of hands to be played?

**G Man** · 06-05-2013, 07:17 PM

This is not what we are talking about, we are talking about the RoR formula. The RoR formula isn't for "Ruin or doubling".
Read BJA3 Chapter 8

The very first question by Preferrd was on the definition or RoR and what it was, nowhere he was asking "what's the chances of going broke before doubling my bankroll?"