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Thread: Is Advantage Play dangerous for me?

  1. #1
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    Is Advantage Play dangerous for me?

    I am a very novice card counter and casino visitor in general. I've only counted in a casino environment a handful of times, but each of these times I savored every minute of it.

    I love the entertainment aspect of casinos, the possibility of easy money, of a spree of great variance. I like the girls, friendly dealers, occasional bonding with strangers at the tables, and all the pretty lights.
    Sometimes when I'm bored I'll find a documentary about Vegas or "whales" or blackjack and watch through it. It seems that I am overly fascinated with the whole casino environment.
    Is this a problem? Does it fade with time?
    In my first session I left down $200. This was a lot for me as a red chipper, but I remembered the constant admonishments to stick to my spread, bet with the count, etc. and as a result refrained from chasing losses and was content to head home a loser for the day. So it seems I have at least a little bit of self control, and I like to think that I have a great deal, but there is now way to know definitively as it hasn't truly been tested yet (no big win or big loss).

    Based on this, do you all think it would be +EV to walk from counting for a few years?
    If one were a disciplined AP playing at a constant advantage, would an addiction be a positive thing?

  2. #2
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    Yes, you are in danger, and you need to understand that danger, as it appears you do to some extent.

    The casino plays to emotions, needs and Psyche', they set traps every second for their guests,,,that is why I call them the "evil" casino.

    They care not if they destroy you, and the Gov. could care less too.

    Ouchez

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by FalseCount View Post
    Based on this, do you all think it would be +EV to walk from counting for a few years?
    If one were a disciplined AP playing at a constant advantage, would an addiction be a positive thing?
    These questions cannot be answered as quickly as you'd like. Whether you should walk away or not depends on what your ultimate goals are w/ AP and casinos, in general. It is correct that you currently tend to have obsessive and addictive tendencies, the question is what are you willing to do with them.

    In other words, if you're willing to put in the time and effort to learn the game(s) inside-out, then the obsessiveness and persistence can lead to a great future with great success. However, if you go to battle unprepared, both mentally and financially, your current fascinations will most likely ruin you.

    To answer your question, if one were a disciplined AP... an "addiction" would be non-existent. Meaning, there would be no such thing as an addiction, as a disciplined AP only plays when s/he has an edge and considers this a JOB, a career, and is not fascinated w/ the lights, glamour, and glitz. S/he is NOT an "action-junkie", and can go days and sometimes weeks without playing, if a positive opportunity does not present itself.

    As an aside, reading the beginning of your post reminded me a lot of my early days of AP. I too, was intrigued by the lights, action, easy money, atmosphere, etc. etc... It all went to S#$% however. It is unavoidable, the more hours you put in, the sooner you will run into that extended run of bad-variance that will just turn your stomach. The longer that run lasts, the more you will question yourself, your games, your abilities, etc. The glitz and glamour days will quickly fade and you will get sick of casinos and realize them for what they really are, temples of doom and sorrow, just waiting to squeeze every last cent from the weak, elderly, and uninformed.

    As far as the casinos go, they really go out of their way to make this a personal thing, between us vs them. They are more than happy to court you with free rooms, drinks, buffets, show tixx as long as you play like a complete moron and throw your hard-earned money at them... BUT, as soon as you demonstrate some sort of knowledge in play, meaning you're not a total Ploppy, they are quick to end the romance and back you off, take counter-measures against you, and possibly 86 you.

    You tell me where the initial attraction for the casinos went at this point. My advice, learn and perfect your skill w/o playing while simultaneously adding to your exisiting BR from your real job. This will increase your skill level and confidence by being better financially backed and being psychologically able to weather a storm in case of negative flux.

    If you get this far, then the initial response to this post kicks-in... what is it that you want to do w/ your new-found knowledge of AP?
    “You aren’t making money until your money is making money.”

  4. #4


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    If you are tempted towards over-betting to chase losses, or anything else that you have been advised against, here is some advice that might help:

    You need to understand the mathematics of what you are doing well enough that those things are no longer tempting. I don't mean that you have to study the actual equations, but you need to be familiar with some of the relevant mathematical results. Risk of ruin is a good example - if you have accepted a certain RoR, and determined your bet spread accordingly, you should be very conscious that as soon as you start to over-bet, you are not playing with the RoR you originally accepted, and you are effectively flying blind. This concept should be so clearly fixed in your head that you simply not attracted to the idea of betting incorrectly.

    I hope that's clear enough, but if not, here's a simpler example which might be usefully illustrative. In your visits to casinos, I'm sure you've seen novice players wavering about a decision like, say, 16v7. They might have heard that 'the book' says to hit. The dealer might be telling them to hit. They might even understand, on some level, that the odds are better if they hit. But they stand, because they have a big bet out and they know that if they take another card, chances are they will bust - taking a card on 16 can be scary. To anyone who properly understands basic strategy and what it means, this fear seems dumb. Now, standing instead of hitting because of fear is something you would never do, I hope. But what I want to suggest is that if you understand what you are doing well enough, none of the potential mistakes you could make should seem appealing, in the same way that standing on 16v7 doesn't seem appealing. Teaching yourself to find bad plays unappealing is better, in my opinion, than teaching yourself to be disciplined enough to avoid bad plays despite finding them appealing. If that makes sense.

    Also:

    Quote Originally Posted by KJ
    I measure the results of each session in EV rather than money actually won or lost. That way every session is a winning session and in the end the two will come back in line with each other
    This signature sparked a debate on these forums a while back, about whether it makes sense to be happy when you lose money, as long as you know you played well. I don't remember what we decided, but one thing is clear: regardless of how you feel about the lost money, you should definitely be happy about playing well. If playing with high EV (within RoR constraints) is your goal, it might be easier to avoid making bad decisions out of greed or desperation.

    That's my philosophy, and I hope it helps you. I agree with Ouchez that understanding your danger is a good first step. Don't get complacent.

  5. #5
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    First thing is to lose the idea of easy money. There is nothing easy about making money playing blackjack. The hours are long, and the work conditions are less than optimum. you'll never become a whale by playing blackjack.
    Start to look at it as a part time job with no benefits.
    Let me die in my sleep like my Grandfather.
    Not screaming in agony like his passengers.

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