Hello all. Finally bought BJA3, and I'm looking forward to learning a lot from Don's Domain. Yet, tis better to give than receive, so I thought I'd throw this out for y'all's consideration. Came up with it a while back, but didn't want to post it on free pages.

Let's say you are playing basic strategy while you wait to predict aces. You know an ace is coming next round, but as you shove out 42.08% of your bankroll, you get this queazy feeling inside. You're sure you've seen a lot of tens come out already. Ever since you were a kid, momma has been telling you that each of those aces will cost you .51% of your edge. But mom never knew you'd run off and become an ace tracker. . .

I'm sure it won't surprise anybody that tens are much more valuable to an ace tracker than a card counter. I wanted to know exactly how much, and I couldn't find the information anywhere, so I did some simming. Here's what I came up with: 
 

eors GIVEN an Ace in Hand 

2	0.76% 

3	0.65% 

4	0.86% 

5	1.12% 

6	0.77% 

7	0.52% 

8	0.26% 

9	-0.09% 

10	-1.68% 

J	-1.68% 

Q	-1.68% 

K	-1.68% 

A	2.20% 

SumSqrs:	0.20% 

Full Deck:	52.65% 

 

I'll leave the commentary for others who are interested, but here's one application of this research: 

 

        eor     tag 

2	0.76%	1 

3	0.65%	1 

4	0.86%	1 

5	1.12%	1 

6	0.77%	1 

7	0.52%	1 

8	0.26%	0 

9	-0.09%	0 

10	-1.68%	-2 

J	-1.68%	-2 

Q	-1.68%	-2 

K	-1.68%	-2 

A	2.20%	2 

Betting Correlation:	98.62% 

Avg. Value per TC point:0.85% 

 

Hope this proves valuable to someone, and that it stimulates some sort of discussion!