How does bet spreading and counting effect the range of outcomes for playing a typical shoe game?
I would expect counting with bet ramping to alter the distribution of results from a normal distribution attained from a flat bet basic strategy approach to something different.

I've read often quoted statistics about blackjack, the average expected win rate and standard deviation, which is approximately 11 times the win rate for a skilled counter. These statistics are the summarization/averages of tens of millions of hands played.

Those stats are fine, but they really don't help me appreciate fully what is likely to happen to me in the short run--that is while I am playing 10 hours of more over a weekend or two. Ultimately, this all ties into risk a player takes on. But, you folks have addressed so many questions in your years, I think perhaps you might have the answer for this one, and posted it somewhere.

I wonder if there is any statistics available in a frequency distribution form that would describe range of wins/losses in units for all hands played in shuffle? That is, if I were to play all hands for a million shuffles given a set of criteria, and chart those results on a graph, what would the graph look like? I suspect counting and bet variation alters results from the normal distribution, or bell curve.

Such a graph would have units loss/won as the X, or horizontal, axis, and number of occurances for that result as the Y, or vertical, axis.

From what I know about blackjack and statistics, I can make a few predictions for one set of playing rules, conditions and strategies, but I would prefer to see the actual results for only flat betting and basic strategy...what would the graphic or curve look like under other scenarios?

If I were to play a game with 6 decks, S17, DAS, LS and RSA, play all and flat bet with basic strategy, I would expect the frequency graphic to result in a perfect bell curve (or normal distribution) with the mean (average), median (half-way mark on X axis) and mode (most frequent result or highest point of curve on Y axis) at -.26% units.

But, if in the same game I use Hi-Lo with I18 and spread to 1-12 as the betting ramps used in Chpt 10 of Blackjack Attack, the mean would shift towards my expected value of 1.26% (which I got from bjstats.com), but where would the median and mode wind up, and how would the shape of the frequency graphic change? Would it still look like a bell curve, or would it become skewed to one side? Would the altitude of the mode change?

And then of course, how would the graphic change if one played the same game White Rabbit style with a 1-8 spread?

I guess my feeling when playing blackjack are somewhat like a batter in baseball. When I get a hit (average win) I am happy, when I hit a homer (win big!) I am overflowing, and when I don't reach base (lose) I am discouraged. And most times I will not win and I must count on big wins to offset the more frequent small losses. Thus, seeing some analysis like the above described could help one to cope with the grind of playing and the grief of a losing hand.

Anyone know of where I could find a table with the above data, or a graphic showing it? (Will this be in BJA3?)

Thanks