Conditions: 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,C22,5000 million rounds,heads up.
Indices were calculated for each level of pen.
I) Penetration = 4/6
1) Red Seven (counting R7's as +1 & B7's as 0) in RC mode
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
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1 - 4 0.352 24.283 13.53 476540 1.45 2.10 1676.29 1.691 5.966 1.000
1 - 8 1.153 38.333 13.53 110471 3.01 9.05 1274.06 2.228 7.849 1.000
1 - 12 1.843 50.657 13.53 75539 3.64 13.24 1392.28 2.662 7.182 1.000
1 - 16 2.459 61.705 13.53 62949 3.99 15.89 1548.17 3.040 6.459 1.000
1 - 20 3.048 72.408 13.53 56446 4.21 17.72 1720.29 3.403 5.813 1.000
2) K-O
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
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1 - 4 0.303 23.177 13.53 586192 1.31 1.71 1774.47 1.611 5.635 1.000
1 - 8 1.063 36.287 13.53 116463 2.93 8.59 1238.36 2.084 8.075 1.000
1 - 12 1.720 47.881 13.53 77457 3.59 12.91 1332.58 2.467 7.504 1.000
1 - 16 2.315 58.472 13.53 63806 3.96 15.67 1477.01 2.806 6.770 1.000
1 - 20 2.866 68.346 13.53 56865 4.19 17.59 1629.81 3.119 6.136 1.000
3) Hi-Lo
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
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1 - 4 0.366 25.209 13.53 474568 1.45 2.11 1736.61 1.746 5.758 1.000
1 - 8 1.134 38.154 13.53 113166 2.97 8.84 1283.50 2.250 7.791 1.000
1 - 12 1.783 49.546 13.53 77219 3.60 12.95 1376.80 2.653 7.263 1.000
1 - 16 2.414 61.076 13.53 64023 3.95 15.62 1545.39 3.052 6.471 1.000
1 - 20 2.981 71.388 13.53 57367 4.18 17.43 1709.83 3.405 5.849 1.000
4) Red Seven (counting all 7's as 0.5) in RC mode (Level-2 system)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
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1 - 4 0.367 24.218 13.53 435673 1.52 2.30 1598.55 1.694 6.256 1.000
1 - 8 1.182 38.233 13.53 104615 3.09 9.56 1236.63 2.225 8.087 1.000
1 - 12 1.881 50.469 13.53 71963 3.73 13.90 1353.87 2.660 7.386 1.000
1 - 16 2.518 61.732 13.53 60111 4.08 16.64 1513.50 3.050 6.607 1.000
1 - 20 3.113 72.340 13.53 53991 4.30 18.52 1680.90 3.415 5.949 1.000
II) Penetration = 5/6
1) Red Seven (counting R7's as +1 & B7's as 0) in RC mode
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 4 0.736 23.818 13.53 104688 3.09 9.55 770.66 1.664 12.976 1.000
1 - 8 1.895 37.559 13.53 39301 5.04 25.45 744.59 2.193 13.430 1.000
1 - 12 2.888 49.611 13.53 29507 5.82 33.89 852.19 2.626 11.734 1.000
1 - 16 3.833 61.403 13.53 25663 6.24 38.97 983.66 3.044 10.166 1.000
1 - 20 4.744 72.916 13.53 23621 6.51 42.34 1120.64 3.450 8.923 1.000
2) K-O
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 4 0.651 22.192 13.53 116043 2.94 8.62 755.97 1.548 13.228 1.000
1 - 8 1.728 34.199 13.53 39179 5.05 25.52 676.93 1.966 14.773 1.000
1 - 12 2.664 45.066 13.53 28621 5.91 34.94 762.41 2.316 13.116 1.000
1 - 16 3.531 55.353 13.53 24575 6.38 40.69 867.73 2.642 11.524 1.000
1 - 20 4.352 65.203 13.53 22446 6.67 44.55 976.87 2.950 10.237 1.000
3) Hi-Lo
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 4 0.730 23.549 13.53 104045 3.10 9.61 759.58 1.673 13.165 1.000
1 - 8 1.840 36.199 13.53 38723 5.08 25.83 712.31 2.144 14.039 1.000
1 - 12 2.746 46.528 13.53 28701 5.90 34.84 788.24 2.500 12.687 1.000
1 - 16 3.551 55.848 13.53 24737 6.36 40.43 878.37 2.816 11.385 1.000
1 - 20 4.381 65.865 13.53 22603 6.65 44.24 990.23 3.159 10.099 1.000
4) Red Seven (counting all 7's as 0.5) in RC mode (Level-2 system)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 4 0.759 23.817 13.53 98370 3.19 10.17 747.00 1.664 13.387 1.000
1 - 8 1.932 37.423 13.53 37520 5.16 26.65 724.88 2.189 13.795 1.000
1 - 12 2.948 49.556 13.53 28267 5.95 35.38 833.16 2.628 12.002 1.000
1 - 16 3.904 61.244 13.53 24615 6.37 40.63 960.85 3.044 10.407 1.000
1 - 20 4.817 72.528 13.53 22671 6.64 44.11 1092.02 3.445 9.157 1.000
We can draw some interesting conclusions from these sims:
1) R7 does a pretty good job after all with mediocre pens. The problem is that nobody should play with pens smaller than 4.5/6
2) K-O is still better than Hi-Lo
3) D-R7 still outperforms R7 by more than 4%
4) Note that K-O with good pen and good spread can do better than D-R7.
Hope you enjoy the sims!
Sincerely,
Cac
PS: I'll leave to Norm the analysis of intermediate penetrations or other rules
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