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Thread: Dealing with Going on Tilt.

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  1. #1


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    You have to trust the math. Once you trust the math, you can let go of the emotions. It becomes mechanical.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Aslan's Avatar
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    A Couple Pointers

    I have to reiterate what ZenMaster_Flash said-- You may have an advantage at plus counts, but you are not favored to win any hand. You may think that the more losing hands you have at a plus count, the more likely you are to win one. On the contrary, you are still more likely to lose in each and every instance. Your only advantage derives from BJs (which are more plentiful in plus counts) and splits and double downs, which you are more likely to win. This fact alone should help you to put a damper on unrealistic expectations in plus counts. Expect to lose in the instant hand, but by the same token, expect to win more money than you lose over the long run. It's hard to drill that notion into one's skull, but that you must.

    A second thing I do is to try to avoid long sessions. If after 1 hour to 4 hours you are well ahead, don't get greedy; call it a day and enjoy your trip by doing something recreational-- visit the spa, take in a show, have a nice meal, go swimming, go shopping, watch a ball game, etc., etc. So many times I have ignored this strategy and decided to stay and double my money instead. The hours are important, because as you tire, you are likely to experience waning focus and consequent mistakes. Emotions that are easy to hold in check when you are well rested, are more difficult to control as you tire. Eventually, poor judgment creeps in and with it, oftentimes, steaming behavior.

    I hope these pointers help you. As in everything, YMMV.

    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bentley View Post
    You have to trust the math. Once you trust the math, you can let go of the emotions. It becomes mechanical.
    Perhaps the best advice I have EVER seen on a BJ site. Trusting the math is basically the only thing that got me through my horrendous 3x std deviation horror story at the beginning of my AP career.

  4. #4


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    As well as trusting the math, understand the implications of the math.

    Look at your confidence intervals. For instance, do you know within what ranges you can expect to be after a two hour session 95% of the time (e.g. between +$1000 or -$900)? Knowing this, might make the ensuing downswings easier to accept and deal with.
    Whether you believe you can or not, you're probably right.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Percy View Post
    As well as trusting the math, understand the implications of the math.

    Look at your confidence intervals. For instance, do you know within what ranges you can expect to be after a two hour session 95% of the time (e.g. between +$1000 or -$900)? Knowing this, might make the ensuing downswings easier to accept and deal with.
    Percy gives good advice but let me add. If you dont have CVCX or CVdata, you need it. These programs will show you exactly what your session swings will look like. I was in utter shock when I first saw the numbers of what my session swings were gonna look like. I remember playing before I knew this information and thought BJ was BS. Along with understanding the swings, put in alot of practice mirroring the parameters you put in CVCX or CVdata. You will watch the information come to life.

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