Sidekick: BJRM-OSS Question (SD and EV)

[Sidekick]

After purchasing BJA2 and now BJA3, it was apparent to me that the purchase of BJRM 2002 was critical to my BJ future.

Excuse my multiple threads/questions around using BJRM and/or questions around BJA3. This is why I signed up for this forum, to ask questions.

So, here we go...

1. I'm using KO, 6 DECK, $2,000 BANK, $10 (Unit $), 4.5/6 pen.

My results from BJRM are the following-
AvgBet-$16
W/L-53%
SD/Hnd=2.46, $25
SD/100=24.60, $246
Win/100-$8.80
78,972 hands need to be played to exceed EV and Sd1
ROR-56%

My IRC is 10 for KO. At 26 (Key for KO), my ev is 0.445 and sd = 1.13. At this point, BJRM tells me to bet 2 units instead of 1, which I have done.

My question is around whatev and sd mean in this case. BJA3 (pg. 16-17) has sd = 1.1 square root of 100 and ev = $bet multiplied 100 hands multiplied by 1.5 (advantage).

2. What is the difference b/w Win Rate and Advantage (1.5)?

Thanks,

Sidekick

[Don Schlesinger]

> 1. I'm using KO, 6 DECK, $2,000 BANK, $10
> (Unit $), 4.5/6 pen.

You don't mention your spread, which would be helpful.

> My results from BJRM are the following-
> AvgBet-$16
> W/L-53%
> SD/Hnd=2.46, $25
> SD/100=24.60, $246
> Win/100-$8.80
> 78,972 hands need to be played to exceed EV
> and Sd1
> ROR-56%

A 56% ROR is completely unacceptable. Whatever your spread was, you simply can't play the game this way. You need more bank for the $10 unit.

> My IRC is 10 for KO. At 26 (Key for KO), my
> ev is 0.445 and sd = 1.13. At this point,
> BJRM tells me to bet 2 units instead of 1,
> which I have done.

Why isn't it -20?

> My question is around what ev and sd mean in
> this case. BJA3 (pg. 16-17) has sd = 1.1
> square root of 100 and ev = $bet multiplied
> 100 hands multiplied by 1.5 (advantage).

You should be comparing what you're quoting to the Chapter 10 charts, not the pp. 16-17, material, which is for flat-betting BS.

E.v. of 0.445% means that, on average, you win that percentage of the wagers that you place. S.d. of 1.13 units means that, at that particular TC, the standard deviation for the wager placed 1.13 times the amount of the bet.

> 2. What is the difference b/w Win Rate and
> Advantage (1.5)?

Reread pp. 211-12 carefully.

Don

[Sidekick]

So, in regard to SD using BJRM, you would want the SD & EV to be HIGH.

In my eample using KO (1-5 spread), if at my Key Count my sd=1.154, ev= 0.335, my bet is $10 (2 units), what is the explanation of sd and ev in this case as a monetray value and/or strategy value?

Bankroll: $2,000 (400 units)
Spread: 1-5
Min Bet: $5
SD/Hnd:$69 (?)
SD/100: $21.05 (?)

Sidekick

[Don Schlesinger]

> So, in regard to SD using BJRM, you would
> want the SD & EV to be HIGH.

Sorry, no. You want e.v. to be high and s.d. to be low. E.v. is expectation. S.d. is standard deviation, volatility, or a measure of risk.

> In my eample using KO (1-5 spread), if at my
> Key Count my sd=1.154, ev= 0.335, my bet is
> $10 (2 units), what is the explanation of sd
> and ev in this case as a monetray value
> and/or strategy value?

I thought I explained that above. If you bet $10 with an e.v of 0.335%, you have a monetary positive expectation of 3.35 cents for that hand. But, you will have fluctuations around that e.v. of 1.154 x $10 = $11.54 per hand.

> Bankroll: $2,000 (400 units)
> Spread: 1-5
> Min Bet: $5
> SD/Hnd:$69 (?)
> SD/100: $21.05 (?)

The last two things that you wrote (with question marks) make no sense to me. How could your s.d. for 100 hands be 30% of your s.d. for one hand? What did you mean to write?

Don

[Sidekicks]

Don,

Can I send you some screenshots from BJRM. It would make more sense.

Sidekick

[Don Schlesinger]

> Don,

> Can I send you some screenshots from BJRM.
> It would make more sense.

Sure. Post them here.

Don

[Sidekick]

Don,

I do not see the ability to upload screenshots. With this said, I've taken BJA3 and BJRM hand in hand and played with the application for a couple of hours.

Along with a pen/paper, I was able to calculate both SD and Win Rate on paper first and check using BJRM. The best approach was to try flat betting first following by letting BJRM calculate my 1-5 spread and see how the bet inscrease per TC, in my case, RC, changes the SD and Win Rate overall.

To my surprise, changing the variables of a single game makes some major changes overall like using KO, 6 deck and going from S17 to H17 etc.

This program is invaluable. Just the ability to check the "frequnecy" per TC/RC or having the system calculate the Win Rate and SD in awesome. Than to take it to the next level by having it calculate the Trip Probabilities without me having to do it is nice.

I'm excited to finish off BJA3 ( Chapter 7 now) and play with BJRM.

Thanks Don