Norm Wattenberger: Surviving BJ Pays 2:1

[Norm Wattenberger]

The Question

We are lucky enough to be seated at a promotional game offering BJ pays 2:1. How do we play to keep from losing the seat?

The Sims

I ran six sets of sims: in five sets BJ pays 2:1, six deck, S17 and one set is a control.

[*]HiLo Spread 8:1
[*]HiLo flat bet
[*]Basic Strategy
[*]Bad BS (Hit 13 vs 2 & 3 and hit 12 vs. 4, 5 and 6)
[*]Awful BS (As above and no soft doubles and Insure all BJs)
[*]The control (HiLo Spread 8:1 with BJ pays the normal 3:2)[/list]

For each of the above, all penetrations from 26 to 104 cards cut off were simmed.



The Results



The link below displays a chart containing all sims. Penetration is along the x-axis and SCORE along the y-axis. The key is at the bottom of the chart. Obviously the 8:1 spread is the strong winner. The chart makes a few points:

[*]First, the control player (HiLo spread 8:1 BJ pays 3:2) is barely visible at the bottom of the chart.[*]Secondly, even an awful version of basic strategy fairs extremely well.[*]Don't worry about penetration.[*]Overall, if you have any concern about the casino identifying you as a good player and knocking you out of your chair - you have enormous leeway in how you play. These sims suggest that you should play worse than every other player at the table if you are worried about a barring.[/list]

BJ pays 2:1 Strategies Chart



Sim details



All sims were 500 million rounds, one player, quarter deck resolution, no cover, no errors. Optimal betting ramps were calculated for each penetration where called for. 13.5% risk on all sims.




QFIT

[Cacarulo]