Double21: ODP

[Double21]

Don I have a question about your work in Chapter 12 of BJA (2nd. Edition). One of the key assumptions for ODP was a three minute, six hand lag. I believe this assumption to be significantly optimistic for today's play in venues which offer good and numerous shoe games; e.g. Las Vegas. Because of the spread of CSM's, my belief is that the lag is considerably longer in duration---maybe 15 minutes. First; do you think the six minute assumption is too optomistic under today's conditions and, if so, what's a more reasonable assumption? If a new lag is appropriate, what's the impact on ODP?

[Don Schlesinger]

> Don I have a question about your work in
> Chapter 12 of BJA (2nd. Edition). One of the
> key assumptions for ODP was a three minute,
> six hand lag. I believe this assumption to
> be significantly optimistic for today's play
> in venues which offer good and numerous shoe
> games; e.g. Las Vegas. Because of the spread
> of CSM's, my belief is that the lag is
> considerably longer in duration---maybe 15
> minutes.

That seems pretty extreme to me. Put another way, if that's the best you can do, I'd find another casino!

> First; do you think the six minute
> assumption

You mean six-hand, three-minute asumption.

> is too optimistic under today's
> conditions

the games may have gotten tougher, but, ex the CSM machines, I don't think Wonging to find a game is that much different.

> and, if so, what's a more
> reasonable assumption? If a new lag is
> appropriate, what's the impact on ODP?

if a new lag is appropriate, it shoouldn't be MUCH longer than the one in the book. and, if we don't increase the time too much, the ODPS won't change appreciably.

Still, we have the means to redo them with longer lags. Ah, BJA3!! :-)

Don

[Double21]

> That seems pretty extreme to me. Put another
> way, if that's the best you can do, I'd find
> another casino!

> Well Don--I go and play Vegas regularily and we see things differently! Seriously, there are lots of CSM's in the better casinos and significantly fewer hand or machine shuffled games. You just don't get up any longer and immediately walk to another shoe game which is just starting. I strongly feel the three minute delay is no longer realistic--if it ever was in the first place. Take away these damn CSM disasters and you may have a good assumption. At any rate, if you need an excuse to get on with the BJA3 then use this one!

[Don Schlesinger]

I appreciate the feedback and will definitely consider studies that build in more lag time.

Don

[Nom du Jour]

> Because of the spread of CSM's,

I was in Vegas recently, and I hardly saw any of these machines, nor have I seen many in my local area. Are these things prevalent in AC or something? All the hype, fear, and loathing is apparently unwarranted.

[Double21]

> You must not have visited Bellagio; Mirage; Treasure Island; and many other higher end casinos. These places are stacked with them.

[Optimal Departer]

I can't say the quantitative effect, but qualitatively, if the lag is longer, then leaving your current table is not as attractive an option. Therefore, you will stay a bit longer, meaning that you will suffer a bit more in a poor count before giving up. So, the ODP counts will all rise a bit. To get an idea how big an impact this might have, you should look to see how much the ODPs go up when the 3-minute lag is added, compared to the no-lag case. I'm sorry this is vague; I hope it helps.

[Don Schlesinger]

> To get an idea how big an impact this
> might have, you should look to see how much
> the ODPs go up when the 3-minute lag is
> added, compared to the no-lag case. I'm
> sorry this is vague; I hope it helps.

It's not vague at all; it's exactly how to do it. But, my point is that the differences are not huge.

Also, I must reiterate that I think Double is exaggerating about the 15-minute lags. You need to understand that we're simply talking about finding a table where the dealer is about to shuffle, so that we may begin to back-count again. We're not talking about playing.

It takes about 10-11 minutes to deal and shuffle a 6-deck shoe (see BJA, p. 20). So, if there are many available tables, the MOST it could conceivably take would be 10 minutes, assuming every table just ended, and all are now about to shuffle together, which is a silly assumption. In reality, we'd find another table MUCH more quickly than that, no?

Don