fabmauro: early surrender

[fabmauro]

Hi, I'm from Italy and I'm a new one from the forum. First of all, my congratulation to Don for his Book: the best I ever read in my life.

I am writing because I would like to find out one interesting thing.

I founnd a private club where the rules are very good:

6 Deck Shoe
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Double Any 2 Card
Double After Split
Splitting Twice (3 Hands)
Split Aces Once (2 Hands) (no hit)
Early Surrender
European Hole Card, Lose All

First using trackjack i found an advantage for the player: 0,113%!
Then using "basic strategy engine" i find an advantage of 0,08.
And at last, using appendix C on page 492 in the Don's book, I found an advantage of 0,108. All those results don't seem to be so different....
But mostly i was supprised when I use a software "Professional Blackjack Analyzer" and after 20 milion of hands(basic strategy) I found a negative result!

So, now my question is: where is the truth?
And, with HILO using a very simple bet strategy:
1 <0
4 >=0, <2
8 >=2
what is mi % advantage?

Thanks so much for your attention!
Fab

[David Spence]

> But mostly i was supprised when I use a software
> "Professional Blackjack Analyzer" and after
> 20 milion of hands(basic strategy) I found a negative
> result!

A negative result is surprising--the rules you stated certainly give a basic strategy player a small advantage. I've never used PBA, but my guess would be that the basic strategy you're using for the sim either doesn't have the proper European no hole card adjustments or doesn't have the proper early surrender plays. For what it's worth, 20 million hands is a pretty small sim, but it's very unlikely that would account for the negative result.

> And, with HILO using a very simple bet strategy:
> 1 4 >=0, 8 >=2
> what is mi % advantage?

What is the penetration?

David

[fabmauro]

[fabmauro]

the penetration is about 75%

thanks!

[David Spence]

Assuming you can early surrender against any dealer upcard (ENHC with ES games often prohibit ES against ace, but you didn't specify this), the initial bet advantage for the rules and spread you indicated is about 1.3%. The true bet advantage (taking into account additional money from splits and doubles) is about 1.1%.

CVData doesn't have surrender for player hands less than 12 (and basic strategy is to early surrender 5, 6, and 7 against ace), so your actual advantage is somewhat higher.

David

[fabmauro]

Thanks David,

I can early surrender against any dealer upcard.
I have 50.000 euro for play a week (about 2500 hands), and the club consent me a spred max 1-10, and that I like a ROR about 5%, what is the best bet strategy (HILO)?
How much can be my average win?

[David Spence]

> Thanks David,

You're welcome.

> I can early surrender against any dealer upcard.

Sounds like a great game.

> I have 50.000 euro for play a week (about 2500 hands),
> and the club consent me a spred max 1-10, and that I
> like a ROR about 5%, what is the best bet strategy
> (HILO)?
> How much can be my average win?

Most of the current sim software won't calculate betting ramps for ES, given that it's such a rare rule these days, so I can't run the appropriate sim. I'd suggest using Chapter 10 of Blackjack Attack. I think the table for 6D, S17, DAS, LS, 4.0/6 would be close, though slightly conservative. It doesn't have ENHC, but it also doesn't have ES, so it's a slightly less favorable game than the one you're playing.

David

[Don Schlesinger]

> It doesn't have
> ENHC, but it also doesn't have ES, so it's a slightly
> less favorable game than the one you're playing.

A LOT less favorable!! Early surrender is worth 10 times as much to the basic strategist as is LS, and, although that isn't the case for the card counter, ES is the most important rule that is offered.

Don

[David Spence]

> A LOT less favorable!! Early surrender is worth 10
> times as much to the basic strategist as is LS, and,
> although that isn't the case for the card counter, ES
> is the most important rule that is offered.

Good point--"slightly less favorable" is quite the understatement :-)

[Zenfighter]

I think the table for 6D, S17, DAS, LS, 4.0/6 would be close, though slightly conservative.

At DD's archives you do have a "closer" one. :-)

Good haunt!

Sincerely,

Zf

[fabmauro]

Hi, I would like to know the HILO index for Early Surrender
6 Deck Shoe, Dealer Stands on Soft 17, European Hole.

Thanks!

[David Spence]

Here are the Hi-Lo indexes for early surrender against 10 and ace for 6D, ENHC, S17, DAS. These were generated using CVData. Surrender indexes against other dealer upcards aren't affected by ES or ENHC.

David

ES with ENHC

[fabmauro]

Thanks David,
I have CVdata: great!
My problem is about the index of
4,5,6,7,8 vs A
What do you think?