David Spence: Knowing dealer's draw card

[David Spence]

Has anyone calculated the player advantage if the dealer's third card is known? Specifically, what are the player advantages when the dealer's draw card is known to be an 8, 9, and 10? Obviously, this won't affect pat dealer hands, but, on average, there must be an advantage if it's known that the potential third card is high. In Busting Vegas, it's mentioned that a dealer draw card of 10 gives the player a 30% edge, but, given some of the technical inaccuracies in the book, I'd rather get an answer here. I'd also be curious to see what the advantages are for 8 and 9.

[Don Schlesinger]

> Has anyone calculated the player advantage if the
> dealer's third card is known? Specifically, what are
> the player advantages when the dealer's draw card is
> known to be an 8, 9, and 10? Obviously, this won't
> affect pat dealer hands, but, on average, there must
> be an advantage if it's known that the potential third
> card is high. In Busting Vegas , it's mentioned that
> a dealer draw card of 10 gives the player a 30% edge,
> but, given some of the technical inaccuracies in the
> book, I'd rather get an answer here. I'd also be
> curious to see what the advantages are for 8 and 9.

You don't care what the dealer's upcard is? Or, do you want 30 different answers?

Don

[David Spence]

> You don't care what the dealer's upcard is? Or, do you
> want 30 different answers?

Neither, I suppose. Before the hand is dealt, you know that the dealer's third card, if any, will be a 10 (or 9 or 8, with different answers, of course). What is your overall advantage before the hand is dealt, knowing this extra piece of information?

[Don Schlesinger]

> Neither, I suppose. Before the hand is dealt, you know
> that the dealer's third card, if any, will be a 10 (or
> 9 or 8, with different answers, of course). What is
> your overall advantage before the hand is dealt,
> knowing this extra piece of information?

I don't know thew answer, David, but the premise seems very far-fetched to me. How on earth -- or why -- would you know the dealer's third card BEFORE the hand is dealt? How do you know how you're going to play your undealt hand?? Isn't it much more likely that you somehow glimpsed the next card off the top of the deck, before the dealer dealt it to himself, or caught a look at the card about to be drawn from the shoe, as the dealer's third card?

Doesn't it make more sense to pose the question that way? The latter isn't all that hypothetical; it could exist, whereas your way seems terribly contrived to me.

Don

[David Spence]

> I don't know thew answer, David, but the premise seems
> very far-fetched to me. How on earth -- or why --
> would you know the dealer's third card BEFORE the hand
> is dealt? How do you know how you're going to play
> your undealt hand?? Isn't it much more likely that you
> somehow glimpsed the next card off the top of the
> deck, before the dealer dealt it to himself, or caught
> a look at the card about to be drawn from the shoe, as
> the dealer's third card?

Far-fetched though it may be, this technique is described in Busting Vegas. The player sees that the bottom card of a freshly shuffled stack is a 10, cuts that card to a known location, then steers that card to be the dealer's draw card. I understand that Busting Vegas isn't exactly the last word on advantage play, but the technique, even if difficult, at least sounds plausible.

David

[Don Schlesinger]

> Far-fetched though it may be, this technique is
> described in Busting Vegas. The player sees that the
> bottom card of a freshly shuffled stack is a 10, cuts
> that card to a known location, then steers that card
> to be the dealer's draw card. I understand that
> Busting Vegas isn't exactly the last word on advantage
> play, but the technique, even if difficult, at least
> sounds plausible.

Remotely. I don't doubt the possibility, but I wonder how you control the cards that you get for your own hand. I wonder how, if you need one more card to make it work, you hit your 20, or, if you need no more cards, you stand on your 6.

Don

[PCF]

[PrizeCar]

I don't exactly understand either. If you can accurately locate a card in a shoe, you would of course try to give yourself an Ace or a face.

However, there is a related situation I have noticed. Recently in a pitch game, I noticed the dealer start to separate the card from the deck, anticipating a "hit" decision from the person at 3rd base (I was at 2nd). I was able to see this card. It was about 3/4 of an inch offset from the deck. In this situation, it's not "hole carding" per se, but it is quite a lot of information.

What would one do with this information (assuming you were at third base, of course)?

Prize Car

[David Spence]

> I don't exactly understand either. If you can
> accurately locate a card in a shoe, you would of
> course try to give yourself an Ace or a face.

If the bottom card is an ace, yes, you should steer it to your own hand. If you can steer a 10, however, more advantage is gained by steering it to the dealer's draw card (~30% advantage on ALL of your hands that round) than to one of your own hands.