Russell Furney: Can't win

[Russell Furney]

I use Hi-Opt II count system with ace side count for double deck with a 1-4 bet spread and just can not win. I took a personal loan of $5000 to finally start my blackjack business and only have $1000 left after a couple months play. Within that time I have had only a few very small winning sessions, otherwise I lose $200-400 everyday. There must be something I am doing wrong, but I don't understand what. I own a dozen books that I study and constantly refer back to, including Don's BJA3. I practice using both Casino Verite software and physically on a homemade table. I even practice while at work because I am a dealer. Dealing is second nature for me now, I stay interested by counting my own cards and imagining what I would bet next or if I would deviate from the strategy. It seems crazy, but I lose all my high count bets. Today I'm playing, the last hand the running count reaches +15, 1.5 decks in, decent penetration, I place a $50 bet and get 8,8 into a 5. I split and get a 6 on one and a 5 on the other. Fine, the run count is now +20. I use multiplying true count conversion factors, so with only half a deck unseen the conversion factor is 2, multiplying the run count by 2 bringing the true count to a whopping +40, very difficult to obtain in only two decks. Anyways, back to the hand, with this count and no ten value showing, the hole card must be a ten, and I can rely on the dealer busting. No, the hole card is another 5, and the hit card is a 7. Can this really happen? Or please tell me I have severely misunderstood something for the years of study and practice I have put in before I decided to create this debt to put my obsession with this game into action. I know the information I have provided sounds like a string of bad luck, but the hand I described isn't the only absurd loss I have incurred, it's just a prime example of many hands that have ended in the same result, and the last one I played today after losing $400 just in that deck because the deck stayed positive and climbed to that ridiculously high count at the end, yet I lost every large bet that the count suggested. That is why I am convinced I am doing something wrong. I began studying Hi-Opt II after reading Kevin Blackwood's "Play Blackjack Like the Pros." He really stresses how powerful it is against handheld games, which double deck being my preferred table, and ready to finally get more serious, I decided to move up from the hi-lo I began counting with, and master the Hi-Opt. Yet I only have losing sessions to show for it. I am able to keep the count effortlessly, even hold a conversation. When I practice with the Casino Verite software, I leave all error messages on to make sure I make the correct bets and use all strategy indices. I don't know what more I need to be doing to win. I've become frustrated because I spent so many years learning. I became a dealer four years ago because I wanted to be around the game more, and learn more about the business and how to stay camouflaged as a counter. And when I finally feel smart enough to take advantage of the game, I get crushed. Please, any words of advice or encouragement. What more should I be doing?

Thanks...Russell

[Don Schlesinger]

What are the exact rules of the game you are playing, penetration, numbe rof people at the table, and what is the exact way in which you bet your money, including your unit size?

From this, we can get an hourly win rate and s.d.

Next, how many hours have you played, to lose your $4,000?

After we know all this, we'll take it from there.

Don

[Russell Furney]

> What are the exact rules of the game you are playing,
> penetration, numbe rof people at the table, and what
> is the exact way in which you bet your money,
> including your unit size?

> From this, we can get an hourly win rate and s.d.

> Next, how many hours have you played, to lose your
> $4,000?

> After we know all this, we'll take it from there.

> Don

I have been playing double deck, H17, DA2, DAS, Pen 65%. I always play heads up. My betting is 1 unit at TC of 1 or less, 2 units at TC 2, 3 at TC 3, and 4 at TC 4, with a unit size of $25. My total loss of $4000 has been after 32 hours of play. Hope I covered everything. Let me know if there is anything else you need. Thank you Don...

Russell

[Don Schlesinger]

> I have been playing double deck, H17, DA2, DAS, Pen
> 65%. I always play heads up. My betting is 1 unit at
> TC of 1 or less, 2 units at TC 2, 3 at TC 3, and 4 at
> TC 4, with a unit size of $25. My total loss of $4000
> has been after 32 hours of play. Hope I covered
> everything. Let me know if there is anything else you
> need. Thank you Don...

The count that you are using might have helped (!), but I'm going to assume Hi-Lo. I'll also make a comment on your bet ramp in a minute, but here we go:

If there were two other people at the table (a total of four hands), and with slightly better penetration (70/104 = 67%), your hourly win rate is $25.75 and your hourly s.d. is $521. For 32 hours, your e.v. is 32 x $25.75 = $824, and your s.d. is sqrt(32) x $521 = $2,947. Since you lost $4,000, you underperformed your e.v. by $4,824, and if you divide that by the s.d., you get 4824/2947 = 1.64. Such a standard deviation occurs 5% of the time, or once in 20.

So, if 20 people set out to play exactly as you have described one of them would lose $4,000 or more. Sadly, YOU'RE the one!

Now, it gets somewhat better, if that's the right word to use, because you stated that you always play alone. So, that's two hands per round, instead of four, which means that you play at roughly double the speed, per hour. So, it's as if you played 200 hands per hour, instead of 100. Now, hourly e.v. is $51.50 (so $1,648 for the 32 hours), and hourly s.d. is $737 (so $4,168 for the 32 hours).

Now, your $4,000 loss is an underperformance of $5,648, and that represents 5648/4168 = 1.36 s.d.s, which happens with probability = 8.7%, or once in 11.5.

Conclusion: You've been unlucky, but not to the point that it doesn't happen all the time!

Don

P.S. Your ramp is much too conservative for such a small spread. You should be betting 2 units at +1 and 4 units at +2 and higher. You'll win (maybe!) $64 an hour, with s.d. of $880, but I think it is worth the extra risk.

Write back with any further questions you may have, and ... better luck!