Hollywood: SORT OF A MATH QUESTION?

[Hollywood]

I'm asking this question because the other night I played about 7 hours and lost about 6 thousand.

It's not the loss that bothered me, but the fact that I lost it almost one hand at a time with a minimum bet on the table. Can you imagine (actually all of you can) droping 60 units one at a time. I think they were trying to rename SD.

Anyway, what surprised me was that in 7 hours of play I can count on one hand the amount of times I had an advantage. It was incredible.

I was wondering what the stats are on that.

When we all do our thing, how often are we supposed to see good counts?

The conditions were good, the pen excellent. It just seemed that the deck being rich in picture cards was quite rare. It was a very stange type of loss.

I always thought it was one out of 4 shoes that we were supposed to belong to us. This time it was one of 20.

Thank you,

Hollywood

[Don Schlesinger]

This was at one place? Not that it matters for the math, but just curious if you moved around or if this was all in one casino or even at one table.

In any event, if the edge begins at +1, then if you play all at, say, a 4.5/6, s17, das game, you have the edge, on average, about 27% of the time (BJA3, p. 236, Table 10.43).

Of course, what you're asking is somewhat different. How many times do we play a shoe straight through, from start to finish, and never have the advantage at any time? Would you believe that I've never been asked that question, never have seen the answer anywhere, and don't know what it is! And I certainly don't know what it is for, say, seven hours' worth of shoes!!

I'm gonna have to think about this one for a while.

Don

[Hollywood]

> This was at one place? Not that it matters for the
> math, but just curious if you moved around or if this
> was all in one casino or even at one table.

> In any event, if the edge begins at +1, then if you
> play all at, say, a 4.5/6, s17, das game, you have the
> edge, on average, about 27% of the time (BJA3, p. 236,
> Table 10.43).

> Of course, what you're asking is somewhat different.
> How many times do we play a shoe straight through,
> from start to finish, and never have the advantage at
> any time? Would you believe that I've never been asked
> that question, never have seen the answer anywhere,
> and don't know what it is! And I certainly don't know
> what it is for, say, seven hours' worth of shoes!!

> I'm gonna have to think about this one for a while.

> Don

Hi Don:

It was in 3 seperate casinos for 2 hours, 2 hours and 3 hours.

In the first 2 casino's I played at one table for 2 hours.

At the 3rd casino i played at 3 different tables to total the 7 hours.

I didn't mean to propose anything weird.

I just don't ever remember playing that long without getting any juice.

Like all of us, I play and wait until it's my turn. On this particular evening my turn was not coming.

Everytime I think i've seen it all in this game.

Something surprises me

Hollywood

[nycfudu]

If the count was neutral and you saw another dealer shuffling you should have just moved to another table.

I think around 45% of the time we stuck in TC=0 or the neutral zone which is negative EV.

Once I was wonging for about 3-4 hrs with no positive shoes! My feet hurt so bad I really needed a positive shoe :-) Get it? Shoe.. Feet.. Positive

[Don Schlesinger]

Your question has sent Norm and me scurrying to try to come up with an answer. You want to know something strange: The question is as simple and innocent as can be, but I can assure you that a) the answer has never before appeared in print anywhere, and b) I don't know what it is!

Question: In a shoe game, the TC is +1 or higher 27% of the time. What is the probability that we will play the whole shoe and never have an edge?

Guesses anyone?

Don

[Hollywood]

> If the count was neutral and you saw another dealer
> shuffling you should have just moved to another table.

> I think around 45% of the time we stuck in TC=0 or the
> neutral zone which is negative EV.

> Once I was wonging for about 3-4 hrs with no positive
> shoes! My feet hurt so bad I really needed a positive
> shoe :-) Get it? Shoe.. Feet.. Positive

This occured at all 5 tables I played at.

And the playing conditions for AC were excellent.

But on a positive note I was sitting lol.
Which, by the way I took for granted until I read your post.

Hollywood