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Thread: Cacarulo: The HALVES vs ZEN dispute

  1. #21
    JohnAuston
    Guest

    JohnAuston: any progress on this? *NM*


  2. #22
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Catch 22 without INSURANCE

    Sorry, I was a little short of time. Here are the sims:

    A) HALVES using C21 and NO INSURANCE

     
    play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 1 -0.325 11.615 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    1 - 2 0.053 16.270 13.53 9440241 0.33 0.11 4998.80 1.327 2.000 1.000
    1 - 3 0.416 20.488 13.53 242744 2.03 4.12 1009.43 1.540 9.907 1.000
    1 - 4 0.747 24.268 13.53 105682 3.08 9.46 788.93 1.707 12.675 1.000
    1 - 5 1.057 27.914 13.53 69743 3.79 14.34 737.18 1.855 13.565 1.000
    1 - 6 1.349 31.356 13.53 54043 4.30 18.50 728.92 1.989 13.719 1.000
    1 - 7 1.615 34.404 13.53 45396 4.69 22.03 733.01 2.103 13.642 1.000
    1 - 8 1.879 37.572 13.53 39973 5.00 25.02 751.19 2.221 13.312 1.000
    1 - 9 2.132 40.589 13.53 36260 5.25 27.58 772.89 2.332 12.939 1.000
    1 - 10 2.377 43.559 13.53 33572 5.46 29.79 798.10 2.440 12.530 1.000
    1 - 11 2.614 46.412 13.53 31530 5.63 31.72 824.12 2.543 12.134 1.000
    1 - 12 2.857 49.427 13.53 29933 5.78 33.41 855.14 2.652 11.694 1.000
    1 - 13 3.077 52.078 13.53 28649 5.91 34.91 881.45 2.747 11.345 1.000
    1 - 14 3.302 54.844 13.53 27591 6.02 36.24 910.99 2.846 10.977 1.000
    1 - 15 3.531 57.708 13.53 26708 6.12 37.44 943.07 2.949 10.604 1.000
    1 - 16 3.752 60.454 13.53 25959 6.21 38.52 974.02 3.047 10.267 1.000
    1 - 17 3.964 63.077 13.53 25316 6.29 39.50 1003.60 3.140 9.964 1.000
    1 - 18 4.178 65.729 13.53 24756 6.36 40.39 1034.18 3.235 9.670 1.000
    1 - 19 4.372 68.099 13.53 24264 6.42 41.21 1060.76 3.318 9.427 1.000
    1 - 20 4.570 70.540 13.53 23828 6.48 41.97 1088.87 3.404 9.184 1.000


    B) ZEN using C21 and NO INSURANCE

     
    play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 1 -0.315 11.617 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    1 - 2 0.053 16.704 13.5310109764 0.31 0.10 5311.17 1.357 1.883 1.000
    1 - 3 0.400 20.508 13.53 262447 1.95 3.81 1050.63 1.530 9.518 1.000
    1 - 4 0.717 24.141 13.53 113447 2.97 8.81 813.10 1.694 12.299 1.000
    1 - 5 1.010 27.613 13.53 74687 3.66 13.39 754.63 1.836 13.252 1.000
    1 - 6 1.295 31.134 13.53 57797 4.16 17.30 748.49 1.974 13.360 1.000
    1 - 7 1.557 34.281 13.53 48506 4.54 20.62 755.00 2.092 13.245 1.000
    1 - 8 1.812 37.450 13.53 42703 4.84 23.42 773.89 2.210 12.922 1.000
    1 - 9 2.054 40.421 13.53 38726 5.08 25.82 795.43 2.318 12.572 1.000
    1 - 10 2.302 43.584 13.53 35851 5.28 27.89 825.22 2.433 12.118 1.000
    1 - 11 2.522 46.276 13.53 33673 5.45 29.70 849.16 2.529 11.776 1.000
    1 - 12 2.749 49.152 13.53 31963 5.59 31.29 878.75 2.632 11.380 1.000
    1 - 13 2.982 52.154 13.53 30591 5.72 32.69 912.19 2.740 10.963 1.000
    1 - 14 3.188 54.731 13.53 29465 5.83 33.94 939.47 2.831 10.644 1.000
    1 - 15 3.400 57.418 13.53 28520 5.92 35.06 969.67 2.926 10.313 1.000
    1 - 16 3.615 60.193 13.53 27719 6.01 36.08 1002.14 3.024 9.979 1.000
    1 - 17 3.832 62.995 13.53 27032 6.08 36.99 1035.72 3.124 9.655 1.000
    1 - 18 4.026 65.455 13.53 26435 6.15 37.83 1064.20 3.210 9.397 1.000
    1 - 19 4.224 67.987 13.53 25909 6.21 38.60 1094.34 3.299 9.138 1.000
    1 - 20 4.425 70.579 13.53 25445 6.27 39.30 1125.82 3.390 8.882 1.000


    As you can appreciate it is clear that without insurance HALVES is far better than ZEN.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  3. #23
    JohnAuston
    Guest

    JohnAuston: So . . .

    So now we have to decide why YOUR Insurace sims show the opposite of Norm and my Insurance sims.

    What can account for the HUGE gain that Zen gets, in your sims, from only the Insurance index.

    It does not make sense to me that counting the 9 would throw off proper detection of Insurance so much.

  4. #24
    JohnAuston
    Guest

    JohnAuston: Are you sure . . .

    . . . that in your Insurance sims, it pays only 3 to 2?

    - John

  5. #25
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Correction

    "Are you sure ... that in your Insurance sims, it pays only 3 to 2?"

    You mean 2 to 1.

    Don

  6. #26
    JohnAuston
    Guest

    JohnAuston: I was thinking of a Blackjack! :( *NM*


  7. #27
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Really?! :-)

    I'd have never guessed! :-)

    Don

  8. #28
    JohnAuston
    Guest

    JohnAuston: Isn't anyone going to comment?

    We have sims purporting to show that Zen's Insurance advantage over Halves (Doubled) is so large, that it turns an across-the-board disadvantage into an across-the-board advantage.

    Can this be?

    Is this how one should look at the issue:?

    Key card tags in play for Insurance index:

    Ace: Zen -1 Halves -2
    10 Zen -2 Halves -2
    9 Zen 0 Halves -1

    Most important thing for Insurace is knowledge of 10's

    For this, Halves is worse two ways: counts ace same as 10, and counts 9 in with 10's, so the 10's richness can be "polluted" with excess aces and 9's.

    Zen will never be "polluted" by 9's , and excess aces will only pollute at half the rate of Halves.

    So Havles will have you taking Insurance when you shouldn't, and with bigger bets out there.

  9. #29
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Insurance insights (no sims) on Theory Page *NM*


  10. #30
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Halves /Zen 1000 M Rounds for each one

    6dks, s17, das, spl3, spa1, 5/6, Catch 22 as per SBA

    TCs = floored down

    TC resolution = ? deck

    Halves -1 .5 1 1 1.5 1 .5 0 -.5 ?1 (adjusted per full deck)

    Zen -1 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2 (adjusted per full deck)

    1000 Million rounds for each one.

    Software used: CVCX


     
    Bet spread K.B Av.B %W/L $/100 SD/100 RoR N0 DI SCORE

    HALVES

    PA Opt.(1-12) 740 33.69 1.13 38.00 638.55 13.5 26328 6.16 37.97
    PA Opt.(1-16) 837 33.96 1.30 44.00 666.02 13.5 22722 6.63 44.00

    ZEN

    PA Opt.(1-12) 743 32.79 1.12 36.79 585.26 13.5 27215 6.06 36.74
    PA Opt.(1-16) 838 33.06 1.29 42.71 656.86 13.5 23417 6.53 42.70




    Sincerely

    Zenfighter

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