Cacarulo: The HALVES vs ZEN dispute

[Cacarulo]

> Well, what say we just see, eh?

> Some very smart people say it is obvious
> that HALVES outperforms ZEN even with
> Insurance.

> Please. Re-run the sims that show Zen
> winning, but just disable the Insurance
> index for both Zen and Halves.

> Then, if ALL the advantage goes away, we
> will know that that was it, and can debate
> whether or not that makes sense.

Seems fair.

> But if Zen still wins, then we will have
> learned something important that will let us
> continue further analysis into the
> "anomaly".

> What would be the reason to NOT re-run the
> sims without Insurance?

There's no problem, I'll do it.

Sincerely,
Cac

[JohnAuston]

[Cacarulo]

Sorry, I was a little short of time. Here are the sims:

A) HALVES using C21 and NO INSURANCE

 

 play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 

 spread   ev/h   sd/h   ror%      n0    di  score      ekb   avb    unit  kelly 

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

 1 -  1 -0.325 11.615 100.00       0  0.00   0.00 10000.00 1.000   1.000  0.000 

 1 -  2  0.053 16.270  13.53 9440241  0.33   0.11  4998.80 1.327   2.000  1.000 

 1 -  3  0.416 20.488  13.53  242744  2.03   4.12  1009.43 1.540   9.907  1.000 

 1 -  4  0.747 24.268  13.53  105682  3.08   9.46   788.93 1.707  12.675  1.000 

 1 -  5  1.057 27.914  13.53   69743  3.79  14.34   737.18 1.855  13.565  1.000 

 1 -  6  1.349 31.356  13.53   54043  4.30  18.50   728.92 1.989  13.719  1.000 

 1 -  7  1.615 34.404  13.53   45396  4.69  22.03   733.01 2.103  13.642  1.000 

 1 -  8  1.879 37.572  13.53   39973  5.00  25.02   751.19 2.221  13.312  1.000 

 1 -  9  2.132 40.589  13.53   36260  5.25  27.58   772.89 2.332  12.939  1.000 

 1 - 10  2.377 43.559  13.53   33572  5.46  29.79   798.10 2.440  12.530  1.000 

 1 - 11  2.614 46.412  13.53   31530  5.63  31.72   824.12 2.543  12.134  1.000 

 1 - 12  2.857 49.427  13.53   29933  5.78  33.41   855.14 2.652  11.694  1.000 

 1 - 13  3.077 52.078  13.53   28649  5.91  34.91   881.45 2.747  11.345  1.000 

 1 - 14  3.302 54.844  13.53   27591  6.02  36.24   910.99 2.846  10.977  1.000 

 1 - 15  3.531 57.708  13.53   26708  6.12  37.44   943.07 2.949  10.604  1.000 

 1 - 16  3.752 60.454  13.53   25959  6.21  38.52   974.02 3.047  10.267  1.000 

 1 - 17  3.964 63.077  13.53   25316  6.29  39.50  1003.60 3.140   9.964  1.000 

 1 - 18  4.178 65.729  13.53   24756  6.36  40.39  1034.18 3.235   9.670  1.000 

 1 - 19  4.372 68.099  13.53   24264  6.42  41.21  1060.76 3.318   9.427  1.000 

 1 - 20  4.570 70.540  13.53   23828  6.48  41.97  1088.87 3.404   9.184  1.000

B) ZEN using C21 and NO INSURANCE

 

 play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 

 spread   ev/h   sd/h   ror%      n0    di  score      ekb   avb    unit  kelly 

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

 1 -  1 -0.315 11.617 100.00       0  0.00   0.00 10000.00 1.000   1.000  0.000 

 1 -  2  0.053 16.704  13.5310109764  0.31   0.10  5311.17 1.357   1.883  1.000 

 1 -  3  0.400 20.508  13.53  262447  1.95   3.81  1050.63 1.530   9.518  1.000 

 1 -  4  0.717 24.141  13.53  113447  2.97   8.81   813.10 1.694  12.299  1.000 

 1 -  5  1.010 27.613  13.53   74687  3.66  13.39   754.63 1.836  13.252  1.000 

 1 -  6  1.295 31.134  13.53   57797  4.16  17.30   748.49 1.974  13.360  1.000 

 1 -  7  1.557 34.281  13.53   48506  4.54  20.62   755.00 2.092  13.245  1.000 

 1 -  8  1.812 37.450  13.53   42703  4.84  23.42   773.89 2.210  12.922  1.000 

 1 -  9  2.054 40.421  13.53   38726  5.08  25.82   795.43 2.318  12.572  1.000 

 1 - 10  2.302 43.584  13.53   35851  5.28  27.89   825.22 2.433  12.118  1.000 

 1 - 11  2.522 46.276  13.53   33673  5.45  29.70   849.16 2.529  11.776  1.000 

 1 - 12  2.749 49.152  13.53   31963  5.59  31.29   878.75 2.632  11.380  1.000 

 1 - 13  2.982 52.154  13.53   30591  5.72  32.69   912.19 2.740  10.963  1.000 

 1 - 14  3.188 54.731  13.53   29465  5.83  33.94   939.47 2.831  10.644  1.000 

 1 - 15  3.400 57.418  13.53   28520  5.92  35.06   969.67 2.926  10.313  1.000 

 1 - 16  3.615 60.193  13.53   27719  6.01  36.08  1002.14 3.024   9.979  1.000 

 1 - 17  3.832 62.995  13.53   27032  6.08  36.99  1035.72 3.124   9.655  1.000 

 1 - 18  4.026 65.455  13.53   26435  6.15  37.83  1064.20 3.210   9.397  1.000 

 1 - 19  4.224 67.987  13.53   25909  6.21  38.60  1094.34 3.299   9.138  1.000 

 1 - 20  4.425 70.579  13.53   25445  6.27  39.30  1125.82 3.390   8.882  1.000

As you can appreciate it is clear that without insurance HALVES is far better than ZEN.

Sincerely,
Cacarulo

[JohnAuston]

So now we have to decide why YOUR Insurace sims show the opposite of Norm and my Insurance sims.

What can account for the HUGE gain that Zen gets, in your sims, from only the Insurance index.

It does not make sense to me that counting the 9 would throw off proper detection of Insurance so much.

[JohnAuston]

. . . that in your Insurance sims, it pays only 3 to 2?

- John

[Don Schlesinger]

"Are you sure ... that in your Insurance sims, it pays only 3 to 2?"

You mean 2 to 1.

Don

[JohnAuston]

[Don Schlesinger]

I'd have never guessed! :-)

Don

[JohnAuston]

We have sims purporting to show that Zen's Insurance advantage over Halves (Doubled) is so large, that it turns an across-the-board disadvantage into an across-the-board advantage.

Can this be?

Is this how one should look at the issue:?

Key card tags in play for Insurance index:

Ace: Zen -1 Halves -2
10 Zen -2 Halves -2
9 Zen 0 Halves -1

Most important thing for Insurace is knowledge of 10's

For this, Halves is worse two ways: counts ace same as 10, and counts 9 in with 10's, so the 10's richness can be "polluted" with excess aces and 9's.

Zen will never be "polluted" by 9's , and excess aces will only pollute at half the rate of Halves.

So Havles will have you taking Insurance when you shouldn't, and with bigger bets out there.

[Zenfighter]

[Zenfighter]

6dks, s17, das, spl3, spa1, 5/6, Catch 22 as per SBA

TCs = floored down

TC resolution = ? deck

Halves -1 .5 1 1 1.5 1 .5 0 -.5 ?1 (adjusted per full deck)

Zen -1 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2 (adjusted per full deck)

1000 Million rounds for each one.

Software used: CVCX

 

Bet spread	K.B     Av.B    %W/L    $/100   SD/100	RoR	  N0	 DI	SCORE 

 

				HALVES					 

									 

PA Opt.(1-12)	740	33.69	1.13	38.00	638.55	13.5	26328	6.16	37.97 

PA Opt.(1-16)	837	33.96	1.30	44.00	666.02	13.5	22722	6.63	44.00 

 

				ZEN					 

									 

PA Opt.(1-12)	743	32.79	1.12	36.79	585.26	13.5	27215	6.06	36.74 

PA Opt.(1-16)	838	33.06	1.29	42.71	656.86	13.5	23417	6.53	42.70 

									 

 

Sincerely

Zenfighter

[Zenfighter]

Halves figures double-checked, already:

Cacarulo?s software: (half deck estimation with tags doubled)

 

1-12	$38.04		$37.97	(CVCX)	dif = $0.07 (due to the length of both sims) 

 

1-16	$43.96		$44.00  (CVCX)	dif = $0.04 (same as above) 

 

Noticeable discrepancies with Zen?s SCORES. Possibilities:

1) I?ve done something strange with the Zen?s settings.

2) He has done something strange with the Zen?s settings.

3) There is something strange with CVCX and the Zen count.

4) There is something strange with Cac?s one and/or SBA and the Zen count.

Food for thought.

Zenfighter