VerdugoJohn: Question on Penetration Scouting

[VerdugoJohn]

Last night I was reading Blackjack Essays (which I bought here) and came across an idea I had not considered...

Does penetration vary with crowd conditions in most casinos?

Table minimums surely do, just check out strip games on graveyard. When there are a lot of folks playing, the casinos raise the limits and thus get more money bet. But what about penetration? Do they also not go deeper then, on the theroy they can get in more hands dealt during peak hours, and win more?

Conversely, when the casino is uncrowded, table minimums come down, to induce the low-rollers onto the tables...but do the penetration levels also deteriorate, thus upping profits by getting at bigger edge?

Have any one here noticed that?

For various reasons, I have avoided peak hours, but perhaps I may alter strategy if the above is true. Thanks.

[Jackie Chiles]

VerdugoJohn:

Interesting. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe penetration is something that is dictated by management and the dealers are supposed to adhere to the directive. In practice "supposed" does not always mean "do." You have probably noticed that at some places penetration can vary meaningfully from dealer to dealer and even from shoe to shoe with the same dealer. I have always looked at this has a random phenomenom, something not due to the sheer number of customers on hand and impossible to predict i.e., you have to actually be there and observe because there is no tendency which you can rely upon. (Also, following a "good" dealer around like a lapdog is something I think is just too obvious to the bosses. Here's another advantage which team play can really exploit which a solo player should be very, very careful with.) But it would be interesting to see if anybody else has taken the time to analyze this and has come to a differing conclusion.

Jackie Chiles

[VerdugoJohn]

Jackie

You are right when you say I have noticed that penetration varies by dealer in many places. However, I never suspected the penetration policy was anything varied unless the player was suspect.

I appreciate your feedback, and I hope others weigh in on this...

(PS...like your performances in Seinfeld).

[bfbagain]

Short answer - NO!

Penetration is dictated by management policy.

Do they also not go deeper then, on the theroy they can get in more hands dealt during peak hours, and win more?

Please don't take offense.....but I am ROTFLMAO!

You are absolutely right, that deeper pen regardless of crowd conditions, would allow them to win more. The question then becomes, "why aren't they dealing deeper?"

Answer: Because they're NOT thinking. At least not intellectually. What they are thinking, through the eyes of the greediest people on earth, is that those damn card counters might win a few shekels. And they'll be damned to let that happen, so they say, "we'll show them pricks, we'll cut our nose off to spite our face just to make sure they don't win as much too!"

And you want to know what's scary? This is their mentality. Really!

This may sound cruel and cold and cynical, but hey, the truth is the truth.

cheers
bfb

[VerdugoJohn]

No problem, no offense taken...

I appreciate your response. And I am glad you got a laugh.

Perhaps I give credit to managements for more thoughtfulness and brains than most of my non-blackjack career indicates I should ( I am a finance guy). I must admit, most large companies have managements filled with semi-compentent, overly ambitious people, and it makes for an environment where workers with ability must cover up for poor leadership and then suffer abuse when the management incompetience cannot be overcome...
(up the revolution, workers of the world unite!!)

That said, if a casino management does dictate the amount of penetration, one must agree that it is possible (although not likely) that during busy times the bosses could say "deal them deeper now, because there are a lot more bad players here than good ones, and we will make more." Conversely, bosses would say deal "shallow on slow times, because during slow times are when counters are more likely to play, as they prefer heads-up games." These were the points that Malmuth was making in his essay.

Thinking like a businessman, the casino is adding more capacity during peak times by loosening up the game, and the marginal cost of the loosening is exceeded by the marginal gain. During a slow time, loosening the game would not result in any gain, as there is already excess capacity.

Your point, as I understand it, is that if casino's dealt deeper all the time, both busy and slow, they would win more all the time...that may be true (I sure hope it is), as certainly, a casino might develop more player traffic that way.

But putting aside all this theroy on casino managment, all I want to know, is it worth my while to troll the big casino's on busy nights with the hope of finding deeper penetration, and thus a more beatable game ;-) !

Thanks again.

[bfbagain]

[Don Schlesinger]

Once for reading Masom Malmuth, who is an excellent ... poker writer (!), and twice for daring to think that casinos are run by people with functioning brains.

Don

[Hollywood]

> Last night I was reading Blackjack Essays
> (which I bought here) and came across an
> idea I had not considered...

> Does penetration vary with crowd conditions
> in most casinos?

> Table minimums surely do, just check out
> strip games on graveyard. When there are a
> lot of folks playing, the casinos raise the
> limits and thus get more money bet. But what
> about penetration? Do they also not go
> deeper then, on the theroy they can get in
> more hands dealt during peak hours, and win
> more?

> Conversely, when the casino is uncrowded,
> table minimums come down, to induce the
> low-rollers onto the tables...but do the
> penetration levels also deteriorate, thus
> upping profits by getting at bigger edge?

> Have any one here noticed that?

> For various reasons, I have avoided peak
> hours, but perhaps I may alter strategy if
> the above is true. Thanks.

I don't think it's a secret, but I keep an entire log book on Pen.

I monitor names very carefully that give excellent, right down to unexceptable pen.

I have found that in most cases the dealers that give good and bad pen are quite consistant.

I have seen dealers that give excellent pen get clocked right in front of me. A pit boss would wisper in there ear and the next cut would be a little different.

But, I find pen the single most important thing in what we all do. So when i'm shopping for a table to play at, it's the only thing i'm really looking for.

Conditions in AC usually suck. But, I find with the Borgota cutting out a piece of all their hearts, the pen has become much much improved in many casino's recently.

I have not found it better or worse at peak or non-peak periods.

I even did a study several years ago to see if any etnic groups cut little or more then others. Or guys over girls or younger dealers as opposed to middle age and older dealers. You know what I came up with.

I came up with nothing. There was no differences amoungst any different groups or gender or ages. It was so random that I could not believe it.

The only thing I came away from it with, was the consistancy of specific dealers.

If you find one that gives good pen, as long as no one tightens them up. Which is always a posibility. They run the good pen consistantly.

Anyway, just my 2 cents.

Hollywood

[VerdugoJohn]

Thank you, greatly appreciated. I admire you drive to conduct the search you did, and your organization skills to keep a log book of it all...

I think I will try some of that type of same scounting next time I am in LV, and of course I will share it here...I typically go for only a few days for two or three times a year. But after all, it is really the only way I can repay...

Thanks again.