The Prince: Lost power due to camouflage

[The Prince]

In the table hopping section in BJ Attack, it is recommended not to jump your bets after a loss, and never to jump them more than a parlay after a win. How much power is lost with this method compared to ideal mathematical "perfect" play.
(I realize this will differ depending on the number of decks, rules, and betting style used.)

[Don Schlesinger]

> In the table hopping section in BJ Attack,
> it is recommended not to jump your bets
> after a loss, and never to jump them more
> than a parlay after a win. How much power is
> lost with this method compared to ideal
> mathematical "perfect" play.
> (I realize this will differ depending on the
> number of decks, rules, and betting style
> used.)

See pp. 107-109.

Don

[The Prince]

Someone feels stupid. Oh wait...yeah, it's me.

[Illusion]

On that topic, what do you(everyone on here) think about cover and bet spread when your at a casino for a weekend trip. A off the beaten road place that you more then likely wont be back at at any time soon or ever?

Myself in the past played at such a place with a 1-18 spread on 6D game with no cover at all and wonged in and out with no regaurd to what the pit though of my action.

Was this wise? I've neer been back there nor do I plan on it.

Illusion

[Don Schlesinger]

> On that topic, what do you(everyone on here)
> think about cover and bet spread when you're
> at a casino for a weekend trip. An off the
> beaten road place that you more than likely
> won't be back at at any time soon or ever?

Do they have surveillance? Can they take your picture? Can they send it to every casino in the world, if they choose to? Do you ask yourself these questions?

> In the past I played at such a place
> with a 1-18 spread on 6D game with no cover
> at all and wonged in and out with no regard
> to what the pit though of my action.

Always foolish.

> Was this wise?

No.

>I've neer been back there nor do I plan on it.

Good idea! Playing the way you describe will eventually get you thrown out of all the places you play in.

Don

[[email protected]]

Yeah your right, but how much attention would the red chip player be looking at for this kind of play?

I don't play like this normaly.

[98%]

The answers to your questions are very much dependent on the casino in question. In some cases, giving the casino too much respect is, in many ways, just as bad as not giving it enough. There are plenty of stores where I routinely employ a table min to 2 x table max spread (generally 1 to 2 x 100), and I've been getting away with it for years. On the other hand, there are some places where I won't even count cards for meaningful stakes without the "umbrella cover" of a special occasion bringing in a lot of huge action and conservative play on my part on top of that, because they're just too sharp. The moral of the story is: know your enemy. Just because a casino is out of the way doesn't mean it is staffed by people who are completely incompetent, and vice versa. If you're in no position to garner information about the game protection capabilities of a casino, perhaps it is wise to err on the side of caution, but learning about the inner workings of casinos is time well-spent, if you intend to play blackjack to make good money.

You also mentioned you have no intention of ever returning to this particular establishment. If you are 100% certain of that being the case, extra aggression is warranted. A barring doesn't hurt much if you weren't going to go back anyway.

[Don Schlesinger]

> You also mentioned you have no intention of
> ever returning to this particular
> establishment. If you are 100% certain of
> that being the case, extra aggression is
> warranted. A barring doesn't hurt much if
> you weren't going to go back anyway.

Now, you're not following your own advice about not knowing the enemy. Not going back to the casino is not the sole criterion; knowing whether the casino is likely to flyer you or pass around info is the key.

Suppose you decide to play MGM Grand with the thought that "You'll never go back there again." See the problem?

Don

[98%]

> Now, you're not following your own advice
> about not knowing the enemy. Not going back
> to the casino is not the sole criterion;
> knowing whether the casino is likely to
> flyer you or pass around info is the key.

It has been my experience that flyers are largely irrelevant. I would say I average 3 a year and, to date, they have cost me approximately $0.00 in long-term earnings. It is much easier for people to remember you from barring you than it is for them to pick you off based on a photo. Add to this that not every barring results in a flyer, even at a place like the MGM Grand, and this is why I believe extra aggression is warranted. Also, the lower the stakes at which you play are, the lower the likelihood of a flyer.

It has also been my experience that flyers have a geographic correlation with the heat they bring. For example, if you get flyered in downtown Las Vegas, avoid downtown Las Vegas for a few weeks. If you get flyered in Tunica, avoid Tunica for a few weeks, and so on. So again, the fallout from a flyer from the middle of nowhere is not likely to be bad. To my knowledge, there is but one casino which will actually send your picture to every casino in the world, and it isn't off the beaten path.

Now, if you are the type who gets rated and plays under the same name all over the place, then flyers could be more damaging, and you should go to greater lengths to avoid them. That said, who would get rated in a place off the beaten path where he's never going to return? If you insist on getting rated in the middle of nowhere, at least do it under a name which isn't in use anywhere else.

It's all a matter of expectation. What is the likelihood that your extra aggression will result in a flyer? What is the dollar amount that a flyer would cost you in the long run if it went out? What is the dollar amount that your extra aggression will net you in the short run? Run the numbers and make the optimal play. These are precisely the things I think about in casinos, and, coupled with my respect or lack of respect for their game protection capabilities, why I will run some places over with aggression but play conservatively in others. A player's game should be tailored to the establishments in which he plays. Playing exactly the same everywhere is a sure sign of a lazy player who is not interested in going through the effort of evaluating his enemies.

[Hollywood]

> The answers to your questions are very much
> dependent on the casino in question. In some
> cases, giving the casino too much respect
> is, in many ways, just as bad as not giving
> it enough. There are plenty of stores where
> I routinely employ a table min to 2 x table
> max spread (generally 1 to 2 x 100), and
> I've been getting away with it for years. On
> the other hand, there are some places where
> I won't even count cards for meaningful
> stakes without the "umbrella
> cover" of a special occasion bringing
> in a lot of huge action and conservative
> play on my part on top of that, because
> they're just too sharp. The moral of the
> story is: know your enemy. Just because a
> casino is out of the way doesn't mean it is
> staffed by people who are completely
> incompetent, and vice versa. If you're in no
> position to garner information about the
> game protection capabilities of a casino,
> perhaps it is wise to err on the side of
> caution, but learning about the inner
> workings of casinos is time well-spent, if
> you intend to play blackjack to make good
> money.

> You also mentioned you have no intention of
> ever returning to this particular
> establishment. If you are 100% certain of
> that being the case, extra aggression is
> warranted. A barring doesn't hurt much if
> you weren't going to go back anyway.

Hey 98% I had not seen you post in a while.

I missed you. Glad to see you in here.

Hollywood

[John Lewis]

"I would say I average 3 a year (flyers) and, to date, they have cost me approximately $0.00 in long-term earnings."

Your comments are interesting.

Question from a naif (sp?):

I assume the casinos are discrete in actions such as drafting their flyers. How do you personally know when you have been flyered?

thanks, JL

[98%]

> I assume the casinos are discrete in actions
> such as drafting their flyers. How do you
> personally know when you have been flyered?

It's dangerous to assume things about casinos and the people they have working for them. Much like there are the McDuffs of the world who are willing to answer questions from people, so too are there casino personnel who don't mind sharing a lot of the information to which they are privy. Or so I'm told...