I have a question. I have seen some conflicting information regarding the calculations of EV. I have been told that you use your intial bet (1 unit) X your Advantage X 100 = Hourly Win Rate.
I have also been told that you use your average bet (roughly half of your maximum bet X your advantage X 100 = Hourly win Rate...
Which one is correct?
> I have a question. I have seen some
> conflicting information regarding the
> calculations of EV. I have been told that
> you use your intial bet (1 unit) X your
> Advantage X 100 = Hourly Win Rate.
No, certainly wrong.
> I have also been told that you use your
> average bet (roughly half of your maximum
> bet X your advantage X 100 = Hourly win
> Rate...
Forget the "roughly half" part. Average bet can be anything, depending on bet spread and ramp. So, hourly win rate is:
average bet x average percentage advantage (which some people refer to as the e.v., rather than the dollar amount of win per hour).
> Which one is correct?
The second, with my caveats. Also, if you back-count, instead of play all, you won't be playing 100 hands per hour, so that will change, as well.
Don
... I sense that you don't have BJA3, because, if you did, you would certainly know from the Chapter 10 charts that the second approach is the correct one.
Don
Thanks Don,
I have been playing under your conclusion for quite a while, and then I read on another website which has a listing of blackjack calculators that it is your initial bet times your advantage times 100 hands played (or in your case observed). That didn't sound right an got me completely scared (thinking that my current average of 35/hr at house A(SD) vs 32/hr at house B (SD) and 23/hr at house C(DD) were due to S.D..... I was waiting for the Axe to fall so to speak:-)
As far as determining ones Avg. bet. It would seem to me that one can never truly know what there average bet is unless they were allowed to use a pen and paper. THat is to say you cant know for sure the average bet of a session, but obviously we can sim to find out an average bet for the long run... yada yada yada all that to say what is the best estimate of ones Average bet? Since I spread between 1 - 8 and 1 - 10 in DD and 1 - 4 and as much as 1 - 6 in SD... is there a truly good estimate of what an average bet will be?
And also those spreads aren't completely accurate either... When I play with my wife she simply copies my bets save spreading to 2 hands ... this is all complicated, perhaps we can go into more detail in the chat on the 19th... there are so many variables that I am getting confused. i do notice that the bankroll tends to grow faster and with less volatility when my wife plays with me copying my bets... but I am not sure if there is a math reason for this or just plain deviation.... sorry for the rambling, but if you could try to decipher what is above I would greatly appreciate it.
> ... I sense that you don't have BJA3,
> because, if you did, you would certainly
> know from the Chapter 10 charts that the
> second approach is the correct one.
I do have BJA3 i keep it in my car when I go to play so I can check things out between casinos. When it is not there it is always nearby, I contantly go over the SCORE charts and RoR charts.. The reason for my confusion was because of the website I stumbled upon that belongs to a BJ simulation software company whom is well respected in this community who said otherwise. see the link below and select the boxes that apply and the first paragraph will state the following:
"EV, or Expected Value, is the percentage of your initial bets (not counting double-downs and splits) that you will win. An EV of 1% indicates that you will win 1% of your initial bets in the long run if you play correctly."
(THat made me feel bad, kinda like God himself calling me a blasphemer for not reading the Bible)
> Thanks Don,
> I have been playing under your conclusion
> for quite a while, and then I read on
> another website which has a listing of
> blackjack calculators that it is your
> initial bet times your advantage times 100
> hands played (or in your case observed).
> That didn't sound right an got me completely
> scared (thinking that my current average of
> 35/hr at house A(SD) vs 32/hr at house B
> (SD) and 23/hr at house C(DD) were due to
> S.D..... I was waiting for the Axe to fall
> so to speak:-)
> As far as determining ones Avg. bet. It
> would seem to me that one can never truly
> know what there average bet is unless they
> were allowed to use a pen and paper. THat is
> to say you cant know for sure the average
> bet of a session, but obviously we can sim
> to find out an average bet for the long
> run... yada yada yada all that to say what
> is the best estimate of ones Average bet?
> Since I spread between 1 - 8 and 1 - 10 in
> DD and 1 - 4 and as much as 1 - 6 in SD...
> is there a truly good estimate of what an
> average bet will be?
> And also those spreads aren't completely
> accurate either... When I play with my wife
> she simply copies my bets save spreading to
> 2 hands ... this is all complicated, perhaps
> we can go into more detail in the chat on
> the 19th... there are so many variables that
> I am getting confused. i do notice that the
> bankroll tends to grow faster and with less
> volatility when my wife plays with me
> copying my bets... but I am not sure if
> there is a math reason for this or just
> plain deviation.... sorry for the rambling,
> but if you could try to decipher what is
> above I would greatly appreciate it.
Dear Laughlin:
I want to know your secret. Because everytime my wife plays with me, My bankroll goes DOWN.
Hollywood
> "EV, or Expected Value, is the
> percentage of your initial bets (not
> counting double-downs and splits) that you
> will win. An EV of 1% indicates that you
> will win 1% of your initial bets in the
> long run if you play correctly."
This is to make a separate point. They're talking about the fact that the denominator, for arriving at the percentage for e.v. must, by convention, be predicated upon just the original bet that you put on the table (no matter what its size) and not any doubled or split extra action. If you flat bet, then their definition would be correct. If you spread, you need your average bet times your average advantage. Alternatively, you can multiply, line by line, by true count, each bet size by each advantage and sum the products to get the e.v.
> (THat made me feel bad, kinda like God
> himself calling me a blasphemer for not
> reading the Bible)
LOL!! :-) Sorry. You're back in the flock! :-)
Don
> Thanks Don,
> I have been playing under your conclusion
> for quite a while, and then I read on
> another website which has a listing of
> blackjack calculators that it is your
> initial bet times your advantage times 100
> hands played (or in your case observed).
> That didn't sound right an got me completely
> scared (thinking that my current average of
> 35/hr at house A(SD) vs 32/hr at house B
> (SD) and 23/hr at house C(DD) were due to
> S.D..... I was waiting for the Axe to fall
> so to speak:-)
Not to worry. You're OK.
> As far as determining one's Avg. bet. It
> would seem to me that one can never truly
> know what there average bet is unless they
> were allowed to use a pen and paper.
Right. Or a simulator.
> THat is
> to say you cant know for sure the average
> bet of a session, but obviously we can sim
> to find out an average bet for the long
> run... yada yada yada all that to say what
> is the best estimate of ones Average bet?
> Since I spread between 1 - 8 and 1 - 10 in
> DD and 1 - 4 and as much as 1 - 6 in SD...
> is there a truly good estimate of what an
> average bet will be?
Use the Chapter 10 charts and see if you can arrive at the average bet from the line-by-line TCs and their frequencies. Above, I forgot to tell you to multiply by frequency, for the e.v. In any case, you don't need that here. Just multiply bet size, by frequency, line by line, and sum the products. Voila! That's your average bet.
Write back if you have trouble doing it.
Don
> Dear Laughlin:
> I want to know your secret. Because
> everytime my wife plays with me, My bankroll
> goes DOWN.
Hollywood,
Sorry, I thought I replied to this earlier, but After playing from 11PM - 6:30 AM at a few different stores last night, I must have clicked preview instead of post. Here is a short synopsis of how and why I can make more.
My wife has 2 choices she can play with me by betting the way that I bet (matching my bet but only playing one hand). Or she may get a 20 dollar bill and play the dollar table with all the ploppies:-) She has begun to choose to play with me and there is a huge advantage to this besides cover.
First let me show one of the games I play in here in Laughlin
SD D1011 (ouch) 39/52 (excellent pen sometimes deeper) NDAS
Spread Alone 1 - 8 (2 hands of 4) with a 2 unit cover bet off the shuffle.
Spread with wife 2(since there are a min of 2 hands being played at all times) - 16. When playing with the wife the cover allows me to play 2 hands of 5 units while she plays 1 hand at 6.
This is the same 1 - 8 spread math wise BUT I have 2 times the units and therefore 2 times the money on the table BUT I have the Same risk as I did when I had half the money on the table playing alone... The SCOREs are the same as they are both the same spreads (251.21) but I should make 2 times the money by getting more units on the table. When I play alone I *should* make 38.40 per hour (for some reason it has been about 5 bucks an hour lower) but when I play with her for the same RoR I should make 76.80/hr.
> Not to worry. You're OK.
> Right. Or a simulator.
> Use the Chapter 10 charts and see if you can
> arrive at the average bet from the
> line-by-line TCs and their frequencies.
> Above, I forgot to tell you to multiply by
> frequency, for the e.v. In any case, you
> don't need that here. Just multiply bet
> size, by frequency, line by line, and sum
> the products. Voila! That's your average
> bet.
> Write back if you have trouble doing it.
OK I came to an avg bet of 26.765 I went ahead and figured out EV to be 54.18/hr... I assumed it would be a min of 68.53 based on the SCORE of a 1 - 8 spread with deep pen with those rules in SD...
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