Laughlin Marauder: Huge Ouch

[Laughlin Marauder]

Got absolutely Destroyed the last 2 days in 5.5 hours of play. 30% of my BR gone. Total loss 240 units of my 800 unit bankroll gone in 1 hour playing heads up DD... amazing 550 hands....Tonight I won 2 hands when the count was +2 or higher. when the count was +4 or higher I lost all of them... and this occured about 15 times at a price of 10 units each... (2 hands of 5)... dealer would get 20 to my 19's or worse or if I was lucky we would push.

I walked out in a daze, slightly embarassed, slightly shamed, and contemplating if this is such a good idea afterall. I know that I am playing correctly, betting properly, and deviating from BS according to the Ill 18. But last night was a killer.

I realize this game will test your soul... but last nights 60 unit loss (topped off by 25 consecutive losing hands) and tonights 180 unit loss seems less like a test of the sould and more like the destruction of it.

It seems the last 4 weeks have been leading to something. First getting burned out and not playing much, and now getting killed at the tables the last 2 nights in a row...

I have done the math on the last 2 nights play... in 5.5 hours my ev is right around 11 units, 3S.D. is 77 units so probability speaking I shouldn't have lost more than 66 units nor won more than 88.

I just am sitting here shaking my head wondering how it happened and why I let it. I guess I relied on the math a little too much... but I know this with this loss my RoR has tripled from 1.15% to a little over 4.39%...

What do you do when this happens... How do you go back? I honestly dont want to see the inside of a Casino at this point. At this point curling up with my bottle of Glenfiddich seems like the best course of action.

[bfbagain]

I just am sitting here shaking my head wondering how it happened and why I let it. I guess I relied on the math a little too much... my RoR has tripled from 1.15% to a little over 4.39%...

If the game is good, then you have no choice other than to let it happen, it being the result.

And relying on the math a little too much is exactly the right thing to do, as it's the only thing you can do. Otherwise, you won't be playing the game with an advantage.

The reality is that this can and will happen, much more often than you'll like or want. Why? Because it's the nature of the game. There is no guarantee that you will have "predictable" results in a short term period of time. What you will have is reasonably predictable results over a longer period of time (N0).

That is what playing blackjack is. I have had your results many times, where people may have watched me and asked why am I allowing myself to be "killed", why not go to another table, take a break, or any other sort of advice by people who were feeling my pain.

Did I leave? No. My reasons, when leaving, were within the boundries of my "game plan", i.e., nearly out money, or maybe near the CTR limits (if playing anonymously), or time restaints (session time limit), heat, or any other of the given restrictions that advantage players have as part of their game plan. NOT, because of anything related to voodoo, or flow, or hot dealers, etc.

IF THE GAME IS GOOD, YOU STAY, and feel the pain. If not, you leave.

Keep your chin up, and ride through it.

No one, as far as I know, has ever said (if they're a true AP) that this will be easy.

It'll come back to you, believe me.

cheers
bfb

[Laughlin Marauder]

I dont disagree with you that the math works in the long run. last night was just a huge slug in the face. The last run through the double deck I played the count kept climbing forever... Basically in the last 6 hands alone I lost 60 units.... the dealer dealt about 80% of the cards and the count was +23 when she shuffled in those last 6 hands neither of us had pat hands... in fact the last hand I had 6-9 and dealer had 6 up... mind you the count is a bazillion plus as I noted before... she flips over an 8 for 14 and then draws a 6 for 20....

I guess I need help to overcome the intense fear of all of this. I used to play baseball at a very high level. I was a good pitcher and then one day when I was playing at Diablo Stadium in Tempe I blew out my shoulder (torn labrum, and rotator cuff)... anyway it feels like I just got rocked by the other team. I had many outings where myself, and my catcher felt I threw very very well but the other team was still crushing me... Its like Shell shock... this feels the same way like I just am not catching the breaks. And just like I was a little nervous about taking the mound again after a night like that, I am nervous about sitting at the tables again after a night like last night...

We need a BlackJack AP psychologist to help us in situations like these... anyone know of any in Nevada?

[bfbagain]

1) check your counting skills
2) check your indice skills
3) use cvbj to inspect your "real world like casino" skills through cvbj play.

If all's well....

Take a 24 hr break, read a book, see a movie, and the next day repeat points, 1,2, & 3.

If everything is still fine, get back on the saddle. It's a new day.

Of course, all of this is moot if you're playing an inferior game. Maybe a drive to Vegas and specifically to Suncoast or Green Vally Ranch for their moderate stake DD games may be the ticket.

And one more point....

Get over it.

have a great day
bfb
Oh, I forgot....No charge.

[disadvantageplayer]

laughlin,
you've got to take a break. playing 350 hrs in 3 months is gonna burn anyone out. god forbid during your burn out you actually have a standard deviation dictated losing streak to really break your spirit! i suggest taking a few months searching for the holy grails of hole-carding, shuffle tracking, and other forms a.p. and come back to the table with renewed enthusiasm. maybe then a losing streak will just be a losing streak and not a spirit-breaker! good luck.

> Got absolutely Destroyed the last 2 days in
> 5.5 hours of play. 30% of my BR gone. Total
> loss 240 units of my 800 unit bankroll gone
> in 1 hour playing heads up DD... amazing 550
> hands

"After playing Blackjack for approximately 350 hours the past 3 months (only about 50 for the last month) I am beginning to get burnt out and haven't really played in about a week and a half. Does anyone have any tips on how to get re interested? I read BJA3 alot and it sparks my intellectual interest but isn't drawing my excitement to the tables."

[Sun Runner]

> Basically in the last 6 hands
> alone I lost 60 units.... the dealer dealt
> about 80% of the cards and the count was +23

Is this that same DD game where 'they' want you to win? A +23 count @ 80% pen. Are you telling me that (depending on how you TC) approx 15 of the 20 cards or so she was holding were money cards at the shuffle up?

Do they always deal 80% routinely?

Were they always ending on high counts?

Maybe they thought it was just time to square the books.

I'm not saying you got hosed, I'm just saying it's worth looking at.

Either way -disadvantage player said it again -maybe it is time to learn some other techniques and spread yourself around.

[ghost]

> laughlin,
> you've got to take a break. playing 350 hrs
> in 3 months is gonna burn anyone out. god
> forbid during your burn out you actually
> have a standard deviation dictated losing
> streak to really break your spirit! i
> suggest taking a few months searching for
> the holy grails of hole-carding, shuffle
> tracking, and other forms a.p. and come back
> to the table with renewed enthusiasm. maybe
> then a losing streak will just be a losing
> streak and not a spirit-breaker! good luck.

> "After playing Blackjack for
> approximately 350 hours the past 3 months
> (only about 50 for the last month) I am
> beginning to get burnt out and haven't
> really played in about a week and a half.
> Does anyone have any tips on how to get re
> interested? I read BJA3 alot and it sparks
> my intellectual interest but isn't drawing
> my excitement to the tables."

i believe like sunrunner, maybe you got hosed or ran into a mechanic. You got baited with pen and he holds the 10. I put nothing past these greed monsters......

[98%]

I would advise against taking up something like shuffle tracking if you are struggling with reconciling your losses in a counting game. That is a road to certain self-destruction. You want to be 100% confident in your counting ability before you try to cross that bridge. As was previously advised, check and double-check your skills, go see a movie and then get right back out and act like nothing happened. If you are selecting good games, and it sounds like you are if you're playing a DD game with 80% penetration, you will get the money. I doubt you were cheated, you were just unlucky. Still, if you have even the slightest suspicion that you were cheated, it is best to play in another place with an equally good or even superior game, otherwise you're liable to drive yourself crazy wondering, and you may even get gun-shy when the count starts soaring again. In my career I have seen some streaks of unbelievable magnitude but, in the end, all the good players have gotten the money. Shit happens, if you can't take the swings, you need to find another way to spend your time.

> laughlin,
> you've got to take a break. playing 350 hrs
> in 3 months is gonna burn anyone out. god
> forbid during your burn out you actually
> have a standard deviation dictated losing
> streak to really break your spirit! i
> suggest taking a few months searching for
> the holy grails of hole-carding, shuffle
> tracking, and other forms a.p. and come back
> to the table with renewed enthusiasm. maybe
> then a losing streak will just be a losing
> streak and not a spirit-breaker! good luck.

[Laughlin Marauder]

> Do they always deal 80% routinely?

No usually I get down to where there are 10 - 15 cards left. The reason the dealer shuffled at this point and the only reason was for the simple fact that I was out of money!:-)

> Were they always ending on high counts?

No in the previous runs I would get whacked on the higher counts IE: me 19 dealer 20 me 18 dealer 20. Me 11 double down get an A dealer 20. Me 20 dealer Natural... things like that.

> Maybe they thought it was just time to
> square the books.

The particular dealer who crushed me in the final climbing count can barely keep the cards on the table. In fact there is only 1 dealer there who would have the skills to cheat me and he is a pit boss. Besides I rarely give them my rate card, and my name is so common as to make it difficult to just "look up".. there are probably 1000+ people with my name in their computer. In fact one of the pit bosses believed as of 3 days ago that I was losing money (its always a good idea to hide chips if you can).

> I'm not saying you got hosed, I'm just
> saying it's worth looking at.

If this were at the place down the road notorious for cheating (pref shuff, sneaking 10's out of their 6 deck or blatantly stackign the 6 deck game) I would agree. At this Casino I would doubt it.

> Either way -disadvantage player said it
> again -maybe it is time to learn some other
> techniques and spread yourself around.

I haven't studied up much on shuffle tracking other than the basic mathematics behind it. While the upside EV is very high it seems to be very volatile and incredibly Risky financially.

Believe it or not, I will probably go back and try to get some (obviously little to no chance of getting it all) of it back tonight. Only this time I wont let them take more than 40 units from me.

[Laughlin Marauder]

> I would advise against taking up something
> like shuffle tracking if you are struggling
> with reconciling your losses in a counting
> game. That is a road to certain
> self-destruction.

I agree Shuffle Tracking is to volatile and risky for me at a (now) 560 unit bankroll... even at 800 I like counting better... maybe if there were an extra 0 I would be willing to experiment.

You want to be 100%
> confident in your counting ability before
> you try to cross that bridge.

My counting ability and confidence in my ability to track a game are imho unquestionable. I practice for 2 hours a day just continously running through a deck 1, 2, and 4 cards at a time.... I believe my last error was 2 or 3 weeks ago where I guessed a 7, 8, or 9 and it ended up being a 10. As far as my True counting I simply count by half decks remaining... this makes life simpler.. ie a starting DD game is 4/2 after 1/2 of 1 deck dealt 3/2 and if the count is +4 thats 4(2/3)= 2.666... My skills are not what I am worried about...

If you are selecting good games,
> and it sounds like you are if you're playing
> a DD game with 80% penetration, you will get
> the money.

Exactly. The game could be better if they added S17 RSpA and DAS... but the typical penetration in my opinion makes up for the inferior rule subset. I do know it will take longer to get it back than it took to lose it...

I doubt you were cheated, you
> were just unlucky. Still, if you have even
> the slightest suspicion that you were
> cheated, it is best to play in another place
> with an equally good or even superior game,
> otherwise you're liable to drive yourself
> crazy wondering, and you may even get
> gun-shy when the count starts soaring again.

Although I don't believe in luck, I also don't believe i was cheated... I have been cheated 1 time in my life at the Riverside when the jerks were stripping 2 J's out of a deck in a SD game.

As far as being gun shy... I will more likely be nervous and a little fearful but I will still push the bets out, there is no other way to win.

> In my career I have seen some streaks of
> unbelievable magnitude but, in the end, all
> the good players have gotten the money. Shit
> happens, if you can't take the swings, you
> need to find another way to spend your time.

This is the first dramatic swing I have experienced... I have experienced 40 unit a night losses for a week before, but I have never in 1 night in 1.5 hours lost 180 units.

I appreciate all the support. It really helps (as does a good 12 yr old single malt from the highlands).

I guess i will try to trick my brain into believing it cant happen 2 nights in a row, although mathematically the odds of it happening are exactly the same as they were last night about 1 in 1000.

[Sun Runner]

> I agree Shuffle Tracking is to volatile and
> risky for me at a (now) 560 unit bankroll...

That is not what he said. He said you should not consider it if you are not sure of your counting skills and if you are not able to psycho stand the swings. You seem to be very sure that they are -and that you can.

> Although I don't believe in luck,

Call it what you want .. it's out there. I won't bore everyone again with my belief but the math dosen't guarantee anyone a winner. Sure the odds are WAY on our side; but guarantee? No. In fact it guarantees that a very very few will infact lose long term.

> I also don't believe i was cheated

You are probably right.

> As far as being gun shy... I will more
> likely be nervous and a little fearful but I
> will still push the bets out, there is no
> other way to win.

You are not alone in that feeling; and you are right. As you stated, not betting properly when called for will beat you. If you are scrimping on the big bets, not doubling and splitting in the high counts when called for, you are on the slow road to the poor house.

> I guess i will try to trick my brain into
> believing it cant happen 2 nights in a row,

It shouldn't; but what if it does!?

Prematurely quitting while up has no basis in the math. It's all one long run just arbitrarily segmented by our human limitations (time, sleep, hunger, work, family, etc).

But in your case, I might consider arbitrarily quitting a time or two while ahead just to give your brain that positive re-enforcement.

Good luck.

[Laughlin Marauder]

> Call it what you want .. it's out there. I
> won't bore everyone again with my belief but
> the math dosen't guarantee anyone a winner.
> Sure the odds are WAY on our side; but
> guarantee? No. In fact it guarantees that a
> very very few will infact lose long term.

i actually disagree with this statement, and although I know the math in the lab states this, it does so in a vaccuum. It assumes that once reaching ruin that there will be no more added money.... for example Company A is on the path for Bankruptcy... A computer calculates the end of the corporation to be on X date... what a computer model cannot take into account is what happens after the reorganization. Just like a computer or stochastic calculus cannot properly achieve results for what happens past 0. Does the player add more to his bankroll.. did he invest his bankroll in such a way that it was growing through outside means? I believe that in the real world of blackjack a full time player who plays say 120,000 hands a year for 30 years will probably make money on his "retirement day". either by setting a goal for himself near that day. Or if he has ruined, by reinvesting in himself and continuing on.

> Prematurely quitting while up has no basis
> in the math. It's all one long run just
> arbitrarily segmented by our human
> limitations (time, sleep, hunger, work,
> family, etc).

> But in your case, I might consider
> arbitrarily quitting a time or two while
> ahead just to give your brain that positive
> re-enforcement.

I usually do leave if I have either attained an 80 unit win or i am up 20 units after 4 hours. but sometimes it takes 8 hours to get those 20 units out.

[Ouchez]

> Got absolutely Destroyed the last 2 days in
> 5.5 hours of play. 30% of my BR gone. Total
> loss 240 units of my 800 unit bankroll gone
> in 1 hour playing heads up DD... amazing 550
> hands....Tonight I won 2 hands when the
> count was +2 or higher. when the count was
> +4 or higher I lost all of them... and this
> occured about 15 times at a price of 10
> units each... (2 hands of 5)... dealer would
> get 20 to my 19's or worse or if I was lucky
> we would push.

> I walked out in a daze, slightly embarassed,
> slightly shamed, and contemplating if this
> is such a good idea afterall. I know that I
> am playing correctly, betting properly, and
> deviating from BS according to the Ill 18.
> But last night was a killer.

> I realize this game will test your soul...
> but last nights 60 unit loss (topped off by
> 25 consecutive losing hands) and tonights
> 180 unit loss seems less like a test of the
> sould and more like the destruction of it.

> It seems the last 4 weeks have been leading
> to something. First getting burned out and
> not playing much, and now getting killed at
> the tables the last 2 nights in a row...

> I have done the math on the last 2 nights
> play... in 5.5 hours my ev is right around
> 11 units, 3S.D. is 77 units so probability
> speaking I shouldn't have lost more than 66
> units nor won more than 88.

> I just am sitting here shaking my head
> wondering how it happened and why I let it.
> I guess I relied on the math a little too
> much... but I know this with this loss my
> RoR has tripled from 1.15% to a little over
> 4.39%...

> What do you do when this happens... How do
> you go back? I honestly dont want to see the
> inside of a Casino at this point. At this
> point curling up with my bottle of
> Glenfiddich seems like the best course of
> action.

I play ONLY DD and have been on the verge of what you have experienced. DD is a different game and you MUST think outside the box, do you understand? I know perfectly well the feelings you are having but you must approach the game in a military fashion, think about it. Again, think outside the box. Do you shuffle trak? Think about the damn shuffle, and I don't care if it is a machine or a hand shuffle of any complexity. You must be accurate in the counting and TC conversions, are you? You can be and still be killed.

Take a break from the game, sounds like it would be good for you, at this point. You do not have to sit there and take a beating, go eat, take a walk, anything, you can always play later.I rarely lose because of my approach to the DD game, and I always do follow the math. One hint I will give you is to consider moving up sooner with the larger bets and go from one to 2 hands fiercely.

I do many things I will not write about, like catching sloppy dealers, many out there, and many other things.

Again you must think outside the box in the DD game.

I do feel badly for you.

Regards,
Ouchez.