negative flux or short deck?? whats your expert opinion?? Recently i visited a indian casino in MI
and feel i played and observed play for many hours.On many occasions the rc was high and the big ones never came, I feel the decks at many tables were short 10 cards. all players i oberved were getting beat and at a faster pace. IN REALALITY what is going on, are we likely to run in to this at indian casinos and regulated ones..
Well, many hours doesn't really amount to much evidence. Most of us have had bad weeks or months. Or even a bad year. But, I will say that I am amused at people that say online casinos are too risky as they are not regulated, but will play Indian casinos as though they were any more regulated
Just my thought on the mattter.
I have had only positive experiences at all the Native American casinos I've played. Besides the fact that I find their atmosphere more enjoyable and their games generally stronger, I would have no qualms whatsoever playing high stakes at their games versus state regulated casinos. Anything is possible, but I highly doubt any established Indian casino would resort to shorting the shoe.
I wouldn't make a judgement based on what happened when the RC was high. But I would make a judgement on what the TC tended to be at the end of the dealt deck. If that ran consistenly higher than expected (average=0) over a few hours I would indeed be concerned about 10-shorted decks.
It's fairly widely acknowledged that this indeed may be more likely to occur in more loosely regulated environments, which is said to often be the case with Indian casinos.
Hi-lo RC probabilities at the 234 card level (4.5/6)
RC Prob. of occurrence Odds
10 0.019637676 1 in 51
11 0.015569177 1 in 64
12 0.012073658 1 in 83
13 0.009158191 1 in 109
14 0.006794823 1 in 147
15 0.004931104 1 in 203
16 0.003500321 1 in 286
17 0.002430351 1 in 411
18 0.001650547 1 in 606
19 0.001096438 1 in 912
20 0.000712423 1 in 1404
From the above figures it?s almost intuitively, that the real concern tends to appear,
when dealing with consecutive extreme RC?s while watching the appearance of the unavoidable cut card.
Example: You have entered a dubious casino and have gotten twice in a row a running count of +15, in your fist two games, at the end of the shoe. What are your random chances for that?
Answer: 0.004931104^2 = 0.000024316 or 1 in 41126 odds.
You have two options here, IMHO
a) Leave the establishment immediately, and tell us please. There is an inherent morbidity in all of us! :-)
b) Resume your play, just pure bad luck. I know these guys, they are honest.
Better safe than sorry, isn?t a bad policy at all, believe me.
Hope this helps you somehow.
Sincerely
Z
thanks so much for the insight
Let me recommend you also Dr. Thorp?s book The Mathematics of Gambling.
Missing cards: The Short Shoe, in chapter 2, is really an eye-opener.
You can download it for free at bjmath.com, in the Feature articles section.
Enjoy!
Z
Zenfighter's approach to this problem is a valid and worthwhile one.
I'd like to present a complimentary approach.
The chance of a positive deck vs. a negative deck at end of deal is 1/2.
Given an initial positive deck, the chance of 5 additional consecutive positive decks without the appearance of a negative deck is 1/32. This is beyond the threshold of "statistical significance" (1/20.) I would propose this point as the point of arousal.
Please note that neutral decks (end of deal count = 0) in the sequence should be disregarded.
The chance of 10 consecutive positive decks without a negative deck is < 1/500 (1/512.) The chance of 11 is < 1/1000 (1/1024.)
This approach should be valid with any number of decks and any degree of penetration.
I was short-shoed on a cruise ship about 15 years ago. Have not knowingly been shorted at an Indian casino, but have only played the major ones.
However, in any unregulated environment caveat emptor is the operative paradigm.
Regards,
Ian
Lovely to see you here, Ian. Please do drop by more often!
Regards,
Don
Thanks Don. Will do so whenever I can.
Congrads on newest version of Blackjack Attack. Eager to read it when its out.
Regards,
Ian
> Thanks Don. Will do so whenever I can.
> Congrads on newest version of Blackjack
> Attack. Eager to read it when its out.
Me too! :-) It will be my pleasure to send you a copy of the hardcover edition as soon as it's off the presses. Not sure I have a current address for you, so when the time comes, please make sure that Viktor Nacht, at RGE, knows where to reach you.
Don
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