> I was getting a figure 28.15%, so the house
> still has a tiny edge, but I am not sure how
> my software treats hands when dealer does
> not need to complete his hand (i.e. when all
> players busts or got BJs). Obviously, with
> this bet out dealer needs to complete every
> hand. It seems to me that SBA doesn't have a
> function for dealer bust probability
> depending on count, but I will check more
> carefully.
I did a little programming and found a solution which is in agreement with Zenfighter's answer:
Hi-Lo is not suited for this bet as you will see in the following sim:
TC Bust%
--------------
10 27.076%
9 27.277%
8 27.521%
7 27.671%
6 27.799%
5 27.939%
4 28.037%
3 28.107%
2 28.161%
1 28.203%
0 28.227%
-1 28.243%
-2 28.255% <== Max
-3 28.255%
-4 28.244%
-5 28.204%
-6 28.145%
-7 28.084%
-8 28.048%
-9 27.911%
-10 27.753%
Overall: 28.189%
As you can see the point where the dealer busts the most is at -2 (floored). This is not enough to overcome 1/3.5=0.2857.
Now, if you use a Ten Count (1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -2) in RC mode starting at -24 (6 decks) you'll get the following distribution:
RC Bust%
--------------
14 29.101%
13 29.052%
12 29.030%
11 28.979%
10 28.996%
9 28.991%
8 28.913%
7 28.907%
6 28.860%
5 28.838%
4 28.817%
3 28.761%
2 28.722%
1 28.685%
0 28.635%
-1 28.606% <== Index
-2 28.547%
-3 28.500%
-4 28.480%
-5 28.433%
-6 28.395%
-7 28.372%
-8 28.308%
-9 28.277%
-10 28.254%
-11 28.205%
-12 28.181%
-13 28.158%
-14 28.125%
-15 28.092%
-16 28.085%
-17 28.060%
-18 28.055%
-19 28.026%
-20 28.014%
-21 27.990%
-22 27.992%
-23 27.963%
Overall: 28.192%
So, if you bet at -1 or more you will get an advantage.
Hope this helps.
Sincerely,
Cacarulo
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