At some internet casinos they dont include baccarat in the no play games for wagering reqs.
So if i bet on both player and banker at the same time how much percent would i be losing.
The wiz say the edge on each is 1.06 and 1.24 respectively so does this mean i will lose at a rate of 2.3% ?
No, your loss is much lower - somewhere in the neighborhood of half the vig. But, that is not why Baccarat is barred from online casino bonus play. The point is - your variance is tiny if you bet against yourself. Same with betting rouge et noir in Roulette. Casinos, online or not, make money from bonuses based upon high variance as well as stupid play. If there is no variance, and you play correctly, you cannot lose.
P.S., if you do find a casino that allows Roulette play in bonus play; I?d be hesitant about playing there. First, they could be new and not trustworthy. Second, nearly all I?Net casino agreements say bonuses will not be awarded to anyone playing purely for bonuses. If you are betting against yourself, that?s the clearest sign you could present.
P.S.S. There is a very old movie that shows a would-be journalist in old Vegas playing Roulette against herself. Can?t remember the name ? and the movie was not memorable.
Oh, and sorry about the message title 'Sting of the hedgehogs.' I?m not implying that you are a hog for hedging (although it?s a perfectly legitimate method of gaining an advantage.) Just a silly pun. The rock-star Sting has applied to keep hedgehogs on his estate to protect them. Porcupines are called hedgehogs in the UK because they like to hide in hedgerows.
So, if there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now,
It's just a spring clean for the May queen. (apologies to Jimmy Page and Robert Plant.)
Well at this online casino i hedged last month and got paid no problem.
But yes you are right it is a bit dodgy and if i get barred from this one i could get barred from the rest of the chain.
So the risk is not worth it.I was just experimenting.
Anyway if i just play normal BJ i will make more in the long run.
I've never been accused of bonus hustling - which would seem to indicate that I have been too conservative.
Nice to see Paddy taking advantage of the internet. Build that bankroll the best way you can.
The discussion of baccarat odds intrigues me. Some times I play baccarat to create cover and even thought I am ahead lifetime in this coin toss, I get the cold sweats when I gamble. It is not a good feeling, although I do find it amusing that baccarat players spend so much time analyzing results that are completely random. Of course in live baccarat there is no possibility of actually betting against yourself, unless you had a partner at the table who would take contrarian positions to your own.
Is there any strategy that you might be aware of to limit your exposure to guessing wrong too many times at this game? I know that Paddy is pals with John May, and that Norm is a monster with mathematical analysis so I thought maybe I could intrude on this thread and get some comments. I see books on bac and soon after flipping through the first few pages I put them down in disgust. Counting cards seems like a pointless pursuit in bac, considering the propensity for hands to get played out until they have reached some 6,7, or higher total depending on the opposition's draw. The fact that baccarat players are treated like rock royalty instead of rat's ass blackjack pond scum is also a factor in my curiosity.
Is there any plan that can limit variance to the extent that one could play a game comparable to basic strategy flat-betting blackjack? I don't plan to chase a negative EV game, but it would be a nice break from my usual 'criminal activity' if I indeed had a way to play it well.
All comments are welcome, including the anticipated response to visit a local chapter of GA immediately. There is only so much cover you can create during blackjack play without giving away your edge, and casinos continually are responding to skilled play by ruining games or increasing heat. It helps to be profiled as just another gambler, although that is the last thing I want to be doing as I play extended hours for comps and cover.
scobee
Shimmy is the old American slang for Baccarat ? short for Chemin-de-fer.
The variance at Baccarat is about as low as you?re going to find in a casino. Probably Pai Gow Poker is lower as low variance is the purpose of PGP. The problem I have with Baccarat is the mind-numbing boredom. You have no choices to make other than playing banker or player. I get a kick out of the fact that James Bond is supposed to be a great bacca player. As if there is such a thing. There are some comments in Theory of Blackjack on the game ? but I seem to remember they are based on six card subsets at the end of the shoe and really aren?t useful. And, the only working strategies are based on an old tie bet that no longer exists. As for books on the subject, if you save the money from buying the book and use it to tip the cocktail waitress ? you have a better chance of sleeping with her than of gaining an advantage by reading the book.
But, I will relate a story. (I may have told this before.) Long ago, a Gin-buddy of mine was in Vegas losing his shirt, pants and most everything else. Tapped out, he went to a friend a borrowed $4,000. He took the 4, went straight to the Bacca table at CP and put it down on one bet. Won the bet. He let it ride. Won again. He said ?let it ride? and was told it was over the limit. He sat his GF down and made two $8K bets. Won. Said let it ride and again was told ?over the limit.? He grabbed two complete strangers, asked them to sit and made four $8K bets. Won. He picked up the chips and said to his GF ?let?s fly San Francisco and get dinner.?
True story. Of course lifetime he was such a mass loser his psychiatrist said he lost purposely.
Great story, Norm. I had never heard it before and it bears telling again and again. I also enjoyed your historical discussion and the 'need to lose' analysis. Thanks for taking the time to enlighten me. Your friend, even though playing a negative EV game, has the soul of an advantage player. I loved the part where he enlisted strangers to help him get around the table maximums.
While I was grinding away at a multi-deck game yesterday, I noticed that there was a lot of excitement at a nearby 'chemin de fer' table. It had all eight positions occupied by Asians who were chattering away incessantly, and the roars heard were similar to a craps table that was dumping, except in a different language. I looked up at the scoreboard, and the banker was on a streak of twelve consecutive wins. I left my 75% shoe game to visit, and backbet one gentlemen's hand while the streak eventually went to eighteen. Apparently they had to make two fills while it was in effect, and I made up for some blackjack losses while watching, amazed at the 'low variance' before me.
I wish I had read your message before.... I could have followed your advice about the cocktail waitress. Actually I have not invested the first centime in bac books. I agree that it is mind numbing to play, but some times that is just what the doctor ordered. As to Pai Gow, the number of ties and the slow play give it the distinction of offering the least amount of action you can find in a casino game, so I have taken up the mantle of suggesting to game supervisors around here that they would be far better off taking them out and replacing them with more blackjack tables. My favorite pit now has six Pai Gow, six Baccarat, and only seven blackjack tables.
I figured there was no way to gain an advantage from Bac. I have seen nerdy types sit there and play limited numbers of hands betting mostly on banker with piles of chips in front of them, but other than using it as a heat diffuser, it has little attraction to engage my attention. Even when the player gets to draw the cards instead of the dealer, the rules are such that you have no options for play other than choose 'heads' or 'tails.' The fact that it attracts the huge action it does only proves that in the mind of the gambler, the less skill required to play, the better.
I dont get how the loss is lower.This is how i see it.Say you bet 100 on bamker and 100 on player.
If either wins you win 95 on one bet because of the commission and lose 100 on the other,so -5 on 200 wagered.So losing at a rate of 2.50%.I think a tie happens once every 10 times so the you lose at a rate of 2.25%.
Although i must be wrong some where as the wiz says the edge on banker is 1.06 and player 1.24.
How is this edge arrived at?
> No, your loss is much lower - somewhere in
> the neighborhood of half the vig. But, that
> is not why Baccarat is barred from online
> casino bonus play. The point is - your
> variance is tiny if you bet against
> yourself. Same with betting rouge et noir in
> Roulette. Casinos, online or not, make money
> from bonuses based upon high variance as
> well as stupid play. If there is no
> variance, and you play correctly, you cannot
> lose.
> P.S., if you do find a casino that allows
> Roulette play in bonus play; I?d be hesitant
> about playing there. First, they could be
> new and not trustworthy. Second, nearly all
> I?Net casino agreements say bonuses will not
> be awarded to anyone playing purely for
> bonuses. If you are betting against
> yourself, that?s the clearest sign you could
> present.
> P.S.S. There is a very old movie that shows
> a would-be journalist in old Vegas playing
> Roulette against herself. Can?t remember the
> name ?Eand the movie was not memorable.
The commission is only payed on Banker bets. Players bets get a 1:1 payoff.
Not everybody knows: The Russian word for "toilet bowl brush" is the same word they use for "hedgehog."
> The commission is only payed on Banker bets.
> Players bets get a 1:1 payoff.
I'm not sure what your point is, Norm. The paying of the commission is already factored into the expectation of -1.0573% on Banker bets, and Player is the usual -1.2357%. Betting $100 on both simultaneously would result in a total expected loss of $2.29 for the round. If you like to think of this as a bit less than half the 5% vig on a $100 winning Banker bet, then OK, but I think you're confusing PaddyBoy.
>Some times I play baccarat to create cover
While I don't know your specific situation, I think you are probably wasting your money with baccarat cover, for a lot of reasons.
> Is there any strategy that you might be
> aware of to limit your exposure to guessing
> wrong too many times at this game?
1. Use a partner to bet both sides, but then you're putting more negative action on the table.
2. Make fewer bets! Bet only after three consecutive outcomes. Don't play at all!
>I don't plan to chase a negative
> EV game, but it would be a nice break from
> my usual 'criminal activity' if I indeed had
> a way to play it well.
If you need a break from your blackjack, maybe you can find full-pay VP, or live poker.
>It helps to be profiled as just
> another gambler,
Hide your win!
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