Eeephour: Counting Question

[Eeephour]

Here is a question. Simulations tell us if you play negative counts you will lose and playing positive counts you will win. However, it seems to me you want to play as the counts transition from high to low. Whether that is from a plus 10 running count to a minus 1 running count or a minus 1 running count to a minus 12 running count. In my short time playing, I have found the most profitable streaks have been when the count was moving negative. I have also found that if I continue to play I usually won even playing at very negative counts. My signal to leave is when I started to see small cards. If I stayed I lost, if I left I kept the money I won. The situation is similar to potential and kinetic energy in physics. Potential energy is when you have a high count. Kinetic energy is when the big cards are coming out. One does not necessarily imply the other. For example the high count at the end of the shoe with all the cards behind the cut card. Besides shuffle tracking is there any better way to predict this? It just seems counting falls short. As for shuffle tracking, has anyone been able to run simulations? Given an accurate shuffle track, how much does it increase ones odds of winning as opposed to playing just a high count?

eephour

[Norm Wattenberger]

Yes we win when the RC trends downwards. When is this most likely? When the RC is high.

[Eeephour]

> Yes we win when the RC trends downwards.
> When is this most likely? When the RC is
> high.

Yes, I understand. I am just a little frustrated with my latest results. And just to point out most likely is not when, thus, the second part of the question concerning shuffle track research. It seems that technique may answer when more accurately. Was just wondering if there was any numbers to prove that out. As my efforts to learn this technique have not been that successful and will require a lot more time and energy. I wanted to know if it was a worthwhile endeavor. Although, I think I know the answer. It would be nice to see some numbers.

eephour

[Norm Wattenberger]

By 'latest results,' I assume you are talking about a realtively short period of time. Periods of frustration are part of the game. Yes shuffle-tracking can produce better results, assuming the time investment. But, I'm afraid the ST community is tight-lipped about results studies.

BJStats

[HOLLYWOOD]

> Yes, I understand. I am just a little
> frustrated with my latest results. And just
> to point out most likely is not when, thus,
> the second part of the question concerning
> shuffle track research. It seems that
> technique may answer when more accurately.
> Was just wondering if there was any numbers
> to prove that out. As my efforts to learn
> this technique have not been that successful
> and will require a lot more time and energy.
> I wanted to know if it was a worthwhile
> endeavor. Although, I think I know the
> answer. It would be nice to see some
> numbers.

> eephour

Don't get fustrated. What happens in the short term is meaningless. Look at the big picture.
I have lost 10 in a row when i have had the count in my favor. I have won 12 in a row when the count is against me. This means nothing.

Actually the answers to your problems are quite simple. You need to do only 3 things.

1. Read BJ attack
2. Re-read BJ attack
3. When you finish reading BJ attack then the last thing you need to do is
READ BJ ATTACK AGAIN.

The rest will simply fall into place

Good luck

Hollywood

[Eeephour]

> Don't get fustrated. What happens in the
> short term is meaningless. Look at the big
> picture.
> I have lost 10 in a row when i have had the
> count in my favor. I have won 12 in a row
> when the count is against me. This means
> nothing.

> Actually the answers to your problems are
> quite simple. You need to do only 3 things.

> 1. Read BJ attack
> 2. Re-read BJ attack
> 3. When you finish reading BJ attack then
> the last thing you need to do is
> READ BJ ATTACK AGAIN.

> The rest will simply fall into place

> Good luck

> Hollywood

i know. i have and do constantly read don's book as well as wong?s books. i also practice every day with cv. i just took the biggest beating of my life, more than 80 units. While meaningless in the big picture, It is still a hard pill to swallow.

thanks for the pep talk.

eephour

[HOLLYWOOD]

> i know. i have and do constantly read don's
> book as well as wong?s books. i also
> practice every day with cv. i just took the
> biggest beating of my life, more than 80
> units. While meaningless in the big picture,
> It is still a hard pill to swallow.

> thanks for the pep talk.

> eephour

It was interesting reading your post this morning because something happened to me last night, that I thought was unique.

I played an entire 6 deck shoe and a half without winning a hand. That has never happened to me before. I was sitting at a table with 2 other people, I don't even have any idea about how many hands that is. In the mix of the whole thing I split twice and doubled 4 times. I also doubled off 2 of the splits.
By the time I won my first hand I was considering contacting the Guinis book of world records. I was down 31 units from just flat betting.

I considered myself fortunate however, because I never received a count that warented a bet increase.

As it turned out, by the time the dust cleared I was a $3,200.00 winner or 32 units at my level of play.

All I kept thinking was the quite about BJ testing your soul.

I love that quote, because it happens one way or another almost ever time I play.

Your 80 unit loss is terrible, but I have had 200 unit losses many many times. Which I use as my stop gap for the day. ROR and daily stop losses are such a part of what we do that it can fustrate the hell out of us. But, what works for me is this and I thought it might help you.

I always remember the math.

I remember what many of the masters in here taught me. The math says the following.

"It is a MATHIMATICAL CERTAINTY that over a period of time the casino will take the money from a BS player. And it is also a MATIMATICAL CERTAINTY that over a period of time the counter will take the money from the casino"

I am living proof of this. My accounting starts 1/1 of each new year. By the time I get to 12/31 of that year, i'm substantially ahead. I don't give a heck what happens in between. Whatever they take from you my friend, if you follow what you are told in this room you will take it back and more.

If I can be so bold, let me tell you one other thing I learned.

Be a robot.

In the old days, the only time when I got hurt is when I had an opinion. Have no opinion. Be mechanical. Trust the math.

Remember if the math was not true then the casino would not want you the hell out of there. I leave you with my favorite story.

My host in one of my AC casinos had a client (who I know) who came in for the weekend and dropped 40 thousand dollars. He came in again the next weekend and dropped another 40 thousand dollars.
That's 80 big ones no matter where you live.

My host gets a call the tuesday after the sunday that the guy checked out. And he was told.
"We don't want you to invite Mr. ----- back here anymore and we are canceling his lines of credit.

My host went nuts on his boss and said "are you crazy, the guy just dropped 80 in 2 weeks".

"Yes, but we monitored his play, he is a counter and a good one. And he is just on a losing streak. HE WILL TAKE BACK THAT 80 AND ALOT MORE FROM US BEFORE HE IS FINISHED, WE DON'T WANT HIM HERE"

This is no conincidence. The people in the casinos are not rocket scientists, but they also KNOW THE MATH. And it's the math that lets them know in the pig picture that guy was gonna kick there ass.

So my point, that 80 unit loss is fustrating, but meaningless. If you follow directions you will win. Trust me, there is no chance that you're not smarter then me. I'm about the weakest link in this whole room. But, what I am is a good listener.

If Don ever went back on posts where he wrote me back years ago you would laugh. He had to actually yell at me several times before I would get it. I think I fustrated him more then the casinos fustrated me.

So big guy hang in there and remember the INDIVIDUAL SESSIONS don't mean anything at the BJ table.

Good luck,

Hollywood

[Eeephour]

> It was interesting reading your post this
> morning because something happened to me
> last night, that I thought was unique.

> I played an entire 6 deck shoe and a half
> without winning a hand. That has never
> happened to me before. I was sitting at a
> table with 2 other people, I don't even have
> any idea about how many hands that is. In
> the mix of the whole thing I split twice and
> doubled 4 times. I also doubled off 2 of the
> splits.
> By the time I won my first hand I was
> considering contacting the Guinis book of
> world records. I was down 31 units from just
> flat betting.

> I considered myself fortunate however,
> because I never received a count that
> warented a bet increase.

> As it turned out, by the time the dust
> cleared I was a $3,200.00 winner or 32 units
> at my level of play.

> All I kept thinking was the quite about BJ
> testing your soul.

> I love that quote, because it happens one
> way or another almost ever time I play.

> Your 80 unit loss is terrible, but I have
> had 200 unit losses many many times. Which I
> use as my stop gap for the day. ROR and
> daily stop losses are such a part of what we
> do that it can fustrate the hell out of us.
> But, what works for me is this and I thought
> it might help you.

> I always remember the math.

> I remember what many of the masters in here
> taught me. The math says the following.

> "It is a MATHIMATICAL CERTAINTY that
> over a period of time the casino will take
> the money from a BS player. And it is also a
> MATIMATICAL CERTAINTY that over a period of
> time the counter will take the money from
> the casino"

> I am living proof of this. My accounting
> starts 1/1 of each new year. By the time I
> get to 12/31 of that year, i'm substantially
> ahead. I don't give a heck what happens in
> between. Whatever they take from you my
> friend, if you follow what you are told in
> this room you will take it back and more.

> If I can be so bold, let me tell you one
> other thing I learned.

> Be a robot.

> In the old days, the only time when I got
> hurt is when I had an opinion. Have no
> opinion. Be mechanical. Trust the math.

> Remember if the math was not true then the
> casino would not want you the hell out of
> there. I leave you with my favorite story.

> My host in one of my AC casinos had a client
> (who I know) who came in for the weekend and
> dropped 40 thousand dollars. He came in
> again the next weekend and dropped another
> 40 thousand dollars.
> That's 80 big ones no matter where you live.

> My host gets a call the tuesday after the
> sunday that the guy checked out. And he was
> told.
> "We don't want you to invite Mr. -----
> back here anymore and we are canceling his
> lines of credit.

> My host went nuts on his boss and said
> "are you crazy, the guy just dropped 80
> in 2 weeks".

> "Yes, but we monitored his play, he is
> a counter and a good one. And he is just on
> a losing streak. HE WILL TAKE BACK THAT 80
> AND ALOT MORE FROM US BEFORE HE IS FINISHED,
> WE DON'T WANT HIM HERE"

> This is no conincidence. The people in the
> casinos are not rocket scientists, but they
> also KNOW THE MATH. And it's the math that
> lets them know in the pig picture that guy
> was gonna kick there ass.

> So my point, that 80 unit loss is
> fustrating, but meaningless. If you follow
> directions you will win. Trust me, there is
> no chance that you're not smarter then me.
> I'm about the weakest link in this whole
> room. But, what I am is a good listener.

> If Don ever went back on posts where he
> wrote me back years ago you would laugh. He
> had to actually yell at me several times
> before I would get it. I think I fustrated
> him more then the casinos fustrated me.

> So big guy hang in there and remember the
> INDIVIDUAL SESSIONS don't mean anything at
> the BJ table.

> Good luck,

> Hollywood

hollywood,

thanks again.

eephour