> ... I think the gain in EV for being able to
> duck out of any stiff vs. 7-8-9 is probably
> greater than both those plays put together.
> But you do have a point.

> My problem with MathProf's analysis is I
> just don't see that many dealers passing by
> basic strategy hits like that. And when they
> do, I doubt many pit bosses would let you
> just fold the hand, even assuming the dealer
> would fess up to the error in front of her
> boss.

> I'd love to hear any RL stories where a play
> similar to this worked.

> I can think of a few exotic cases where a
> presumptuous dealer will likely help the
> player. But it's hard for me to believe the
> plusses outweigh the minuses.

> I like taking advantage of dealer errors,
> but I don't like the attention centered on
> *me* when they happen. ;-)

> ETF

Let us look at a couple of situations. One is the case where the dealer hits your hand too quickly, before you give a signal. I think it is clear to everybody that this is an advantageous situation. But Don argued that this procedure would hurt in the other situation where the dealer passed us by without hitting. Now I agree that there may be a few plays where the skipped Hit could cost us EV, but my point was that 15v7 was not one of them. Here, we still have a sportive EV against this type of dealer.

Now you saying that this "Skipped Hit" mistake doesn't happen and I agree with you. Usually experienced dealer will never go to the next player without a signal. A new dealer might. I only recall this happening to me once (discussed below).

If the premature hitter helps us, and if the premature standing doesn't happened very much, than we have more of an edge against dealers who don't wait for a signal.

Now myself, I always give very clear signals. I endeavor to play fast and to give my signals as soon as possible. Even when the dealer has anticipated them, the signal comes so close to the dealer action that it is hard to see that they were premature. However sometimes I appear to "play a hunch", and when I do that, I don't signal quickly. It is on these relatively few plays that there may be a premature dealer action.

Once I was at a low-roller casino on the strip and a 12v3 came up. I hesitated, and the dealer hit the next player with a 9. I complained that I had wanted to hit, and that was my "9". Boss came over and said I could take the next card as my hit card. I really wanted to pull out of the hand, but decided to accept this without a fuss. Actually, I wasn't wanted the hit, because it was a close play before hand, and the removal of the 9 certainly lowered the hit EV. I hit and busted on the next card, and then the boss "Just push that hand. I don't want to take his money here." This was the most favorable treatment that a player could get for this situation.

Note that in this situation, I always hit all of my 12v3 thereafter in that session. I was willing to give up that index number in order to get the money on this play. Part fo the reason I would not protest splitting 10s or doubling A9 is that I would not want to have to split 10s or double A9 for the rest of the session.

Here is another interesting situation. A rookie player was at third base, had a pair of face card and has his money in the circlet to split. Dealer passed him by and exposed her hole card. Before she could hit, the guy pointed out that he wanted to split 10s. Every at the table tried to talk the guy of this split, and he eventually took it back. The thing was: the dealer was stiff, something the other players seemed to have noticed.

PS: What does the abbreviation RL mean?