M: help: good cards running out : )

M · 08-26-2002, 02:22 PM

would it be advisable to wong into third base at a full table when the count is only slightly positive. wouldn't there be a large chance the cards turned the count negative by the time they get to me. are there any pointers on this kind of thing as far as the duration of positive counts and for where to sit at a full table when both playing all and backcounting?

thanks again.

Don Schlesinger · 08-26-2002, 04:41 PM

> would it be advisable to wong into third
> base at a full table when the count is only
> slightly positive.

Why are you back-counting a full table? Go elsewhere!!

> wouldn't there be a large
> chance the cards turned the count negative
> by the time they get to me.

No, absolutely not. The TC doesn't tend to change as cards are dealt out. Fundamental theorem of the game.

> are there any
> pointers on this kind of thing as far as the
> duration of positive counts and for where to
> sit at a full table when both playing all
> and backcounting?

1. Don't play full tables. 2. Especially, don't "play-all" full tables!! 3. There are no "pointers," because the phenomenon you mention doesn't exist. 4. The more who play before you, the more cards you see before playing your own hand, therefore, the greater your edge.

Don

M · 08-26-2002, 04:48 PM

OK. One more thing Don: "The TC doesn't tend to change as cards are dealt out. Fundamental theorem of the game." Can you expand on this a little more, how does the TC change?

thanks for the answers.

Don Schlesinger · 08-26-2002, 07:21 PM

>Can you expand on this a little more, how does
the TC change?

It changes as a random walk. It has a mean and a variance around that mean. But, it doesn't tend to get lower, if it's high, or higher, if it's low. The running count exhibits that property, as, eventually, for a balanced count, it must return to zero. The true count exhibits no such tendency.

See BJA, p. 335.

Don