GA: Player edge given THIRD card?

[GA]

Full table (7 spots).
You are sitting at the first base.
Before the next round, you know that the 17th card in the shoe is X.
Should you bet big?
Never seen this subject in BJ books.

thanx,
GA

[Don Schlesinger]

> Full table (7 spots).
> You are sitting at the first base.
> Before the next round, you know that the
> 17th card in the shoe is X.
> Should you bet big?
> Never seen this subject in BJ books.

Actually, the question boils down to: What is my edge and what should I bet if I know that one card in my hand (or, alternatively, the first card in my hand) is going to be a ten? And, along with the same question for an ace, it has been asked and answered many, many times.

Answer: Depending on rules, about 14%.

Don

[Mr.X]

Don, I disagree.
I say this question boils down to what is the advantage in playing against a dealer who pushes off the top card, or in this case, pushes off the 1st top card only, and only for the player in 1st base.
Push-off dealers are VERY rare, but valuable- more valuable than hole card dealers. Particularly when you are at or near 3rd base, since you not only control the card you get, but also can force the dealer to take a lot of 10's.
I can ramble on alot about this, but the answer to the question is- you have a strong advantage, bet big.

[adhoc]

I thought GA's hypo was setting up a situation where the hit card, if necessary for lst base player, would be a ten. Did I misunderstand?

regards,
adhoc

> Actually, the question boils down to: What
> is my edge and what should I bet if I know
> that one card in my hand (or, alternatively,
> the first card in my hand) is going to be a
> ten? And, along with the same question for
> an ace, it has been asked and answered many,
> many times.

> Answer: Depending on rules, about 14%.

> Don

[Don Schlesinger]

> I thought GA's hypo was setting up a
> situation where the hit card, if necessary
> for lst base player, would be a ten. Did I
> misunderstand?

No, I did! You're right. And, I have no idea what the answer is. I don't know the value of a ten as a possible hit card, if you want it, otherwise, passing on it. Obviously, it would be excellent for a hard-doubling opportunity and poor for hitting any hand above 11. But, avoiding breaking a stiff is worth something, albeit not too much vs. dealer's 7-ace. You simply postpone the inevitable in most cases.

So, all in all, there's an edge here, but not a monumental one, I don't think.

Don

[Mr.X]

In this case, if the player has a pat hand, there is no EV. But if he is stiff vs a high dealer card, he stands, and avoids a bust. Since the dealer will bust around 24% of the time with a high card (depending on which high card, and, to get picky, what the count is), then the way I calculate the EV (and I DO calculate the EV on a running basis like this)is 48% of the bet. $12 of EV on a $25 bet. Logic is, without the read, I'd have hit the stiff and busted, for an edge of -100%. But if I stay pat, I win 24%, lose 76%, for EV of -52%, which is 48% better than -100%.
Note that, if I were at 3rd base (or if no one hits), then the dealer gets the 10. So, the dealer will ALWAYS bust if she's stiff! So, if the high card is 7, 8 or 9, she will bust about 5 out of 13 times, or 38.5%, for an EV of a whopping 77% for that push-off knowledge. And if the dealer has 10 J Q K , she busts 5 out of 12 (assuming casino uses BJ mirror), for a bust rate of 41.6%, for a whopping 83%! Nice work if you can get it. Too bad pushoff dealers are VERY hard to find.

[ET Fan]

> Full table (7 spots).
> You are sitting at the first base.
> Before the next round, you know that the
> 17th card in the shoe is X.
> Should you bet big?

Yes. I'm not assuming you mean X = T. Off hand, I'd guess that knowing the card is a 7 or 8 would be more valuable than knowing it's a T. Just the chance to double on a hard 13 has got to be worth SOMEthing!

I'll hazard a pure guess: 2%. That's what I think knowing the 17th card is worth. It could be worth more if you're playing two hands. You might occassionally stand on, say, a hard 6, in order to slam dunk a double on the second hand. There might be other times when you stand to keep the 17th card for the dealer. (Perhaps the other players all look pat.) Finally, there's a chance card #17 will be your first card on the next round. Then, if X = T, or X = A, you've really got something!

ETF

[GA]

> Before the next round, you know that the
> 17th card in the shoe is X.

Thanks for all the answers!

This X in my question stands for 2-9, Ten and Ace.

I know my edge if I know what my 1st or 2nd card is going to be.

Player edge given 1st or 2nd card:
(6D, ENHC, S17, D9, DAS, RS4, RSA)

2 = -13.3%
3 = -15.4%
4 = -17.8%
5 = -19.9%
6 = -21.1%
7 = -18.3%
8 = -8.6%
9 = -1.0%
T = +14.3%
A = +50.8%

I was refering to my first hit card (third card) like adhoc said.

Does all the cards give me advantage?

-GA

[Don Schlesinger]

Thank you for an excellent analysis that I should have provided. I fired off an answer much too quickly last night, as I wanted to watch the women's skating.

I agree with your numbers and would point out, as well, that the edge is even bigger, still. We have indices for doubling and they sometimes counsel us to not double, because of an insufficient count to make the play. Obviously, if we KNOW a ten is coming, we double, period. And, that has to be worth some extra EV.

Don

[Mr.X]

Thanks for the kind words, Don!
A few more comments-

> We have indices for doubling and they
> sometimes counsel us to not double, because
> of an insufficient count to make the play.
> Obviously, if we KNOW a ten is coming, we
> double, period. And, that has to be worth
> some extra EV.

I do count even when playing "flashers". And I
keep a running count of the EV, based on what
I call "strategy switches", plays I make with
flasher knowledge that varies from what I would
have done otherwise. So, if I KNOW a 10 is
coming and I have an 11 vs a dealer 10, I
am happy I am going to get a 21, but I do NOT credit anything for EV, because I would
have doubled anyway, and gotten the 10 for
a 21 anyway, so no strategy switch. Now,
if I had a 10 vs dealer 10, and see a push-
off of a nextcard 10, I would double that,
and THAT counts as EV, since I would not
have normally doubled-I am doing a strategy
switch based on the flash. A 20 vs a 10 is
about a 58% edge. I would have gotten the
20 anyway, but NOT on the doubled amount,
so I calculate my EV as about 58% of the
amount I doubled. So, on a $25 bet, it's
EV of about 12 bucks.
Also, in reference to your comments on index nubers, I agree.In the case of an 11 vs a 10, if the
count was negative enough to justify NOT
doubling, but I see a nextcard 10, I double
and I take EV credit, since that now becomes
a strategy switch.
PS-sorry about the spacing, I'm having
trouble with editing.

[Mr.X]

One rule of thumb I have is-don't do anything a bad player would NOT do. This play comes close, but I think falls on the safe side.
If I have an ace-5 vs a dealer 6, BS is, of course, to double. But if you see a nextcard pushoff of a 10, you'd have a doubled 16. You would only win if dealer busts, about 41% of the time, so EV is -18% X 2 = -36%, approx. So just hitting (instead of doubling)in that case saves 18%.
But wait- if you are on third base, or near 3rd and see no one is hitting and the dealer gets the next card, I say that instead of doubling the soft 16 or just hitting it, you should STAY ON SIX if the nextcard is a 10. That way, you feed the dealer the ten, so with 6 up and 10 nextcard, she will bust if she has 6 thru K, or 61%, for an edge of +22%.
So, BS is Double. Assuming nextcard 10, player has -18% X 2 (for double) = -36% disadvantage. By STAYING on the soft 16 gives a +22%, for a hefty EV based on nextcard knowledge of +58% for staying on soft 16!
I want to emphasize nextcard flashers are EXTREMELY rare, so I rarely get this chance. But it's fun when I do!