artguy: Recent Convert to BC

[artguy]

After reading your BJA I came across a concept (among several)which radically changed my play and my winnings. You suggested that when back counting a table, make sure the count is high enough to hold for a while before sitting down to play. I have interpreted that point to be at TC2 and it has dramatically changed the percentage of wining shoes I play. This is in contrast to earlier attempts to play at TC1 which were disappointing for the most part.

As I anticipate going to LV next week, my question is re: how much camo is needed when I play only 5-10 minutes at a time 3x/hr? If I score +30 units should I boogie or is it safe to find a table in a different pit? In other words, is my play being tracked from the sky regardless of where I play in the casino and can that lead to uncomfortable questions and/or expulsion?

Artguy

PS. I employed your concept after hours of frustrating DD play with 3+ players from 5-8AM over several days (in Minnesota). Play was slow and I lost 60 units over several tables. The tables were so crowded, the only way I could recoup my losses was to BC the tables. I got back my losses( plus)in four hours playing fairly timidly. I am now entering play with 2 units at TC2 and have been able to move up to 6 units quite quickly with dramatic results. Thanks for the tip!!!

[Don Schlesinger]

Also, please do not put too much emphasis on the results of short-term play as to what it did, or didn't, accomplish for you. You may have very well continued to lose at +2 counts, or you may have been better off at the +1 counts that you passed up. Your personal results are NOT a reliable indicator of the value of the strategy.

Same for your DD results. DD is not inherently "evil" (far from it!). Don't put too much stock in what happens for just a relatively small number of hands.

Don

[artguy]

Your answer creates new qustions for me because I don't know what the red flags are relative to interest from above. I presume that winning 30 units in a 7 minute session and walking away creates more interest from the PB than winning 4 units and walking.

Would you recommend leaving the casino after any 25-30 unit win regardless of time expended or can I continue to cruise for another table until the hour is up? Is time the issue here?

Secondly, if I play one 7 minute session with minimal results and find only one other table to play at within the hour (again with minimal results)should I still leave? If "yes" then I take it that the activity of cruising for tables is the issue and can be spotted given enough time.

This speaks to the general awareness of back counters in LV casinos. In the 6 midwest casinos I have played there doesn't seem to be much at all.

Artguy

[Don Schlesinger]

here?"

I'd leave.

"Secondly, if I play one 7 minute session with minimal results and find only one other table to play at within the hour (again with minimal results)should I still leave? If "yes" then I take it that the activity of cruising for tables is the issue and can be spotted given enough time."

Yes, to all of the above.

Don

[ET Fan]

In the 6 midwest casinos I have played there doesn't seem to be much at all.

I think there is awareness of counters in Midwest casinos. The difference may be that in the Midwest, casinos are still fighting to expand, so they're very concerned about public opinion. In LV, they have the gaming board and the courts all wrapped up. They protect themslelves partially by keeping low table max's, although backoffs and barrings do occur.

ETF

[ET Fan]

They protect themslelves partially by keeping low table max's, although backoffs and barrings do occur.

I meant this to apply to MidWest casinos, not Vegas.

ETF

[artguy]

I'm slow at processing everything you say and have been meditating over your implication that a +1 count may be as good as a +2 count to begin play. My math tells me that I have a .5% advantage when I begin play at +2 and that is certainly more advantageous than being even with the house at +1.

Its obvious there are no guarantees on which count will win, but I choose to let Math be my compass and stay with a +2 entry.

Artguy

[Don Schlesinger]

For the 4.5/6, das, ls, standard Strip game, if you use hi-lo and the I18 and Fab4, your edge at +1 is slightly greater than 0.50%, and your edge at +2 is more than 1%.

Don

[just_checking]

starting adv.

[just_checking(correction)]

xxx

[Don Schlesinger]

I just did that for one such game and you didn't seem to like the answer. Not much I can do about that.

Your reasoning is too simplistic. You're quoting an off-the-top BS disadvantage, which is not the same as a global edge at TC = 0, especially when you use strategy departures. Then, you're approximating a linear jump in edge of 0.50% per hi-lo TC, which isn't exact, either, again, especially when you use indices.

Don

[just_checking]

I was referring to your response to Artguy describing 4.5/6,Das,Ls and I presume S17. I believe this is a starting adv. of -.33 so it would seem to me that Hi-Lo +1 brings this up to a player advantage of +.17 and for Hi-Lo +2 it is +.67 but if my calculations are globally or otherwise incorrect please let me know. I am assuming the each true of +1 brings the true up .50% from the SA. I guess different numbers of index#'s employed could change this. If the IL18 indices bring that to over .5% and 1% respectively I'd be very happy!

JC

[Don Schlesinger]

EV at TC = +1 is 0.51%. At TC = +2, EV is 1.12%.

Again, the starting advantage for the BS player is NOT the edge at TC = 0 for the counter (although it is close). And the gain in edge, per true count, for the counter employing indices is NOT a linear 0.50%. In this instance, the first jump from 0 to +1 adds 0.81% to the hi-lo counter's edge

Don