Shark: Optimal exit strategy for 10% rebate on loss

[Shark]

The rules of this land are 6Dk ENHC S17 DOA DAS ES10. Penetration is a poor 4.0/6. Table limits are $25-$250 and all casinos pay 10% cashback on actual session loss (limited to one session per day). There are many casinos in close proximity. These are bricks and mortar casinos and the only game in town. This is not a promo but the rule of the land. I am interested in optimal strategy to exploit this game. Specifically optimal exit strategy. Currently, I play head on short sessions (100 hands per session) spreading 2*$25 to 2*$250 and go to the next casino. Since my BR can afford extra ROR I am thinking to increase the variance by "overbetting" the TC where EV=~0 . Will this tactic boost the cashback rebate?
I thank in advance all who care to answer, Shark
P.S. Please forgive any gramatical errors as English is not my mother's language.

[Don Schlesinger]

Well, you still have no edge at TC = 0, so if you bet more at a negative advantage, it's going to hurt your EV. You get cashback when you lose, so if you're looking to increase your chances of losing, that will do it! But, why would you want to do that?

Don

[Shark]

Thanks for taking the time to reply. TC=0 includes situations where I have the edge as well as situation with disadvantage. I ran sims for this game playing 6 min. bet hands at non positive count and 2 max. bet hands at positive counts (flooring). it turned out that at TC=0 adv.=-0.009 and the count appears 33% of the time. I was thinking that if I overbet the TC where adv.=0 I increase session variance without hurting EV. I thought that in this game special circuumstances high variance is welcome,as long as my BR can stand the flactuations.I guess I was wrong.
Any ideas about stop win/loss points instead of my arbitrary 100 hands per session?
I also imported this game's sim to BJRM and for 100 hands sessions the rebate I collected amounted to 0.5% of money wagered on 10000 sessions.Thanks,Shark

[Don Schlesinger]

So, if you feel like increasing your variance because you think you need to, go ahead!

As for stop/loss points, they are completely arbitrary, have no mathematical basis, and are implemented solely for cover and occasional psychological peace of mind.

Don

[ET Fan]

Are you allowed to play more than one hand at table max?

I have some thoughts on how to exploit this promo. Would you like me to post them here or via email?

ETF

[G Man]

[Shark]

ETF,
Since I play head on most of the time I am required to play a minimum of two hands at a time. The only alternative is playing full tables. I would be very greatful for your thoughts about exploiting this game. BTW, it's not a promo but the rule of the land. Please, email me your Ideas.
Thanks in advance,Shark

[Jake { :>)]

I believe G-man is right. Ideally you would like to settle up after one hand and start again. Since you can not do this in the real world you need to set parameters that will trigger rebates or session win termination at an acceptable rate in a normal playing session. If you do this with win/loss limits then you can change your bets when you have the edge to increase your variance and probability of hitting a bound.

{|:>)
Jake

[Vetsen]

Griffin covers this situation in his "extra stuff" book. I believe optimum trials for a small house edge on an even money payout (craps, bs bj) with a 10% loss rebate is something like 7 decisions. An odd number is better than even and the more volatility the better (numbers on roulette). This is assuming you're attempting to beat the rebate and not the count game, obviously.

Vet

[Jake { :>)]

" This is assuming you're attempting to beat the rebate and not the count game"

you are not trying to maximize the rebate you are trying to max your win as a card counter with that 'extra' available so that is not the solution we are after.

{|:>)
Jake

[MathProf]

I am sorry that I came into this late. Perhaps some of these issues have been addressed below.

First, you do have a nice edge on the last hand, if you are even at that point. Note that you are basically risking $90 to get $100. Even in very negative TCs, you have an edge with this.

But, if you are so far in the black at the end that you cannot possibly end up with a loss, then you gain no value from the rebate. The same thing is true if you are so far in the red that you cannot get into the black.

If you weren't counting, your edge would depend on how close you were to the last hand, and how close you are to 0. Biggest edge is when you are at exactly 0 on the very last hand. Almost no edge if you are well in the black or red, or very far from the last session.

You could try to put together an optimal strategy that reflects the count and the rebate.