Hard 8 :: ::: Balancing Score vs Win Rate

[Hard 8 :: ::]

Speaking as a low roller, it seems to me that, overall, conditions in this town have improved quite a bit recently. This has crept up on me to the extent that my target screening process is consistently generating more venues than I can reasonably hit in a four-or five day visit. The plethora of targets is not the problem, per se.

My dilemma arises because of apparently increasing gaps between Scores and expected Win Rates at different venues.

In the past, I have generated my list by first culling out all the booshwa games like 6:5, csm, superfun, etc. etc. Then, based on rules and pen, generated a Score, then ranked them by Score, and then hit only the top targets. As an interim step, I'd calculate a Win Rate, which was tied either to my trip bankroll for the expensive games, or to the maximum anticipated bet and bet spread for the low-roller games, but I didn't seriously factor in Win Rates in my ranking. Or, more precisely, at my then-bankroll levels, the Scores and Win Rates pretty much matched. Even with some relatively lax criteria (i. e. playing some pretty crappy games,) the list was usually short enough that I could hit all of the targets and then go back and hit the top Scores, (or even crummy games in venues I liked,) twice or more, even given the constraint of walking or riding the bus to most venues. I could do this and even get more than four hours sleep per night. (Now, I mix up my trips, part walking/bus and part rental car, as some outlying localities eat up too much time on the bus.)

Lately, however, my target list has grown too long, and my current dilemma is rooted in the fact that the gap between Score and Win Rate of different venues has increased significantly. In other words, some of the best Scoring venues have a potential Win Rate seriously limited by the amount of money you can get on the table, while some of the lower- or mediocre Scoring games have amazing potential Win Rates at my bankroll level.

Meanwhile, there is a long list of targets that have medium-level Scores, coupled with Win Rates that match (mediocre) at my bankroll level.

So, I'm looking for thoughts and advice, on whether to dump the sawdust joints which have great Scores, where one is just grinding out a piffling Win Rate, or to skip the higher costing games because of their relatively lower (but still acceptable) Scores.

Gradually, I have dumped the idea of playing at "favorite" venues if they don't have the numbers. But this sure makes me nostalgic for the old days, when there were so many excellent venues, you could almost just go door-to- door-to door, hitting 'em all. I still remember Buick Riviera's old route list from downtown, where you could play 1.0 hour at each joint, roll next door and so on, through the entire cycle, and then keep going through the list again because they had changed shifts. (Parker used to keep us updated on the shift-change times, so we knew how to stagger our schedules.) Then you'd spend a day doing the same out on the Strip, then the next day out on the Boulder Highway, then back to downtown to run through a couple more shifts. It struck home one time that I might be carrying things to extremes when I sat down to a nickel double-deck game at the Main St Sta at 5:00 on a Thursday morning, and the PC announced to the rest of the casino (a couple beer-soaked all-nighters, some really bored dealers, a fellow PC, and a couple up-and at-'em retired military type guys in the jogging shorts and tee-shirts), "Whoo-we! Look at that guy's eyes!" I looked around to see whom he was talking about. Later, I looked in the mirror in the bathroom where I was counting a huge pile of rat-holed chips, and a bloodshot raccoon seemed to be looking out at me.

Man, that was fun.

Anyhow, any advice or ideas on the growing Score - Win Rate Gap would be appreciated.

:: ::

[Blackjack Knight]

> Speaking as a low roller, it seems to me that,
> overall, conditions in this town have improved quite a
> bit recently. This has crept up on me to the extent
> that my target screening process is consistently
> generating more venues than I can reasonably hit in a
> four-or five day visit. The plethora of targets is not
> the problem, per se.

> My dilemma arises because of apparently increasing
> gaps between Scores and expected Win Rates at
> different venues.

> In the past, I have generated my list by first culling
> out all the booshwa games like 6:5, csm, superfun,
> etc. etc. Then, based on rules and pen, generated a
> Score, then ranked them by Score, and then hit only
> the top targets. As an interim step, I'd calculate a
> Win Rate, which was tied either to my trip bankroll
> for the expensive games, or to the maximum anticipated
> bet and bet spread for the low-roller games, but I
> didn't seriously factor in Win Rates in my ranking.
> Or, more precisely, at my then-bankroll levels, the
> Scores and Win Rates pretty much matched. Even with
> some relatively lax criteria (i. e. playing some
> pretty crappy games,) the list was usually short
> enough that I could hit all of the targets and then go
> back and hit the top Scores, (or even crummy games in
> venues I liked,) twice or more, even given the
> constraint of walking or riding the bus to most
> venues. I could do this and even get more than four
> hours sleep per night. (Now, I mix up my trips, part
> walking/bus and part rental car, as some outlying
> localities eat up too much time on the bus.)

> Lately, however, my target list has grown too long,
> and my current dilemma is rooted in the fact that the
> gap between Score and Win Rate of different venues has
> increased significantly. In other words, some of the
> best Scoring venues have a potential Win Rate
> seriously limited by the amount of money you can get
> on the table, while some of the lower- or mediocre
> Scoring games have amazing potential Win Rates at my
> bankroll level.

> Meanwhile, there is a long list of targets that have
> medium-level Scores, coupled with Win Rates that match
> (mediocre) at my bankroll level.

> So, I'm looking for thoughts and advice, on whether to
> dump the sawdust joints which have great Scores, where
> one is just grinding out a piffling Win Rate, or to
> skip the higher costing games because of their
> relatively lower (but still acceptable) Scores.

> Gradually, I have dumped the idea of playing at
> "favorite" venues if they don't have the
> numbers. But this sure makes me nostalgic for the old
> days, when there were so many excellent venues, you
> could almost just go door-to- door-to door, hitting
> 'em all. I still remember Buick Riviera's old route
> list from downtown, where you could play 1.0 hour at
> each joint, roll next door and so on, through the
> entire cycle, and then keep going through the list
> again because they had changed shifts. (Parker used to
> keep us updated on the shift-change times, so we knew
> how to stagger our schedules.) Then you'd spend a day
> doing the same out on the Strip, then the next day out
> on the Boulder Highway, then back to downtown to run
> through a couple more shifts. It struck home one time
> that I might be carrying things to extremes when I sat
> down to a nickel double-deck game at the Main St Sta
> at 5:00 on a Thursday morning, and the PC announced to
> the rest of the casino (a couple beer-soaked
> all-nighters, some really bored dealers, a fellow PC,
> and a couple up-and at-'em retired military type guys
> in the jogging shorts and tee-shirts), "Whoo-we!
> Look at that guy's eyes!" I looked around to see
> whom he was talking about. Later, I looked in the
> mirror in the bathroom where I was counting a huge
> pile of rat-holed chips, and a bloodshot raccoon
> seemed to be looking out at me.

> Man, that was fun.

> Anyhow, any advice or ideas on the growing Score - Win
> Rate Gap would be appreciated.

> :: ::

One thought - You may want to keep your bets stable from place to place. You would want to bet about the same given a 1% advantage from place to place given standard deviation considerations. If you play big at one place and small at others then your results will clump around the big bets.

Second thought - Once you are betting less then say quarter or fifth kelly fixed you are underbetting and should maybe drop the place.