Originally Posted by itrack
Yes, the OP did say early surrender. If it's the location I think it is, I've heard that there are good games to be found.
During your next session I would be very careful to only play 2 hands in positive counts and do not put arbitrary time limits on your sessions....that can be dangerous...longevitity is NOT a goal right now...u are in crisis mode...preserve BK and play only optimally at all costs until your BK increases
I have just a couple general comments.
I have often lost at games where the rules were exceptionally good. I think the reason is that the good rules tend to loosen up your play. At least for me, I have been guilty of over-betting figuring that the good rules will see me through. The difference between good rules and bad is usually, one game is playable, but only yields a scant 1% to 2% edge overall, and the other is either unplayable or barely playable yielding little or no edge. With all the bad games around, one might be tempted to treat a good game like it was a candy store, and it is not; it requires all the vigilance and diligence than one can muster up. In general, there are no easy games. When you find one, you won't be posting anything about it on a forum, at least, not when it is still available.
Sometimes, I play too long. This often occurs if things do not go my way initially, and especially if the rules are good. I figure I can turn a losing session into a winning session, if I just hang in there. On paper, maybe, yes, but in reality we are not machines. Most of us can play perfectly for a few hours, but as time goes on, we begin to tire and it shows up in occasional poor plays, impulsive plays, steaming behavior, outright mistakes, and overall less than optimum judgment. Fortunately, for me, I am so extroverted that my energy levels tend to increase the more I play, especially if I am able to verbally interact with the dealers, pit supervisors and other players. But even at that, at some point their is diminished performance. Being at your best is critical when playing with such a small edge afforded by card counting.
Lastly, as others have pointed out, your bankroll first of all must be sufficient for the level at which you are playing, and secondly, if you still feel emotionally tied to your bankroll, you need to increase it even beyond the usual general guidelines until you reach a comfort level where it does bother you when things go south.
I agree with all who say analyze you game in retrospect, study to improve it, practice if that is lacking, and take some time off to get your mental state back in equilibrium. Balance, poise, confidence, positive outlook, sense of well being, etc. are all important ingredients in successful card counting.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
Something Tarzan wrote struck me. He stated he has lost his trip bankroll, and I've come very close myself. If I understand the OP, he is stating he lost his entire bankroll, not once but twice now. Something is seriously amiss here. Me thinks Op is way under-funded to begin with. And addiction, I think is also indicated. If you are willing to state you think you may have a problem on a public forum (even anonymously), then you probably do. Do some real soul-searching as to casino activities.
Sick,
This is all very good advice from your peers......the limited size of your BR, steaming, stepping away and re-examining your game, etc.....but to answer your primary question directly; it would not hurt you right now to walk into a GA meeting. You will know within the first 20 minutes of the meeting is you have a gambling problem or not. You will hear others talk and you will either say "holy sh*t, this is me!" or you will say "I don't have a gambling problem, I just need to improve my game on all levels." There is a peace of mind that will come to you from this experience either way (and which you clearly do not have right now).
Every AP either does or did at one point struggle with the emotional swings that losses can bring upon you. What I have found is that knowledge is power. The more you learn the more you come to realize that if you play the right way then you are not GAMBLING; you are investing. There are ups and downs (AKA: Risks) associated with every investment. After a long period of religious study and practice and increased knowledge of the game (all facets) the emotion seems to dissipate and wanes to the point where you don't even care about what happens in the short term.
If you do decide to go to a GA meeting and walk out realizing that you have a problem then stay with the program and you will have to give up your AP career and move into something you are better suited for. But if you walk out realizing that you just need to improve your game then I suggest you not play for at least 6 months and devote that time to learning and practice and rebuilding a sizable bank roll that can withstand the ups and downs of the EV and the SD.
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/index.php
I like the guideline of 100 max bets but I didn't have that much to start with. With the games that were available to me at the beginning and the BR I was able to set aside for AP, I only had 50 max bets to start with. With patience that has grown to over 100 max bets. I think the best thing that comes from an increased br is that you are not playing on "scared money" anymore......this allows you to play your game the way you have practiced and envisioned it.
Under no circumstances should the OP be anywhere near a casino in the near future. Doesn't understand basics of counting, such as bankroll management, and has a serious control problem in casinos.
It sounds like there is a serious addiction underneath this, which is a spiritual issue that needs to be settled before anything else.
Can't be reiterated enough, this is is a game of PATIENCE, plenty of times felt the urge to overbet on losing streaks, to make it back, but have to resist it, AP'ing is typically just a long grind. Unfortunately I think many come into AP'ing hearing tales of those hitting it big quickly (e.g., I think of the stories of the MIT team out in the media, winning hundreds of thousands on a weekend, and for any seasoned AP'er they know how misleading and patently absurd many of these tales are). This leads to a distorted misconception of AP'ing, and anyone who does go through this is just going through typical variance. It requires hundreds of hours of play to realize any semblance of your long term expected win. Anything less than that is an aberration and a crap shoot.
The "get yourself safely home" and "take a break" advice is sound, and I hope you do it. As your head clears, perhaps you would profit from an objective look at your bankroll size criteria. Unless your bankroll is at least 150 max bets for one spot, or 200 max bets for 2 spots, it is too small. Unless you were playing an unimaginably large shoe, it seems almost impossible to lose that many max bets in one shoe ( eg 8 decks = 416 cards = <80 rounds assuming you were playing one spot heads up -- you would have had to split or double every hand and lose 75 hands in a row to manage it). Further, from what I understand, most seasoned players play at 0.25 Kelly, or thereabouts, which yields a 0.0003 (3/10,000) chance of ruin. Better yet, 0.20 Kelly yields a less than 0.00005 (5/100,000) chance of ruin, for about 80% of 0.25 Kelly betting levels for any given bankroll and game. How do your numbers stack up?
This thread is the best example I have seen of a group helping a fellow member. There was no attack, no mean spirited posts or derogatory comments. This is really a group helping each other and this thread proves it. Sick, you have exposed the kindness and compassion of your friends here. Now it is time to prosper from their friendship.
Actually playing a loosing high count isn't as much the question for me as a noob. Its when I've won three or four in the 3 or 4 true count range and done maybe 30 units of damage to the house that I'm tempted to back off to half of my ramp, even if the count goes higher. I know this is arimetically the wrong answer but when you are playing with an extremely modest bankroll, its nice to leave the shoe a few hundred up rather than break even by loosing two larger high counts or end up with a loss in the shoe. And even at half the count if I win, I'm way smiling. If I loose, I'm still smiling. I know that its wrong and something that I'm working on.
Oneoff
I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!
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