Suppose I want to sim a betting strategy that requires a 1 to 25 spread, where the counter wagers 5 units for the first and only first round of every shoe and then drops down to 1 unit for subsequent rounds until the counts warrants increasing the bet. Can the software handle this?
What about a betting strategy that is the same as the one above, but the 5 unit bet off the top of the shoe continues until the counter loses a round?
MJ
I believe CVData can handle both of these. For the first option, you have the "Reset after shuffle button" that bet the amount you input as the first bet after shuffle.
Then for the second part of your question, I think you can only activate the "do not decrease after a win" option.
> Suppose I want to sim a betting strategy that requires
> a 1 to 25 spread, where the counter wagers 5 units for
> the first and only first round of every shoe and then
> drops down to 1 unit for subsequent rounds until the
> counts warrants increasing the bet. Can the software
> handle this?
I don't know about the software, but I certainly can! :-)
Just start with one unit on the first round, make your 1-25 spread assumption and run the sim. When you get the answer, subtract the e.v. from the extra four units you bet on the first round, which is played, after all, with BS, and multiply by the number of shoes per hour (say five).
So, suppose you were going to spread $1 to $25. But, you bet $5 on the first, and only the first, round of each shoe. When the sim is done, you need to subtract, say, 0.26% (LV Strip, best rules) of $4, or one cent (!) from your sim result! So, it costs you a nickel an hour.
If you're spreading $100 to $2,500, you lose five dollars an hour.
Don
> Suppose I want to sim a betting strategy that requires
> a 1 to 25 spread, where the counter wagers 5 units for
> the first and only first round of every shoe and then
> drops down to 1 unit for subsequent rounds until the
> counts warrants increasing the bet. Can the software
> handle this?
This is handled by the Basic strategy screen. As G Man said, set it to bet 5 units in the first round and 1 unit for all other rounds.
> What about a betting strategy that is the same as the
> one above, but the 5 unit bet off the top of the shoe
> continues until the counter loses a round?
This requires the Advanced screen. Set the first round bet to 5 units. After a 1 unit bet, always bet 1 unit. After a 5 unit bet, bet 5 units if you win and 1 unit if you lose.
Thanks Don. Well, that certainly explains how EV is affected. But what about SD and SCORE? SD will increase and SCORE must decrease. Anyway to ballpark those figures?
Suppose the 1 to 25 bet spread yields a 50 SCORE. How many dollars do you guess are lost betting 5 units off the top?
MJ
> I don't know about the software, but I certainly can!
> :-)
> Just start with one unit on the first round, make your
> 1-25 spread assumption and run the sim. When you get
> the answer, subtract the e.v. from the extra four
> units you bet on the first round, which is played,
> after all, with BS, and multiply by the number of
> shoes per hour (say five).
> So, suppose you were going to spread $1 to $25. But,
> you bet $5 on the first, and only the first, round of
> each shoe. When the sim is done, you need to subtract,
> say, 0.26% (LV Strip, best rules) of $4, or one cent
> (!) from your sim result! So, it costs you a nickel an
> hour.
> If you're spreading $100 to $2,500, you lose five
> dollars an hour.
> Don
> Thanks Don. Well, that certainly explains how EV is
> affected. But what about SD and SCORE? SD will
> increase and SCORE must decrease.
Well, s.d. increases by the amount of extra s.d. the extra four units will incur five times per hour. That's a piece of cake to figure as well. So, because the four extra units are played at negative e.v., SCORE gets hit doubly -- the e.v. is ever-so-slightly lower AND the s.d. is greater -- just the opposite of what you want. But, you knew that going in.
The s.d. for a hand of blackjack is about 1.15 units. Since you have four extra units, making one such bet incurs 4.60 units of extra s.d. per hand. If you have five such hands per hour, the increase in s.d. is sqrt(5) x 4.60 = 10.29 units per hour.
So, e.v. goes in the numerator, to get SCORE, s.d. goes in the denominator, and that value is squared. If you know the original SCORE's e.v. and s.d., you would now make the above adjustments to get the new SCORE.
> Anyway to ballpark
> those figures?
See above.
> Suppose the 1 to 25 bet spread yields a 50 SCORE. How
> many dollars do you guess are lost betting 5 units off
> the top?
Get the individual numerators and denominators, and follow the above. In other words, a 50 SCORE is a 7.07 DI (the square root). That means hourly s.d. is about 14 times hourly e.v. Plug in your actual numbers and do the math. Shouldn't be hard.
Don
MJ,
Suppose I want to sim a betting strategy that requires a 1 to 25 spread, where the counter wagers 5 units for the first and only first round of every shoe and then drops down to 1 unit for subsequent rounds until the counts warrants increasing the bet. Can the software handle this?
I ran three 400-million-round sims of a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS, 75% penetration game for a lone HiLo counter spreading 1:25 according to the following bet schedule (with units in nickels):
.
TC Bet
<=0 1
+1 4
+2 8
+3 16
+4 25
In the first sim, the player bet strictly with the count. He had a Win Rate of $21.98, an IBA of 1.219% with a S.E. of 0.04, a per-hand Std. Dev. of 8.24, a SCORE of 28.47, and an N0 of 35,125. Here, the player NEVER bet 5 units.
In the second sim, the player bet strictly with the count, except that he bet 5 units on the first hand only of each shoe. He had a Win Rate of $21.45, an IBA of 1.160% with a S.E. of 0.04, a per-hand Std. Dev. of 8.28, a SCORE of 26.86, and an N0 of 37,225. In this sim, the player played 9,293,299 shoes and bet 5 units 9,552,011 times, the extras due to splits and/or double downs.
To run this sim, on the Betting Strategy page, I checked the "Reset after shuffle" box and set the Shuffle Bet: spinner to 5.
What about a betting strategy that is the same as the one above, but the 5 unit bet off the top of the shoe continues until the counter loses a round?
In the third sim, the player bet strictly with the count, except that he bet 5 units at the start of each shoe, and continued betting 5 units per round until he lost a round. After his first loss of the shoe, he bet strictly with the count, so if, for example, when he lost the count was +4, on the next round he'd bet 25. He had a Win Rate of $21.84, an IBA of 1.158% with a S.E. of 0.04, a per-hand Std. Dev. of 8.32, a SCORE of 27.58, and an N0 of 36,255. In this sim, the player played 9,293,479 shoes and bet 5 units 16,949,476 times.
To run this sim, on the Betting Strategy page, I checked the "Reset after shuffle" box and set the Shuffle Bet: spinner to 5. Then on the Advanced page, every row should read 1, 4, 8, 16, 25 except for the "Won" row for the "5" bet, which should read 5, 5, 5, 5, 5.
Note that this method will not work if a 5-unit bet is also part of the regular bet schedule. For example, if the bet schedule calls for a 5-unit bet at a TC of +1, with this method the player will be "stuck" on 5 units (until a loss) every time the count gets to +1.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Thanks Dog! You basically answered everything.
I am surprised that the 3rd sim had a higher SCORE than the 2nd sim. It wasn't much of a difference (60 cents), but why should leaving out a 5 unit bet until a loss produce a higher SCORE? The rule of thumb is the more camo you use, the lower your SCORE.
Also, for the 3rd betting strategy, suppose you split a pair at the beginning of the shoe and win one hand and lose the other hand. Would the software put out another 5 unit wager for the subsequent round or just bet according to the count?
MJ
> MJ,
> Suppose I want to sim a betting strategy that
> requires a 1 to 25 spread, where the counter wagers 5
> units for the first and only first round of every shoe
> and then drops down to 1 unit for subsequent rounds
> until the counts warrants increasing the bet. Can the
> software handle this?
> I ran three 400-million-round sims of a 6D, S17, DA2,
> DAS, 75% penetration game for a lone HiLo counter
> spreading 1:25 according to the following bet schedule
> (with units in nickels):
> TC Bet
> +1 4
> +2 8
> +3 16
> +4 25
> .
> In the first sim, the player bet strictly with the
> count. He had a Win Rate of $21.98, an IBA of 1.219%
> with a S.E. of 0.04, a per-hand Std. Dev. of 8.24, a
> SCORE of 28.47, and an N0 of 35,125. Here, the player
> NEVER bet 5 units.
> In the second sim, the player bet strictly with the
> count, except that he bet 5 units on the first hand
> only of each shoe. He had a Win Rate of $21.45, an
> IBA of 1.160% with a S.E. of 0.04, a per-hand Std.
> Dev. of 8.28, a SCORE of 26.86, and an N0 of 37,225.
> In this sim, the player played 9,293,299 shoes and bet
> 5 units 9,552,011 times, the extras due to splits
> and/or double downs.
> To run this sim, on the Betting Strategy page, I
> checked the "Reset after shuffle" box and
> set the Shuffle Bet: spinner to 5.
> What about a betting strategy that is the same as
> the one above, but the 5 unit bet off the top of the
> shoe continues until the counter loses a round?
> In the third sim, the player bet strictly with the
> count, except that he bet 5 units at the start of each
> shoe, and continued betting 5 units per round until he
> lost a round. After his first loss of the shoe, he bet
> strictly with the count, so if, for example, when he
> lost the count was +4, on the next round he'd bet 25.
> He had a Win Rate of $21.84, an IBA of 1.158% with a
> S.E. of 0.04, a per-hand Std. Dev. of 8.32, a SCORE of
> 27.58, and an N0 of 36,255. In this sim, the player
> played 9,293,479 shoes and bet 5 units 16,949,476
> times.
> To run this sim, on the Betting Strategy page, I
> checked the "Reset after shuffle" box and
> set the Shuffle Bet: spinner to 5. Then on the
> Advanced page, every row should read 1, 4, 8, 16, 25
> except for the "Won" row for the
> "5" bet, which should read 5, 5, 5, 5, 5.
> Note that this method will not work if a 5-unit bet is
> also part of the regular bet schedule. For example, if
> the bet schedule calls for a 5-unit bet at a TC of +1,
> with this method the player will be "stuck"
> on 5 units (until a loss) every time the count gets to
> +1.
> Hope this helps!
> Dog Hand
MJ,
I am surprised that the 3rd sim had a higher SCORE than the 2nd sim. It wasn't much of a difference (60 cents), but why should leaving out a 5 unit bet until a loss produce a higher SCORE? The rule of thumb is the more camo you use, the lower your SCORE.
Well, in fact these aren't really SCOREs, since the bet schedule is far from optimal. As we all know from having read and memorized BJA3, the SCORE is defined only for optimal betting. We'd really have to use CVCX (for example) to compute the optimal betting before we could really call these SCOREs. Thus, these are actually c-SCOREs.
However, to answer your question, these c-SCOREs are calculated as follows:
c-SCORE = {100*Win Rate (in units/hr)/ Std. Dev. (in units/hr)}^2
Since I gave the win rates is $/hr and the Std. Dev. in units/hand, we have to convert them. Thus, for Sim 3, for example, the WR = ($21.84/hr)/($5/unit) = 4.368 units/hr. The Std. Dev. = 8.32 units/hand * sqrt(100) hands/hr = 83.20 units/hr. So the c-SCORE is
c-SCORE = (100*4.368/83.20)^2 = 27.5625
Now, if you compare Sims 2 and 3, you'll see that Sim 3 has a higher Std. Dev. (of course), but it also has a higher Win Rate. Doing the calculations will show that the c-SCORE for Sim 3 is slightly higher than that for Sim 2.
Also, for the 3rd betting strategy, suppose you split a pair at the beginning of the shoe and win one hand and lose the other hand. Would the software put out another 5 unit wager for the subsequent round or just bet according to the count?
That's a trickier question. On the Betting Strategy Definition page is a button labeled Last Hand. I didn't alter the defaults, so mine says "Last Hand Status" for Splits, Doubles, and Surrenders. For Ties, it says "Lost" for the column labeled "Count < Pivot" and "Won" for "Count >=Pivot". Since I used HiLo, the Pivot is a TC of 0. Thus, on a single-hand push, if the TC >=0 the software treats it like a Win and uses the "Won" column on the Advanced table to determine the next bet, while if the TC< 0 the software treats it like a Loss to determine the subsequent wager.
However, I'm not exactly certain what the "Last Hand Status" option does. My guess is that the software treats the result as a Win if you end up with more than you started with, a Loss if you end up with less, and a Tie if you end up even.
If my guess is correct, then in the situation you describe, I'd say the software would consider the result a Tie (assuming you either doubled down on both hands or on neither hand, since in either case you'd end up with the same amount of money). Then the software would consider the new TC: if it's non-negative, the result would be treated as a "Win" and so you'd continue to bet 5 units; while if it's negative, the subsequent bet would depend on the "Loss" row on the Advanced table and, therefore, you'd NOT bet 5 units again that shoe.
Perhaps Norm can chime in here?
Dog Hand
If you win one hand and lose another, the software takes this as a tie. Ties are handled according to the setting in the Last Hand Status table. You can set ties to be treated as wins, losses or keep the same bet. Settings can be different for below and equal to or above pivot.
From the manual:
Last Hand Activity Table
This table is used to define the Last Hand Status used in the second column of the Bet Table. It is useful when trying to camouflage your bet size. There are two columns if you are not counting and three columns if you are counting. The first column lists four possible last hand actions (split, double, surrender, tie). The remaining columns define the Last Hand Status to be forced as follows:
? Won - This will force the Last Hand Status to Won. This means that the Won rows in the Bet Table will be used in bet size determination.
? Lost - This will force the Last Hand Status to Lost. This means that the Lost rows in the Bet Table will be used in bet size determination.
? Last Bet - This will force the next bet to be the same as the last bet. The Bet Table will not be used for this condition. For example, Last Bet in the Tie row will force the bet to remain the same after a push.
? Last Hand Status - This is a null action. The actual previous hand's status is used.
Thanks Norm. What about if you split and DD on the split, win, but lose the other hand. Does the software consider this a win or tie?
> Thanks Norm. What about if you split and DD on the
> split, win, but lose the other hand. Does the software
> consider this a win or tie?
I don't know how the software is formulated, but it seems to me that, for the purposes of your question, if you have more money than you started with, once the round is over, you have won. If you have less, you have lost. And, if you have the same, you have tied.
Is it possible to disagree with that? Numbers of winning or losing hands should have nothing to do with it.
Don
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