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Scott Delekta: Winning Strategy for Dragon Bonus Baccarat Part II
Hi everyone. I have finished my simulations for the easier Red Dragon Master Count which can be used to beat Shuffle Master's Dragon Bonus side bet for baccarat. To recap:
The Dragon Bonus Bet is a side bet for the table game of baccarat. The paytable is shown below:
Win by 9 points (non-natural) 30 to 1
Win by 8 points (non-natural) 10 to 1
Win by 7 points (non-natural) 6 to 1
Win by 6 points (non-natural) 4 to 1
Win by 5 points (non-natural) 2 to 1
Win by 4 points (non-natural) 1 to 1
Natural winner 1 to 1
Natural tie Push
All other Loss
(8 Deck shoe)
(Note the previous post had these
in the wrong order).
House Edge Std Deviation
Player 2.65% 2.47
Banker 9.37% 2.30
Red Dragon Master Count
Card Rank Count Value
Ace +2
2 +3
3 +3
4 +2
5 +1
Red 6 +1
7 -2
8 -2
9 -2
Red 10,J,Q,K -1
The simulation model used an 8 deck shoe and the shuffle point was 401/416. This is common penetration for live baccarat (14-16 cards cut position) since the primary game cannot be beaten with card counting. The Running Count (RC) begins at 0.
Here are the simulation results:
Each data point (200 million - 1.8 billion shoes simmed)
Dragon Player Bet (99% confidence level E =0.02%)
RC % occurence payout %
>=98 1.62 100.20
>=100 1.57 100.54
>=102 1.51 100.96
>=104 1.41 101.40
>=106 1.29 101.86
>=108 1.15 102.32
>=110 0.99 102.80
>=112 0.81 103.15
>=114 0.65 103.52
>=116 0.50 103.77
>=118 0.37 103.85
>=120 0.75 103.88
Dragon Bank Bet (99% confidence level E =0.02%)
RC % occurence payout %
>=116 0.50 100.24
>=118 0.37 100.68
>=120 0.75 100.95
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