Hi everyone. I have finished my simulations for the easier Red Dragon Master Count which can be used to beat Shuffle Master's Dragon Bonus side bet for baccarat. To recap:

The Dragon Bonus Bet is a side bet for the table game of baccarat. The paytable is shown below:

Win by 9 points (non-natural) 30 to 1
Win by 8 points (non-natural) 10 to 1
Win by 7 points (non-natural) 6 to 1
Win by 6 points (non-natural) 4 to 1
Win by 5 points (non-natural) 2 to 1
Win by 4 points (non-natural) 1 to 1
Natural winner 1 to 1
Natural tie Push
All other Loss

(8 Deck shoe)

(Note the previous post had these
in the wrong order).
House Edge Std Deviation
Player 2.65% 2.47
Banker 9.37% 2.30

Red Dragon Master Count

Card Rank Count Value

Ace +2

2 +3

3 +3

4 +2

5 +1

Red 6 +1

7 -2

8 -2

9 -2

Red 10,J,Q,K -1

The simulation model used an 8 deck shoe and the shuffle point was 401/416. This is common penetration for live baccarat (14-16 cards cut position) since the primary game cannot be beaten with card counting. The Running Count (RC) begins at 0.

Here are the simulation results:
Each data point (200 million - 1.8 billion shoes simmed)

Dragon Player Bet (99% confidence level E =0.02%)

RC % occurence payout %

>=98 1.62 100.20

>=100 1.57 100.54

>=102 1.51 100.96

>=104 1.41 101.40

>=106 1.29 101.86

>=108 1.15 102.32

>=110 0.99 102.80

>=112 0.81 103.15

>=114 0.65 103.52

>=116 0.50 103.77

>=118 0.37 103.85

>=120 0.75 103.88

Dragon Bank Bet (99% confidence level E =0.02%)

RC % occurence payout %

>=116 0.50 100.24

>=118 0.37 100.68

>=120 0.75 100.95