Norm Wattenberger: Ploppy strategy

[Norm Wattenberger]

I'm trying to come up with a guess at the most common strategy used by Blackjack players. Thus far I have:

Hit against 2-6 with <12
Hit against 7-A with <17
Split Aces & Eights only (maybe not against Ten or Ace)
Insure BJ only
Always double 11
Double 10 against 2-9
No soft doubles
No resplits
No Surrenders

I'd be interested in other's observations.

[Norm Wattenberger]

Forgot soft hits. I would guess hit < soft 17.

> I'm trying to come up with a guess at the
> most common strategy used by Blackjack
> players. Thus far I have:

> Hit against 2-6 with Hit against 7-A with
> Split Aces & Eights only (maybe not
> against Ten or Ace)
> Insure BJ only
> Always double 11
> Double 10 against 2-9
> No soft doubles
> No resplits
> No Surrenders

> I'd be interested in other's observations.

[Sharmon]

I am very comfortable splitting 9's against everything except 10 and A's (I don't like splitting against 7 up but I do cause it's basic strategy) , I get this pretty frequently .

> I'm trying to come up with a guess at the
> most common strategy used by Blackjack
> players. Thus far I have:

> Hit against 2-6 with Hit against 7-A with
> Split Aces & Eights only (maybe not
> against Ten or Ace)
> Insure BJ only
> Always double 11
> Double 10 against 2-9
> No soft doubles
> No resplits
> No Surrenders

> I'd be interested in other's observations.

[Victoria]

Norm
Strategy of many ploppys is based upon things such as the position of the moon, the birthdate of the dealer, are the cards red or blue, and the denomination of the previous four cards. Basic ploppy strategy for a shoe game states quite clearly not to hit your 12 V dealer 6, if the last two cards seen are 7-9.
Split everything if it is your birthday.
Double down on 8 vs dealer 2, Mon-Thursday

Seriously, I just watched a guy split 5's against a 9 and bust on both. Of course he did not know the TC was +3. Same guy questioned me about how my surrendering 16 would kill the flow.

Oh yes, no matter what do not change the flow unless you are loosing, in that case you must change the flow.

I am sure a phone book size book can be written about the things we see done, perhaps two books with some help from the pit.

Oh please do not forget the most important thing to do to get a blackjack. After getting an A on your first card, you MUST point at it as the dealer gives you your second card. I understand that this works slightly more than 30% of the time.

> I'm trying to come up with a guess at the
> most common strategy used by Blackjack
> players. Thus far I have:

> Hit against 2-6 with Hit against 7-A with
> Split Aces & Eights only (maybe not
> against Ten or Ace)
> Insure BJ only
> Always double 11
> Double 10 against 2-9
> No soft doubles
> No resplits
> No Surrenders

> I'd be interested in other's observations.

[Don Schlesinger]

> I'm trying to come up with a guess at the
> most common strategy used by Blackjack
> players. Thus far I have:

> Hit against 2-6 with <12
You get lots of dirty looks for hitting 12 even v. 3. I think people stand more than you think with 12 vs. all small cards.

> Hit against 7-A with <17
Probably.

> Split Aces & Eights only (maybe not
> against Ten or Ace)

No, neophytes, if anything, split TOO much. They love the extra action.

> Insure BJ only

Yes.

> Always double 11

Maybe.

> Double 10 against 2-9

Maybe, but sometimes people are gunshy vs. the higher upcards.

> No soft doubles
As with splits, I think they double MORE than they should, rather than less. Exception is A,7, because as soon as the obnoxious dealer says, "8 or 18," they hear the "18" part, and stand.

> No resplits
Don't agree.

> No Surrenders
Not so sure. Probably, on average, yes, but once players are aware that surrender is offered, they probably surrender MORE than they should. That's why casinos offer the rule in the first place.

> I'd be interested in other's [others'] observations.

See above!

Don

[Norm Wattenberger]

> You get lots of dirty looks for hitting 12
> even v. 3. I think people stand more than
> you think with 12 vs. all small cards.

Yes, I was saying no hit even 12v2. It seems to me people hit less now than they did years ago.

> No, neophytes, if anything, split TOO much.
> They love the extra action.

Come to think of it, I've seen players that think they have to split. How about all 8's and Aces; 2's, 3's, 6's, 7's and 9's against 2-7. Or maybe against 2-6.

> Double 10 against 2-9
> Maybe, but sometimes people are gunshy vs.
> the higher upcards.

I'll say Double 11 against 2-9 and 10 against 2-8.

> As with splits, I think they double MORE
> than they should, rather than less.
> Exception is A,7, because as soon as the
> obnoxious dealer says, "8 or 18,"
> they hear the "18" part, and
> stand.

Interested in more feedback on this. I've seen lots of surprised faces at soft doubling. Like 'why double a 14 - you'll just draw a ten and still have 14.' But, I don't know as I really don't watch other players much at all.

> No resplits
> Don't agree.

I'll make it one resplit.

> Not so sure. Probably, on average, yes, but
> once players are aware that surrender is
> offered, they probably surrender MORE than
> they should. That's why casinos offer the
> rule in the first place.

Interested in more input here also. I haven't noticed many surrenders.

[Dog Hand]

Norm,

Most of the "ploppier" ploppies (by which I mean those who do not have a firm grasp of BS) I have seen are reluctant to hit 15's or 16's, even against high upcards. I would suggest the rule be

Hit against 7-A with < 15

What do the rest of you think?

Dog Hand

P.S. For you HTML gurus in the audience, how do I get a < symbol to appear in the Subject line?

[Sharmon]

> Norm,

> Most of the "ploppier" ploppies
> (by which I mean those who do not have a
> firm grasp of BS) I have seen are reluctant
> to hit 15's or 16's, even against high
> upcards. I would suggest the rule be

> Hit against 7-A with What do the rest of
> you think?

> Dog Hand

> P.S. For you HTML gurus in the audience, how
> do I get a

"Apersand + pound + 60"

[Magician]

You need to type &lt;.

[Magician]

What about splitting tens every now and again?

[Parker]

Some superstitions cause the ploppies to play their hands different than they would otherwise.

A few examples:

"The dealer is more likely to make a hand if no one at the table takes a card." So, someone will hit a stiff hand against a weak dealer upcard.

"A face follows an ace." So, the same person will stand on his stiff against a strong dealer upcard if the previous card drawn was an ace.

Our clueless player may also be reluctant to split or double down against a weak upcard for fear of "taking the dealer's bust card."

[Norm Wattenberger]

[Victoria]

Had a great little run last night on a table that had the all time mystery ploppy at third base. He kept the shoe guessing, the stars must have aligned or something because things just worked out.
Three times he stayed with a total of 5 or 6, against a dealer 4-6, and each time the dealer busted. Did he know that twice we were in a +5 situation and I had my big bet out there with a stiff and needed that bust?
He hit hard 17 against a dealer 5, pulled a 4, and made my 18 a winner and it would have lost if the dealer got that 4.
He played like a man with hole card and next card knowledge except many of his moves did not work, but when I had a big bet out there they always seemed to work.
He would hit 15 against a dealer bust card, but would rarely hit 12.
His bets had nothing to do with the count. His bets were determined by grabbing 15 or so green chips and seeing if they divided equally over his two spots. If they divided equally he would be the $200 in each spot, if they did not, he would be only $25 per spot. Probably had something to do with that star alignment.
Pit type who was watching this guy, kept rolling his eyes, looking to the sky and was in utter amazement. There were three of them watching him at one point, trying to figure out something, but I felt safe increasing my spread and don't think I ever appeared on their radar.
This guy won, which goes to say absolutely anything can happen in the short run and he validated his strategy.
A video of this guy should be shown to all BS players who constantly complain about players who ruin the hand. They did not complain about him because he was pretty good at tricking the shoe and helping them win. It lasted for about an hour, he began to loose a bunch back so he quit.

> Some superstitions cause the ploppies to
> play their hands different than they would
> otherwise.

> A few examples:

> "The dealer is more likely to make a
> hand if no one at the table takes a
> card." So, someone will hit a stiff
> hand against a weak dealer upcard.

> "A face follows an ace." So, the
> same person will stand on his stiff against
> a strong dealer upcard if the previous card
> drawn was an ace.

> Our clueless player may also be reluctant to
> split or double down against a weak upcard
> for fear of "taking the dealer's bust
> card."