Shaggy18vw: Optimal Cover Betting (Parlay)

[Shaggy18vw]

I have an idea that may be a practical addition to a sim package (if not already included). It involves optimal betting. Currently in CVCX we are able to sim optimal bets at a given TC based on Kelly methods (I believe this is the case, let me know if it is otherwise.)

My idea is to simulate an optimal parlay bet ramp. The user would input his min bet and max bet and based on standard units develop a ramp leading to the highest win rate. This seems different to me than simply applying the proper Kelly bet.

Example: Single Deck
Let's assume a proper Kelly bet at 0 is $15, $25 at +1, and $40 at +2. Due to the volatility of single deck, the count could easily jump from 0 to +2 or higher without the player being able to follow. It may be worth it for the player to bet $20 at 0 so he can parlay to $40 if the count justifies. This would cause the zero to be overbet based of Kelly, but it may ultimately prove to give the player a higher win rate with similar risk.

This feature could be added to CVData similar to the index feature.

Just a thought,
Shaggy

[Norm Wattenberger]

CVData can certainly handle sims of this type. But, unlike CVCX, CVData will not calculate optimal bets. You would need to run several sims trying different bets. Unfortunately, optimal betting theory doesn't work with cover play. Since CVCX calculates optimal betting ramps, it cannot correctly handle cover play. The next release will have a feature called 'rational betting' that attempts to create more reasonable betting amounts and reduces jumps. But, it isn't real cover play. I've given a lot of thought to optimal betting with cover in CVCX and would like to address that in the future. I would be very interested in anyone's thoughts on this. The only methods I can think of require capturing vast amounts of data.

Serious Blackjack Software

[AsZehn]

> I have an idea that may be a practical
> addition to a sim package (if not already
> included). It involves optimal betting.
> Currently in CVCX we are able to sim optimal
> bets at a given TC based on Kelly methods (I
> believe this is the case, let me know if it
> is otherwise.)

> My idea is to simulate an optimal parlay bet
> ramp. The user would input his min bet and
> max bet and based on standard units develop
> a ramp leading to the highest win rate. This
> seems different to me than simply applying
> the proper Kelly bet.

> Example: Single Deck
> Let's assume a proper Kelly bet at 0 is $15,
> $25 at +1, and $40 at +2. Due to the
> volatility of single deck, the count could
> easily jump from 0 to +2 or higher without
> the player being able to follow. It may be
> worth it for the player to bet $20 at 0 so
> he can parlay to $40 if the count justifies.
> This would cause the zero to be overbet
> based of Kelly, but it may ultimately prove
> to give the player a higher win rate with
> similar risk.

> This feature could be added to CVData
> similar to the index feature.

> Just a thought,
> Shaggy

You can input any bet you want in the custom bets column of CVCX. This will immediately allow you to compare results of departure from optimal betting.

AZ

[Shaggy18vw]

The act of inputting is what I want to avoid. I realize that I can manually change the bets until I reach an optimal ramp leading to the greatest win rate with my specified risk. But computers are so much better at doing repetitive manual work.

[AsZehn]

> The act of inputting is what I want to
> avoid. I realize that I can manually change
> the bets until I reach an optimal ramp
> leading to the greatest win rate with my
> specified risk. But computers are so much
> better at doing repetitive manual work.

I agree. I enter the ROR I am comfortable with and the bet spread. After calculating optimal bets, I then adjust from optimal if I am not comfortable with the jump.