casino beginner: BJ vs. Roulette

[casino beginner]

Lets say, I play BJ with a ROI of 1%, that means fromm 100 CC, 1 will go broke.

Lets say, i play roulette and start playing on RED , after BLACK was apearing at a certain table 15 times in a row. Than i start with 5 dollars and double after a loss.
My BR allows me to do it 11 times. So i go broke, when BLACK continues to an event of 26 times and more in a row.
What you think, is the chance of this?

26 times in a row happens every 100years. So the ROR is also very small?

Please commends.

[Norm Wattenberger]

> Lets say, I play BJ with a ROI of 1%, that means fromm
> 100 CC, 1 will go broke.

I assume you mean risk of ruin, not return on investment.

> Lets say, i play roulette and start playing on RED ,
> after BLACK was apearing at a certain table 15 times
> in a row. Than i start with 5 dollars and double after
> a loss.
> My BR allows me to do it 11 times. So i go broke, when
> BLACK continues to an event of 26 times and more in a
> row.
> What you think, is the chance of this?

> 26 times in a row happens every 100years. So the ROR
> is also very small?

I know this is difficult to understand - but it is 11 times in a row, not 26. The fact that it happened 15 times before has no effect on the next 11.

[Sonny]

> 26 times in a row happens every 100years. So the ROR
> is also very small?

No, your ROR is not small at all. You are still playing with a negative expectation so your long term ROR is 100%. It can't get any bigger than that! If you play long enough you will eventually go broke with absolute certainty. If you decide to limit the number of spins you play then you might be able to have a smaller chance of going completely broke, but you would still expect to lose money, just not necessarily all of it.

-Sonny-

[Parker]

> 26 times in a row happens every 100years. So the ROR
> is also very small?

No, it happens just often enough to make your ROR 100% if you keep playing long enough.

If progression schemes such as this actually worked, do you think that the casinos would provide those convenient electronic tote boards on each roulette wheel, tracking the results of the last 20 or so spins?

[SOTSOG]

> 26 times in a row happens every 100years. So the ROR
> is also very small?

They must spin the wheel very very slowly if 26 in a row only happens every 100 years.

And it doesn't matter, it is a negative expectation game. 25 in a row, 24 in a row, 23 in a row, etc. will happen often enough that you are almost certain to be a loser (maybe not completely broke, but behind) when you do decide to quit.

[Laurance Scott]

Playing red/black is a negative expectation game, and you shouldn't be making this bet under any circumstances (unless it is to impress a hot babe, but that's another subject).

However, IF you are going to play a Roulette mechanical system, this is not a bad idea. However, I would encourage you to wait for 20 blacks in a row rather than 11 blacks in a row.

During the months that you will be walking through the casinos looking for reader boards with all blacks showing, you will get a lot of exercise, and you will have no negative effect on your bankroll. All-in-all, not a bad outcome.