jimmtech: Counting vs. trends

[jimmtech]

I have been playing BJ for 1 year.

I bought Singer's course (simple hi-lo), and studied it, but practicing on CVBJ and EZ Blackjack, it seemed that a high count always meant just losing bigger bets!

So I learned a positive progression system and won $2000 winning 10 out of 13 sessions at $5 and $10 betting but got discouraged when I lost the next (7) $200 sessions in a row.

I studied several positive/ negative combination progression systems and several negative ones, and then devised my own system: flat betting until one of the following occurs:

1) lose 4 bets in a row
2) bust 2 hands in a row
3) dealer gets 21 by multiple cards or BJ

then I would bet 3x flat on the next bet and if that didn't win I would bet 6x flat.

I found that I had approximately a 75% chance of winning one of the next 2 hands following 1 of the above instances.

Over 40+ sessions in many different casinos, I was able to work up to over $6000 - playing $200 sessions for $5-$15-$30 $400 for $10-$30-$60 and $1000 for $25-$75-$150. I won over 75% of the time. Then I got spooked when I lost 7 sessions in a row!

Was this beginner's luck?? I really feel like there MUST be something to this for me to have won so much money over so many sessions!

I went back to studying counting, and I practiced on EZ BJ - I played 16,000 hands to turn $2000 into $10,000 with a bet retention of 102%. (2% advantage). (Playing a 6D 80% pen, $5-$40 and $10-$80, shuffling when count dropped down to minus 6)

HOWEVER I went 4000 hands with no gain!! It went up and down some $800. When I reached $10,000, I promptly lost $4000, and am working back up. I have been following strict session/min/max. guidelines based on max. bet at 2% of bankroll.

1) What are reasonable expectation for bankroll swings???

You've got to have balls of steel to play for 40 hours with no profit, and still know you'll earn that 2% advantage eventually.

2) Are there any professional gamblers who consistenly win playing a trend or progression system without counting?

[Parker]

> I have been playing BJ for 1 year.

> I bought Singer's course (simple hi-lo), and studied
> it, but practicing on CVBJ and EZ Blackjack, it seemed
> that a high count always meant just losing bigger
> bets!

> So I learned a positive progression system and won
> $2000 winning 10 out of 13 sessions at $5 and $10
> betting but got discouraged when I lost the next (7)
> $200 sessions in a row.

> I studied several positive/ negative combination
> progression systems and several negative ones, and
> then devised my own system: flat betting until one of
> the following occurs:

> 1) lose 4 bets in a row
> 2) bust 2 hands in a row
> 3) dealer gets 21 by multiple cards or BJ

> then I would bet 3x flat on the next bet and if that
> didn't win I would bet 6x flat.

> I found that I had approximately a 75% chance of
> winning one of the next 2 hands following 1 of the
> above instances.

> Over 40+ sessions in many different casinos, I was
> able to work up to over $6000 - playing $200 sessions
> for $5-$15-$30 $400 for $10-$30-$60 and $1000 for
> $25-$75-$150. I won over 75% of the time. Then I got
> spooked when I lost 7 sessions in a row!

> Was this beginner's luck?? I really feel like there
> MUST be something to this for me to have won so much
> money over so many sessions!

Call it luck, variance, or anything you want. This is actually an extremely short number of sessions. Anything could have happened.

> I went back to studying counting, and I practiced on
> EZ BJ - I played 16,000 hands to turn $2000 into
> $10,000 with a bet retention of 102%. (2% advantage).
> (Playing a 6D 80% pen, $5-$40 and $10-$80, shuffling
> when count dropped down to minus 6)

> HOWEVER I went 4000 hands with no gain!! It went up
> and down some $800. When I reached $10,000, I promptly
> lost $4000, and am working back up. I have been
> following strict session/min/max. guidelines based on
> max. bet at 2% of bankroll.

> 1) What are reasonable expectation for bankroll
> swings???

If you are playing a winning game, you will have big swings in both directions. It's the nature of the beast.

> You've got to have balls of steel to play for 40 hours
> with no profit, and still know you'll earn that 2%
> advantage eventually.

Yep. If it was easy everyone would be doing it.

> 2) Are there any professional gamblers who consistenly
> win playing a trend or progression system without
> counting?

There are types of advantage play other than counting. Betting progressions are not among them. A betting progression will not turn a negative expectation game into a positive one. Play long enough and you will lose all your money. Period. End of discussion.

Please take a few moments to read "Parker's Policies" (link at left). We discuss mathematically sound methods of gaining an advantage here.

[koolipto]

> 1) What are reasonable expectation for bankroll
> swings???

You may want to consider buying a software package called BJRM. It contains a number of simulations of different counting systems which can be applied to a variety of blackjack games (#of decks, rules etc). Aside from helping you understand your edge, it will provide an optimal bet ramp.

However, it also has a "random walk" module which can give you hour by hour or session by session typical results graphically displayed in bar graphs. You can simply press on the Calc button repeatedly to get a feeling of the mental damage or elation this game can cause over long stretches of time.

I'm not trying to push products. But you should consider buying Blackjack Attack. It is an extremely valuable book at many levels. One of these is steeling you towards discipline in both your play and your thinking.

[ToAnyOne]

[superdupont]