Designated Driver: Reducing ROR while maintaining EV

[Designated Driver]

My biggest concern is still ROR. Not that I am afraid of going broke after putting the money out, but that I don't have enough to play comfortably in the first place.

I think I will have about $500 to play with, and given my current understanding I wonder if that is enough even for the lowest limit $5 tables, unless I can find a good $2 table.

What I mean is that I have read that you should never bet more than 1%(1/100th)(Stanford Wong says 0.66%, 1/150th) of your bankroll on a single hand, so in my case I should never bet more than $5($500/100) which is already my minimum, unit bet. But you also need to spread in order to win right, at least 1-12, ideally, in shoe games.

Is there anyway I can get around this?

Desi. D.

[Sonny]

> My biggest concern is still ROR. Not that I am afraid
> of going broke after putting the money out, but that I
> don't have enough to play comfortably in the first
> place.

Then don't play. If you do not feel like you have enough money to play, don't.

> I think I will have about $500 to play with, and given
> my current understanding I wonder if that is enough
> even for the lowest limit $5 tables, unless I can find
> a good $2 table.

A 100 unit bankroll is very small, but you can still play with it. Just understand that there is a very large chance that you will lose it all and have to start over from scratch.

Many players use a replenishable bankroll. They may only have 100-200 units, but if they lose some of it on a trip then they just replace it with money from their job. Your trip ROR will be much smaller than your lifetime ROR, so as long as you can replace some of the losses you can start playing whenever you want. That is one of the benefits of being a recreational player.

> What I mean is that I have read that you should never
> bet more than 1%(1/100th)(Stanford Wong says 0.66%,
> 1/150th) of your bankroll on a single hand, so in my
> case I should never bet more than $5($500/100) which
> is already my minimum, unit bet. But you also need to
> spread in order to win right, at least 1-12, ideally,
> in shoe games.
>
> Is there anyway I can get around this?

There are only two ways around it (that I know of): Either save up your money until you are comfortable with the size of your bankroll, or make short playing trips while adding to your bankroll whenever possible.

I'm sure that there are other solutions and I look forward to hearing other player's ideas.

-Sonny-

[jblaze]

> Then don't play. If you do not feel like you have
> enough money to play, don't.

> A 100 unit bankroll is very small, but you can still
> play with it. Just understand that there is a very
> large chance that you will lose it all and have to
> start over from scratch.

> Many players use a replenishable bankroll. They may
> only have 100-200 units, but if they lose some of it
> on a trip then they just replace it with money from
> their job. Your trip ROR will be much smaller than
> your lifetime ROR, so as long as you can replace some
> of the losses you can start playing whenever you want.
> That is one of the benefits of being a recreational
> player.

> There are only two ways around it (that I know of):
> Either save up your money until you are comfortable
> with the size of your bankroll, or make short playing
> trips while adding to your bankroll whenever possible.

> I'm sure that there are other solutions and I look
> forward to hearing other player's ideas.

> -Sonny-

$500 wont do too much, you could probably backcount a $10 table with two grand though. get your friends to believe in you, have them invest, take a cut

[Trapper]

For what its worth (and its not worth much) this is what I would do.
Play only the single decks downtown. Don't play the single deck 3:2 or Super Fun 21 (no fun at all). Spread 3 to 1. Wong out in very bad counts. You don't have enough money to beat double deck. Your two level count system is perfect for single deck though.

You might be better off sticking to 25 cent FPDW video poker games. More variance but you can bet less per hand. Your risk will not be negligible for either game but you will get some valuable experience. With a little positive variance, you might make minimum wage. A little negative variance .... and you can stand outside the Mirage and watch the volcano go off or hustle comped drinks while you slowly feed the nickel slots.

Some of the more experienced players may have better advice for you but since you are going to Vegas anyway why not treat it as a learning opportunity. $500 would be cheap for a blackjack seminar. Good luck.

[suicyco maniac]

> Some of the more experienced players may have better
> advice for you

I would say don't play at all til you have more cash and I would also say don't listen to this bit of advice from Trapper

"Don't play the single deck 3:2"

I sure hope that is a typo.

[Trapper]

[Designated Driver]

> For what its worth (and its not worth much) this is
> what I would do.

> Play only the single decks downtown. Don't play the
> single deck 3:2 or Super Fun 21 (no fun at all).
> Spread 3 to 1. Wong out in very bad counts. You don't
> have enough money to beat double deck. Your two level
> count system is perfect for single deck though.

No shoes?

I am afraid of SD as the cards are dealt face down making it difficult to count if not played head on vs. the dealer, probably not too likely for SD, particularly with low limits.

Not to mention that I have yet to master my "perfect" system for SD games where I literally keep track of all of the cards. I believe a disciplined person could actually do it, using my system.

This is the foundation idea for my book. Unfortuatly I will have no credibility as I have never played. However it is not "get rich quick" system book as it will be based on sound theory and mathematics.

I want my book to be revolutionary, not just another book reciting BS and Hi-Lo, EV, SD and ROR.

Somebody needs to shake things up a bit, and hopefully my bombshell of a book(if I can ever write it) will be able to do that.

(Sorry to jump ahead to your concluding words, but this is something I would like to talk to some pros about.)

BTW...I have always wondered how to count a face down game where you cannot see all the cards. I have heard of counting by inference, but I want to be "sure and precise" making decisions based upon known and reliable information.

> You might be better off sticking to 25 cent FPDW video
> poker games. More variance but you can bet less per
> hand. Your risk will not be negligible for either game
> but you will get some valuable experience. With a
> little positive variance, you might make minimum wage.
> A little negative variance .... and you can stand
> outside the Mirage and watch the volcano go off or
> hustle comped drinks while you slowly feed the nickel
> slots.

I was hoping to catch something big in VP to increase my BR for blackjack play.

> Some of the more experienced players may have better
> advice for you but since you are going to Vegas anyway
> why not treat it as a learning opportunity. $500 would
> be cheap for a blackjack seminar. Good luck.

I have been "learning" for over three years now, and did not spend all that time, effort, and money(over $500) just to learn how to lose gracefully.

Sorry, I was just a bit frustrated about everybody telling me to expect to lose a little.

And I know this isn't what you said, but it is late, I am tired and didn't read you right the first time. :-)

Anyway, your advice sounds pretty reasonable. So thanks,
Desi. D.

[Dog Hand]

Designated Driver,

You wrote:
BTW...I have always wondered how to count a face down game where you cannot see all the cards. I have heard of counting by inference, but I want to be "sure and precise" making decisions based upon known and reliable information.

I rarely play face-up games, so almost all of my counting is done in handheld games. The key is to be systematic in the way you count the cards. I first count the dealer's upcard (in pitch, this is always her first card), then I pick up my two cards and count them. Next, I glance surreptitiously (or, heck, sometimes I gape openly) at the cards held by the player(s) to my right. True, sometimes you cannot see them all, but you just have to remember which ones you've already counted. Then I count all the exposed cards as I see them: BJs, splits, double downs (though the DD card itself is almost always dealt face-down), hits, and finally busts. When my turn arrives, if I have a close decision to make (for example, if the RC is +1 and I have 16 vs. 10), then I try to see the cards held by the player(s) to my left. If my decision is not close, I don't bother trying to see their cards, since I know I'll see them after the dealer completes her hand and before she settles all the bets. Next, I watch the dealer complete her hand, counting her hole card and her hits cards as they appear. Finally, I count all the hidden cards that I haven't seen yet as the dealer settles all the players' hands.

It sounds complicated, but believe me, it becomes second nature very quickly.

Now some explanantions!

The reason why I want to know the hole cards for the player(s) to my right is that I will then not have to wait to see them before calculating my bet for the next round. Thus, as soon as the dealer settles my bet, I can place my bet for the next round without having to wait for her to settle the remaining bets to my right. One warning, though: watch out for lefthanded dealers! Not that I have anything against southpaws... the warning is because lefties often settle the bets starting at first base and proceeding to third, which is exactly opposite the normal procedure. If you're playing against a lefty who settles "backwards", then you have to know the hole cards for the player(s) to your RIGHT if you want to place your next-round bet as soon as the dealer settles your current-round bet.

The only times you'll see another player's hand completely exposed are as follows:

1. Dealer BJ: in this case, you'll have to employ the same quick scanning you use for face-up games, because you have to see all the other players' cards more or less simultaneously.

2. The player has a BJ. Be sure to cheer for him! ;-)

3. The player busts: once again, be sure to glance the hole cards quickly, as some dealers have a bad habit of not spreading the cards before scooping them into the discards.

4. The player splits non-aces, and does not double down after the split.

5. The player splits aces, and the casino allows RSA (resplits of aces): here you'll see all the cards. If no RSA, then usually the single hit cards on each ace are dealt face-down.

6. The player doubles down and requests to see the DD card. Some casinos allow the dealer to deal the DD card face-up in these cases.

In all other cases, all of the other players' hands will contain face-down cards (their hole cards, DD cards, hits on split aces if no RSA), so get in the habit of looking for the ones you haven't already glimpsed (and hence counted) so you can quickly calculate your next-round bet.

A few final thoughts: if your game uses a cut card, you'll often know during a round that the dealer will shuffle after the current round. If you bust (or BJ or surrender), you can place your "off-the-top-of-the-shoe" bet immediately. Similarly, if the count is very negative, and for various reasons you don't wish to leave the table, after busting (or BJing or surrendering) you can immediately place your minimum bet for the next round. In addition, if the count is very high, after busting (or BJing or surrendering) you can place your maximum bet immediately, but in this case you'd better be certain that the cut card will not appear during the current round. If you're uncertain, wait until the dealer completes her hand. The advantage to placing your bet before you appear to see all the remaining cards is that this is the opposite of what a card counter would do... thus, it provides a little bit of camoflauge.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[Designated Driver]

It helps a great deal Dog Hand. Thank you.

Desi. D.

> Designated Driver,

> You wrote:
> BTW...I have always wondered how to count a face
> down game where you cannot see all the cards. I have
> heard of counting by inference, but I want to be
> "sure and precise" making decisions based
> upon known and reliable information. I rarely play
> face-up games, so almost all of my counting is done in
> handheld games. The key is to be systematic in the way
> you count the cards. I first count the dealer's upcard
> (in pitch, this is always her first card), then I pick
> up my two cards and count them. Next, I glance
> surreptitiously (or, heck, sometimes I gape openly) at
> the cards held by the player(s) to my right. True,
> sometimes you cannot see them all, but you just have
> to remember which ones you've already counted. Then I
> count all the exposed cards as I see them: BJs,
> splits, double downs (though the DD card itself is
> almost always dealt face-down), hits, and finally
> busts. When my turn arrives, if I have a close
> decision to make (for example, if the RC is +1 and I
> have 16 vs. 10), then I try to see the cards held by
> the player(s) to my left. If my decision is not close,
> I don't bother trying to see their cards, since I know
> I'll see them after the dealer completes her hand and
> before she settles all the bets. Next, I watch the
> dealer complete her hand, counting her hole card and
> her hits cards as they appear. Finally, I count all
> the hidden cards that I haven't seen yet as the dealer
> settles all the players' hands.

> It sounds complicated, but believe me, it becomes
> second nature very quickly.

> Now some explanantions!

> The reason why I want to know the hole cards for the
> player(s) to my right is that I will then not have to
> wait to see them before calculating my bet for the
> next round. Thus, as soon as the dealer settles my
> bet, I can place my bet for the next round without
> having to wait for her to settle the remaining bets to
> my right. One warning, though: watch out for
> lefthanded dealers! Not that I have anything against
> southpaws... the warning is because lefties often
> settle the bets starting at first base and proceeding
> to third, which is exactly opposite the normal
> procedure. If you're playing against a lefty who
> settles "backwards", then you have to know
> the hole cards for the player(s) to your RIGHT if you
> want to place your next-round bet as soon as the
> dealer settles your current-round bet.

> The only times you'll see another player's hand
> completely exposed are as follows:

> 1. Dealer BJ: in this case, you'll have to employ the
> same quick scanning you use for face-up games, because
> you have to see all the other players' cards more or
> less simultaneously.

> 2. The player has a BJ. Be sure to cheer for him! ;-)

> 3. The player busts: once again, be sure to glance the
> hole cards quickly, as some dealers have a bad habit
> of not spreading the cards before scooping them into
> the discards.

> 4. The player splits non-aces, and does not double
> down after the split.

> 5. The player splits aces, and the casino allows RSA
> (resplits of aces): here you'll see all the cards. If
> no RSA, then usually the single hit cards on each ace
> are dealt face-down.

> 6. The player doubles down and requests to see the DD
> card. Some casinos allow the dealer to deal the DD
> card face-up in these cases.

> In all other cases, all of the other players' hands
> will contain face-down cards (their hole cards, DD
> cards, hits on split aces if no RSA), so get in the
> habit of looking for the ones you haven't already
> glimpsed (and hence counted) so you can quickly
> calculate your next-round bet.

> A few final thoughts: if your game uses a cut card,
> you'll often know during a round that the dealer will
> shuffle after the current round. If you bust (or BJ or
> surrender), you can place your
> "off-the-top-of-the-shoe" bet immediately.
> Similarly, if the count is very negative, and for
> various reasons you don't wish to leave the table,
> after busting (or BJing or surrendering) you can
> immediately place your minimum bet for the next round.
> In addition, if the count is very high, after busting
> (or BJing or surrendering) you can place your maximum
> bet immediately, but in this case you'd better be
> certain that the cut card will not appear during the
> current round. If you're uncertain, wait until the
> dealer completes her hand. The advantage to placing
> your bet before you appear to see all the remaining
> cards is that this is the opposite of what a card
> counter would do... thus, it provides a little bit of
> camoflauge.

> Hope this helps!

> Dog Hand

[Wolverine]

You mentioned that lefty dealers settle backwards, which is true most of the time. However, they settle from 1st base to 3rd base in that case, and knowing the hole cards of the players to your LEFT then becomes your mission to complete the "anti-counter" move you are trying to employ.

Otherwise, a great post of how to count handheld games! I enjoyed seeing if we did it the same way.

[Dog Hand]

[Saboteur]

[Dog Hand]