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Thread: VerdugoJohn: Session Bankroll--LONG QUESTION

  1. #1
    VerdugoJohn
    Guest

    VerdugoJohn: Session Bankroll--LONG QUESTION

    Another trip to Vegas, another set of barriers overcome, but another personal test to surmount...

    Okay, redchipper here that just got back from Vegas, and have progressed from last trip about 6 months ago...can assess games for payability and avoid bad ones, can push out bets that fit 1-4/1-8/1-2x8 betting plan depending on decks in play, can keep count & vary strategy, chit chat some etc etc.

    But, the question now concerns pyschology & playing scared...like anything, some awareness of what i am in for will help overcome fear...the question, if one anticipates playing just one hour in a one deck, two deck or six deck game, how much cash does one need to have before sitting to play? One does not want to run out of money, and as long as one has enough money to cover one's spread plan, the overall positive expectation ought to work...but playing for only 1 hour is the limit for a few of reasons...one-limit exposure to casino surviellance; two-a stop loss limit; and three, its personally unsafe to carry a lot of cash.

    Blackjack i find is a game one has a few big winning hands mingled in with a few less big losers and the rest more losses than wins...the net is a slow net win with some scary drops...the trick is to have enough stake to withstand the downslide until the big win replenishes/creates a new high...

    But sitting a table, and my money is going over to the dealer, the question becomes, how much longer will I have to wait? And if my loss goes beyond a certain amount in one hour, am I doing something wrong or am i just running real cold?...that is the scare---few things sicken me more than having to buy in for more...

    So, how much is enough? If I know before sitting down what a reasonable experience would be, I could cope easier...the only thing i can find in my literature collection is in Blackjack Attack, the material on Risk of Ruin for a short trip (in this case a very short trip, 1 hour)...another reference is in the team handbook section of BJA, where 30 units is the session bank for a team player, with a backup bank of 30 units to be used to finish out a favorable shoe.

    I fired up my spreadsheet, worked through the examples in BJA for short term risk of ruin. And worked out a tendative answer, 60 units...could you folks weigh in please?

    Let say I play a 2 deck, H17,DAS game with hi-lo, 66 cards dealt before the shuffle card with two other players...i plan to spread 1 unit <1TC; 2 unit 1-2 TC; 4 unit 2-3 TC; 6 unit 3-4 TC; and 8 at TC>4...would 60 units be enough to reduce risk of ruin down to less than 5% for playing 100 hands? I think the ev, standard deviation, variance data can be obtained from Chapter 10 BJA for a game that is close to what i describe.

    Anyone know of any other material (books, articles, papers) that touch on this topic?

    It was my experience to have fluctuations that took 10 units in just one pass through the pack...all it took is a of couple of losses at 1 or 2 units, then a multi replit hand with a double down after split...then the choice--buy in or quit?...its a playable, not great, game, but what if i get a repeat of the same results?

    With the 60 unit rule, it does guide one in which games one could sit in --that is: $5 min -> $300 stake; $10 min -> $600, $25 min -> $1500.

    btw--this trip i had play experiences of going down +20 units then coming back, although those experiences were at low minimum games, thus the pychology (loss risk) was not a concern--i offer that as some proof that my play has some soundness.

    Thanks in advance...(on another page at this site right now there is a series of posts from a bright young man that seems to have some of the same issues i have on risk (fear)...i admire his courage to discuss his concerns--your not alone brother.)

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Answers

    1) Do you own BJRM software? The Random Walk feature would be perfect for you to see graphically how this will play out.

    2) Why is knowing this for a single session all that important to you?

    In any event, use Table 10.93 or 10.94, in BJA3 (pp. 262-63) to find (roughly) the e.v. and s.d. for your 1-8 spread. Or, if you have BJRM or CVCX, find them precisely.

    Then, use the fact that a 1.65-s.d. loss will occur 5% of the time (see Table 8.9, p. 147). So, say (from Table 10.93) that your hourly e.v. is $33.28 and your hourly s.d is $536.88. This is for $15 units.

    Let's convert e.v. and s.d. to units: 33.28/15 = 2.22 and 536.88/15 = 35.79. So, what constitutes a 1.65-s.d. loss? Well, 2.22 - 1.65(35.79) = -69.36. So, your guess of 60 units wasn't too far off, but it's more like 70.

    Hope this helps.

    Don

  3. #3
    Francis Salmon
    Guest

    Francis Salmon: 60 units is not enough

    > Let say I play a 2 deck, H17,DAS game with hi-lo, 66
    > cards dealt before the shuffle card with two other
    > players...i plan to spread 1 unit 4...would 60 units
    > be enough to reduce risk of ruin down to less than 5%
    > for playing 100 hands?

    According to Don it's 70 units but even that is not enough.It's true that your risk of being behind by 70 units or more after 1 hour is 5% but only if have enough units to make it through the whole hour.If you take only 70 units you will often tap out prematurely,so your ROR will be higher than you wanted it to be.

    Even if you don't tap out,you cannot really play with only 70 units when your max bet is 8 units. Suppose things go badly from the start and you find yourself with only 23 units left.Now comes a juicy situation with 8/8 v 6,you split and you're dealt another 8.You want to split again but now you realize that you don't have enough money left to do so.What a shame!

    My rule of thumb is to bring along always at least 20 maxbets in order to avoid such embarassing moments.

    Francis Salmon


  4. #4
    Mr. Lee
    Guest

    Mr. Lee: Re: 60 units is not enough

    > According to Don it's 70 units but even that is not
    > enough.It's true that your risk of being behind by 70
    > units or more after 1 hour is 5% but only if have
    > enough units to make it through the whole hour.If you
    > take only 70 units you will often tap out
    > prematurely,so your ROR will be higher than you wanted
    > it to be.

    > Even if you don't tap out,you cannot really play with
    > only 70 units when your max bet is 8 units. Suppose
    > things go badly from the start and you find yourself
    > with only 23 units left.Now comes a juicy situation
    > with 8/8 v 6,you split and you're dealt another 8.You
    > want to split again but now you realize that you don't
    > have enough money left to do so.What a shame!

    > My rule of thumb is to bring along always at least 20
    > maxbets in order to avoid such embarassing moments.

    > Francis Salmon

    Ten top bets = 120 units w/ a 1-12 spread?

  5. #5
    guest
    Guest

    guest: Re: 60 units is not enough

    > According to Don it's 70 units but even that is not
    > enough.It's true that your risk of being behind by 70
    > units or more after 1 hour is 5% but only if have
    > enough units to make it through the whole hour.If you
    > take only 70 units you will often tap out
    > prematurely,so your ROR will be higher than you wanted
    > it to be.

    > Even if you don't tap out,you cannot really play with
    > only 70 units when your max bet is 8 units. Suppose
    > things go badly from the start and you find yourself
    > with only 23 units left.Now comes a juicy situation
    > with 8/8 v 6,you split and you're dealt another 8.You
    > want to split again but now you realize that you don't
    > have enough money left to do so.What a shame!

    > My rule of thumb is to bring along always at least 20
    > maxbets in order to avoid such embarassing moments.

    > Francis Salmon
    I will have to agree w/ Francis on this one 60 or 70 isn't sufficient. If your looking for a #, then about 100 units should be more than enough.

  6. #6
    VerdugoJohn
    Guest

    VerdugoJohn: Re: Answers

    > 1) Do you own BJRM software? The Random Walk feature
    > would be perfect for you to see graphically how this
    > will play out.

    Thanks, i don't own it, but i guess i will get it...was not aware of all that it could do, and previously i had given only lip-service to managing risk as i concentrated more on playing / betting soundly rather than finance/risk management.

    > 2) Why is knowing this for a single session all that
    > important to you?

    A few reasons, perhaps you will say they are emotional rather than logical...

    First is just to know what to expect in terms of fluctuation as I play. That knowledge fortifies my resolve to stay with a game if I start losing...I understand the difference between a successful and un-successful gambler often isn't ability to play, but emotional strength/confidence to stick it out when a succession of losing hand fall. Like my stockbroker says when the market falls "Now is not the time to panic"...[which always makes me wonder "if not now, then there must be a when, and i hope he tells ...]

    Also, I don't like to carry a load of cash on me for fear of mugging or pickpocket.

    And lastly, if I find the table limits are above what I anticipated, could I play for a shorter time at higher limits and have enough to last an hour? After all, if i drive four hours to play specific games for a few days, i would not want to be shut out completely if all those games were not available at the limits i planned.

    I am not Andy Beal...and i try to visit casinos during slow weeks/hours when i think red chip games should be available with thin crowds...but sometimes, the games aren't there then as casinos will open only a few tables

    > Hope this helps.

    It sure does, thanks to you, Frances, Mr L & all

    > Don

  7. #7
    VerdugoJohn
    Guest

    VerdugoJohn: Re: Answers

    > 2) Why is knowing this for a single session all that
    > important to you?

    Forgot to add one other reason...i like to spread my play around to various casinos--indeed part of the fun of knowing how to play good blackjack is the excuse/comfort of having a reason to sight see at the various stores around town...but sinking all one's bankroll into one game early in a trip will remove a lot of adventure on the trip/vacation.

    thanks again

  8. #8
    VerdugoJohn
    Guest

    VerdugoJohn: Re: 60 units is not enough

    Frances, you said

    "Now comes a juicy situation
    with 8/8 v 6,you split and you're dealt another 8.You
    want to split again but now you realize that you don't
    have enough money left to do so. What a shame!"

    Wow, you know, that is pretty much what occured on the one pass through the pack experience I mentioned in the first post... it was 88v7 on a good count, i drew a third 8 to make for another hand, then a double down...and of course the dealer drew to a 21...the session stake i had set for myself there was gone in an flash, and i did not think the game/conditions were good enough to chase my loss...

    thanks again.

  9. #9
    Francis Salmon
    Guest

    Francis Salmon: Chasing losses

    I know chasing losses has a bad reputation, but for an AP it's always a good opportunity for cover flinging extra-money on to the felt and cursing like a compulsive gambler.
    Very often,you get comps in such situations.
    Usually you run out of chips during a hot shoe and it's really a pity if you cannot strike back right away.
    Hence,my advice to bring at least 20 max bets.

    Francis Salmon

  10. #10
    Mr. Lee
    Guest

    Mr. Lee: Re: Chasing losses

    > I know chasing losses has a bad reputation, but for an
    > AP it's always a good opportunity for cover flinging
    > extra-money on to the felt and cursing like a
    > compulsive gambler.
    > Very often,you get comps in such situations.
    > Usually you run out of chips during a hot shoe and
    > it's really a pity if you cannot strike back right
    > away.
    > Hence,my advice to bring at least 20 max bets.

    > Francis Salmon

    Or just ask the pit should I bet it all on one hand?

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