Autoground: Keep going?

[Autoground]

3 weeks into a 6 week 'session', I'm down a whole friggin' lot. Here's the specifics:

Double Deck, h17, DA2, DAS, NS, ~65% pen
Spreading 1 - 6, where one unit = $5, max bet at +3
I've had about 75 - 85 hours of play, and am now down around 350 units. Btw, starting bankroll was $4k, so, 800 units.

I know that card-counting is not about trying to "leave without a loss." I understand that it's all about just sticking in there all the time and weathering it out, and eventually having some profit. That said: at this point in time, I just want to break even.
I have about 2 1/2 weeks left allotted to playing, and I'm wondering if it's worth continuing. What are the odds that I will rebound, and what are the odds that after these 2 1/2 more weeks I'll have a rejuvenated Bankroll?
Here's some more than I understand: having lost so much, I am most definitely not 'due' for a win. This losing streak could continue for the next bazillion trillion years.
But I've burnt myself out. I am appalled at how every high count results in my losing big. I am not well. And I am prepared to curl into a ball and roll off to battle another day. But if the odds say I have a decent chance of recouping my losses, then I'd like to know if it's worth it to keep going for 2 1/2 weeks, which equals roughly 60 more hours.
Perhaps my having lost heart is what makes me ask this question while knowing that the math i used in the past is still correct. I mean, yeah, i know I'm going to get all this back in the long run, but my despair makes me say: if i don't have a good chance of coming back soon, then I want to stop right now. Any guidance at all is appreciated. Thank you.

[email protected]

[Shaggy18VW]

I am not going to give you any math in this post, maybe just some tips.

Have you been experiencing much heat in your venture thus far. If not, you may want to increase your bet spread. Possibly being more aggressive by jumping bets up to the appropriate amount (this is assuming you are currently parlaying winnings). This aggressiveness unfortunately comes at a price, an increase in variance (you will be placing more big bets).

Some tips to decrease variance:
wong out more aggressively. Drop bets in negative decks more aggressively. Play with fewer other players (this will also increase your win rate). Tip Less (this may not decrease variance, but it will save you money).

Take more breaks. The worst thing to be is burned out. Plan your days so you will play at the best times and plan relaxing, enjoyable activities when the games will be bad.

All in all, I would recommend that you keep on pluggin' away. It can turn around. This is all assuming you are not making mistakes that are costing you money.

[VerdugoJohn]

It is an interesting problem you present...and I'll take a first pass at it...i don't have all of my library here with me in the office, so I will add a little later unless others beat me to the other points I have...undoubtedly others will add more and better.

All the experts say the toughest part of the game is the negative flux that will happen dispite your playing soundly.

Using Chapter 10 of BJA 2 to get some benchmark stats on your game, @ 62 cards pen you would have 1.41 units won per 100 hands with a standard dev of 26.48 units per 100 hands. And @ 70 cards the stats are 1.82 and 21.58. I believe those stats can be used to help evaluate how likely is your being behind after 75-85 hours, presuming that you were able to play at the level of the simulation. (That may not be fair as the computer does not have a pit critter to contend with).

Anyway, the game and spread you are playing, has a Hi-Lo I18 SCORE of 30.36 @ 62 cards and 44.13 @ 70 cards of pen per BJA 2 Chpt 11, p 276. I believe most experts prefer a SCORE above 50...the SCORE of your game indicates a marginally profitable game.

To increase your SCORE spread to 1-8 or better still, 2 hands of 6 on your top bets. 1-8 raises the I18 SCORE to 39.38 @ 62 cards and 56.20 @ 70 cards...I do not have the numbers, but two hands of 6 should be above both of those numbers...Other things, learn more indexes than I18, or use a stronger count than Hi-Lo.

Please don't be upset at the following, as these are the questions I ask myself when I am on a bad streak...

I also suggest review your ability some...are you a sure judge of the penetration? Have you practiced estimating deck depth at home? How sure are you of your ability to keep track of the count? Have you used any practice software for a time? Any problems with converting to True Count? Are you modulating your bet changes or are you varying your bets strictly by the count? Those may suggest actions you can take to strengthen your game.

Anyway, I will check my other materials and see if I can find some more points to add...

Keep at it...the law of large numbers should come around to your side eventually.

[Ouchez]

> 3 weeks into a 6 week 'session', I'm down a
> whole friggin' lot. Here's the specifics:

> Double Deck, h17, DA2, DAS, NS, ~65% pen
> Spreading 1 - 6, where one unit = $5, max
> bet at +3
> I've had about 75 - 85 hours of play, and am
> now down around 350 units. Btw, starting
> bankroll was $4k, so, 800 units.

> I know that card-counting is not about
> trying to "leave without a loss."
> I understand that it's all about just
> sticking in there all the time and
> weathering it out, and eventually having
> some profit. That said: at this point in
> time, I just want to break even.
> I have about 2 1/2 weeks left allotted to
> playing, and I'm wondering if it's worth
> continuing. What are the odds that I will
> rebound, and what are the odds that after
> these 2 1/2 more weeks I'll have a
> rejuvenated Bankroll?
> Here's some more than I understand: having
> lost so much, I am most definitely not 'due'
> for a win. This losing streak could continue
> for the next bazillion trillion years.
> But I've burnt myself out. I am appalled at
> how every high count results in my losing
> big. I am not well. And I am prepared to
> curl into a ball and roll off to battle
> another day. But if the odds say I have a
> decent chance of recouping my losses, then
> I'd like to know if it's worth it to keep
> going for 2 1/2 weeks, which equals roughly
> 60 more hours.
> Perhaps my having lost heart is what makes
> me ask this question while knowing that the
> math i used in the past is still correct. I
> mean, yeah, i know I'm going to get all this
> back in the long run, but my despair makes
> me say: if i don't have a good chance of
> coming back soon, then I want to stop right
> now. Any guidance at all is appreciated.
> Thank you.

> [email protected]

you are in a precarious mental state.

It would be best to play with a seasoned veteran who could examine your play....but in the mean time, just step back for a while. No shame in that.

Ouchez.

[Titan5]

I would add a couple more points.
1. Although casino cheating is rare, it does happen especially in small casinos or foreign casinos. So I would try different casinos nearby just in case.
2. H17 and NS is not a good rule. Maybe you can find another table or another casino with better rules.
3. If your long losing streak upsets or depresses you, you probably need a break. You can win on BJ only when you are in good shape, physically and mentally.
Just my opinion.

[Parker]

You are playing mediocre games with a conservative spread. According to CVCX, your EV is $7.86/hour. This assumes 100 hands/hour, no cover plays, and perfect play, using the I-18 including splitting 10's whenever the count calls for it.

Toss in an occasional mistake, cover play, dealer toke, and the fact that you're probably not averaging 100 hands/hour, and I am left wondering if you're even playing a positive EV game.

So, if you're not playing in order to make money, you must be playing for fun, right?

You don't sound like you're having much fun.

[Autoground]

With my bankroll, I cannot increase my bet spread without initiating an unacceptable (to me) RoR. This answers the question as to why my spread is already conservative. Somewhere along the line I read that one could make a run at this game with a $3k bankroll. I went with 4k, and still, with acceptable RoR parameters i cannot seem to make this work.
As a red chipper, though, I have not had to parlay my bets unless the PC was watching. That, essentially, has been my only cover play. So I've already been aggressive with betting the perfect amount.

For the $5 min. bettor at DDeck, there is no penetration past 65% that I've seen, sans one casino. In the Vegas area. Trackjack reports one casino that had 75% but that is, unfortunately, no longer true. There's only one casino i know of with around 75%, and I only discovered it recently. Maybe I'll just pummel it, but right now I have to take a break. Cause since yesterday I kept going for awhile and lost 60 more units.
In terms of the math of the game (read: 'aside from my constantly losing'), this penetration issue is my main problem. I've seen no pen. above 65%. I don't know what to tell you. Yes, yes the pen does suck.
Same goes for H17 and NS. Show me a $5 DDeck with LS and 75% pen and I'll write you a check for my soul.

As far as cheating goes -- that I just have to sit and wonder. Fact is, in order to get good pen and rules and everything else, I pretty much have to play at those casinos you mentioned what might possibly cheat. But mostly I still have confidence in the establishments. Unless more people mention certain names to me.

And I have confidence in my count and deck estimation. Yeah, I probably make mistakes. Why am i playing? Well, I didn't think $7 an hour + comps was something to scoff at.
But the lesson I think I've learned is that while in the past it may have been possible to make a go at this game with $3k, that's not really the case anymore. More like 6k, these days. With the state of penetration and rules in this city, not even 5k is enough to produce a safe enough spread and still make a decent amount of money.
Maybe I should turn in and wait until I have 10 grand to try again. I dunno, I dunno. But yeah, for the moment, at least, I'm going to stop.

Seasoned Veteran to examine my play? I don't expect it, of course. But I am, as always

[email protected]

[Sun Runner]

> With my bankroll, I cannot increase my bet
> spread without initiating an unacceptable
> (to me) RoR. This answers the question as to
> why my spread is already conservative.
> Somewhere along the line I read that one
> could make a run at this game with a $3k
> bankroll. I went with 4k, and still, with
> acceptable RoR parameters i cannot seem to
> make this work.

I'm not sure, in fact I'm pretty sure I am sure, that there isn't a bet spread you can employ that will yield even a break even game, with a small ROR on the $2K BR you have left. What is an unacceptable ROR for you? Parker, what did CVCX tell you his original ROR was?

> As a red chipper, though, I have not had to
> parlay my bets unless the PC was watching.

I don't think at this level you should be all that concerned with the PC.

> For the $5 min. bettor at DDeck, there is no
> penetration past 65% that I've seen, sans
> one casino.

So. I don't know if that is true or not, but even so, who is breaking your arm to play that game? Would you still go play if the pen was 50%?

> ... Yes, yes the pen does suck.
> Same goes for H17 and NS. Show me a $5 DDeck
> with LS and 75% pen and I'll write you a
> check for my soul.

Are you excluding 6D games from the population? Why?

> As far as cheating goes -- that I just have
> to sit and wonder. Fact is, in order to get
> good pen and rules and everything else, I
> pretty much have to play at those casinos
> you mentioned what might possibly cheat.

I can get fantastic pen and rules at a casino within 45 minutes of my front door. Oh, did I mention the 'ante' can be as high as 10%? Why would I go there? Why do you go where your not sure they are on the square?

> But mostly I still have confidence in the
> establishments.

Mostly. That's good; I guess.

I feel your pain; but with a small BR, you have to make a decision; either be very, very, very selective about the games you play, when you play them, and how you play them (for me, this would probably entail never setting down), or, play to a high ROR, employ a proper bet spread, and pray like hell for some positive flux. If God was not listening that day [] you'll have to save up another BR.

Good luck.

[Ouchez]

> With my bankroll, I cannot increase my bet
> spread without initiating an unacceptable
> (to me) RoR. This answers the question as to
> why my spread is already conservative.
> Somewhere along the line I read that one
> could make a run at this game with a $3k
> bankroll. I went with 4k, and still, with
> acceptable RoR parameters i cannot seem to
> make this work.
> As a red chipper, though, I have not had to
> parlay my bets unless the PC was watching.
> That, essentially, has been my only cover
> play. So I've already been aggressive with
> betting the perfect amount.

> For the $5 min. bettor at DDeck, there is no
> penetration past 65% that I've seen, sans
> one casino. In the Vegas area. Trackjack
> reports one casino that had 75% but that is,
> unfortunately, no longer true. There's only
> one casino i know of with around 75%, and I
> only discovered it recently. Maybe I'll just
> pummel it, but right now I have to take a
> break. Cause since yesterday I kept going
> for awhile and lost 60 more units.
> In terms of the math of the game (read:
> 'aside from my constantly losing'), this
> penetration issue is my main problem. I've
> seen no pen. above 65%. I don't know what to
> tell you. Yes, yes the pen does suck.
> Same goes for H17 and NS. Show me a $5 DDeck
> with LS and 75% pen and I'll write you a
> check for my soul.

> As far as cheating goes -- that I just have
> to sit and wonder. Fact is, in order to get
> good pen and rules and everything else, I
> pretty much have to play at those casinos
> you mentioned what might possibly cheat. But
> mostly I still have confidence in the
> establishments. Unless more people mention
> certain names to me.

> And I have confidence in my count and deck
> estimation. Yeah, I probably make mistakes.
> Why am i playing? Well, I didn't think $7 an
> hour + comps was something to scoff at.
> But the lesson I think I've learned is that
> while in the past it may have been possible
> to make a go at this game with $3k, that's
> not really the case anymore. More like 6k,
> these days. With the state of penetration
> and rules in this city, not even 5k is
> enough to produce a safe enough spread and
> still make a decent amount of money.
> Maybe I should turn in and wait until I have
> 10 grand to try again. I dunno, I dunno. But
> yeah, for the moment, at least, I'm going to
> stop.

> Seasoned Veteran to examine my play? I don't
> expect it, of course. But I am, as always

> [email protected]

what you ask for!!

Pill, Marlin and I, know even better......

Ouchez.

[VerdugoJohn]

I think some number crunching is needed to let you know how much negative flux you've had...
I've made some assumptions below, and you might redo the calculations using more accurate inputs in place of my assumptions.

You need to know the number of hands you've played and amount you've bet to get a standard deviation...for both you can make some estimates.

Per Schlessinger's BJA 2 a double deck game with 2 other players ought to average about 95 hands per hour, but for each additional player you would have 10% fewer hands per hour. You said you played between 75-85 hours, thus using 80 hours, you would have played 80*95 or 7,600 hands.

The dollars (or units) of standard deviation is 1.1 times the square root of the number of hands played time the average bet. (see BJA chpt 2)Thus, the 1.1 times the square root of 7,600 (87) times average number of units bet.

Your average bet depends upon your betting spread and ramp up. If you were using the one offered by Schlessinger in BJA II edition for your game, you would make an average bet of 1.8 units. Thus your standard deviation would be 87 * 1.1 * 1.8 or 178 units.

Your expectation per BJA II would be .86% times the number of units bet...I would suggest you use a lower EV than .86% to allow for errors, wongers-in and cover bets...so, I assumed 75% of that or .65 as your EV...thus 7600 * .65% * 1.8 or 89 would be your expected value.

Your result, -350 is 350 + 89 less than expectation or 439, which is -2.4 standard deviations (439/178)....that means the probability of the event happening is less than 1 in 20, assuming your skill was such that you played with an EV of .65%...

It's possible that you have had tough luck, but its seems just as possible that your play is not so strong that you play with that EV...

I believe a check out of the game, your betting ramp and your playing skills would be in order.
And the way to look at your losses to this point is as just the cost of learning your playcraft.

Indeed, if you have Blackjack Attack, or software such as BJ Risk Manager, you could do this analysis for yourself to alert yourself to skill improvement opportunities.

[Don Schlesinger]

> The dollars (or units) of standard deviation
> is 1.1 times the square root of the number
> of hands played time the average bet. (see
> BJA chpt 2)Thus, the 1.1 times the square
> root of 7,600 (87) times average number of
> units bet.

No, not quite true. The 1.1 figure (actually 1.13) is for flat betting. When you spread, as mentioned in the chapter you cite, the s.d. can be considerably larger, and you can't use the average bet to figure it out.

> Your average bet depends upon your betting
> spread and ramp up. If you were using the
> one offered by Schlessinger in BJA II
> edition for your game, you would make an
> average bet of 1.8 units. Thus your standard
> deviation would be 87 * 1.1 * 1.8 or 178
> units.

See BJA3 for much more accurate values.

> Your expectation per BJA II would be .86%
> times the number of units bet...I would
> suggest you use a lower EV than .86% to
> allow for errors, wongers-in and cover
> bets...so, I assumed 75% of that or .65 as
> your EV...thus 7600 * .65% * 1.8 or 89 would
> be your expected value.

Ditto.

> Your result, -350 is 350 + 89 less than
> expectation or 439, which is -2.4 standard
> deviations (439/178)....that means the
> probability of the event happening is less
> than 1 in 20,

Actually, it means 1 in 77.

> Indeed, if you have Blackjack Attack, or
> software such as BJ Risk Manager, you could
> do this analysis for yourself to alert
> yourself to skill improvement opportunities.

Yes, good idea!

Don

[Autoground]

> I don't think at this level you should be
> all that concerned with the PC.

Frustratingly, even as I was losing, I was backed off from one of those red chip tables. So, there's another red chip tip gleaned: PCs sure do care about that kid trying to make $7 an hour.

> So. I don't know if that is true or not,

Check Trackjack if you want. more than 60% pen for 2Deck is rare.

> but even so, who is breaking your arm to play
> that game? Would you still go play if the
> pen was 50%?

it was either play those games or not at all.

> Are you excluding 6D games from the
> population? Why?

Yeah, I was focusing on 2Deck only.

This news Don stated about my negative flux being 1 in 77 is mind-blowing. I don't know what to say. I kept the count, kept it well, and divided it by the number of half-decks remaining, and bet accordingly. I know this. And I had no more than one winning session in 2 weeks. 1 in 77, gawd, even I think it must be my fault; and I am ashamed.
I don't know what I did wrong. While the monetary loss stings, it's really not entirely the money.
If any upstarts with small bankrolls want to read about a similar storyline, have them do a post search for Autoground. Otherwise I'll be off saving up a 10k bankroll. This little excursion is, for the time being, over.
Thanks for everyone's help and info. I'll continue soaking up every bit of info I can from the forum -- it's a great resource. I wish everyone good cards.

[email protected]

[Autoground]

If you show me a $5 DDeck with LS and 75% pen in Las Vegas and I'll give you my Soul Security Number.