Prospero: Getting out the big bets

[Prospero]

I had a question for you all?

On my last trip to Las Vegas, I was playing shoe games with a $25 minimum (first time I?d done that consistently). I took a pretty good pounding, and I think that to a certain extent that was due to me underbetting during high true counts.

Here?s the thing ? as I said, I was getting pretty consistently beaten and I never felt that I had enough chips in front of me to justify going into my pockets for more money to increase my bets (especially if I?d lost the previous hand).

Let?s say for instance that I did win the previous hand, but I still don?t have enough chips in front of me to go to a max bet ? do you advise digging into your pockets for more change, or just betting as much as you have in front of you?

Thanks in advance

[Shaggy18VW]

Playing a shoe, the count will tend to stay high longer than just the next hand. If I have been playing $50 a hand (because the count is slightly up) and all I have left is $25, I would buy in and place the proper bet for the count. If I have been playing $25 a hand and the count has now gone up and I am down to my last $25, I would play it. If I win and the count is still up, I would parlay. If I lose the hand and the count is still up, I will rebuy and play the appropriate bet for the count. I might show some aggression as I rebuy.
Similarly if I lose the parlay, I will rebuy and place the count appropriate bet.

[Parker]

> I had a question for you all?

> On my last trip to Las Vegas, I was playing
> shoe games with a $25 minimum (first time
> I?d done that consistently). I took a pretty
> good pounding, and I think that to a certain
> extent that was due to me underbetting
> during high true counts.

If you're playing a $25 shoe game, your max bet should be at least $300, and you should be prepared (both bankroll-wise and mentally) to make that bet, and even to throw out several bets of that size in the case of a split/resplit/double situation.

> Here?s the thing ? as I said, I was getting
> pretty consistently beaten and I never felt
> that I had enough chips in front of me to
> justify going into my pockets for more money
> to increase my bets (especially if I?d lost
> the previous hand).

> Let?s say for instance that I did win the
> previous hand, but I still don?t have enough
> chips in front of me to go to a max bet ? do
> you advise digging into your pockets for
> more change, or just betting as much as you
> have in front of you?

You should bet according to the count. Making the big bets when the count calls for it is how we obtain our advantage, expecially in a shoe game. If you have buy in again to do this (or "money plays"), so be it.

Failure to keep chunking out the big bets when the count calls for it, especially when things are not going well, is one of the main reasons counters fail.

You sit at the table playing through negative counts with the sole purpose of eventually getting that positive shoe. So, when the opportunity finally presents itself, are you going to seize it or throw it away?

[Victoria]

I agree with Parker but would like to add one additional point. You stated it was your first time on a $25 table. Bankroll capable or not, you seem to be just not ready to throw out those $300 bets. To me this means you should either be playing at lower stakes or wonging into $25 tables.
Let's say your quite comfortable with a max bet of a little over $100. Play at a $10 table, then when the count is low and you are playing all, it will only at worst cost you $10 per hand. When the shoe favors you, now you throw out your bigger bets up to perhaps a $125 max. I remember one of the first times I played on a green chip table and put a $300 bet out there. Landed up with 3 7's and doubled on two of them. 5 max bets, $1500 on the table and my heart and stomach pounding. If you can not face this possibility, you are not ready for a green chip table.
Wonging. Say the only good rule game or all the games are $25 and you are fine (comfort zone) with $100 max. Then backcount tables, come in at plus 2 and if the count continues to increase get up to your new max. If the count tanks, then take a walk.
Victoria

[Prospero]

[MikeH]

> perhaps a $125 max. I remember one of the
> first times I played on a green chip table
> and put a $300 bet out there. Landed up with
> 3 7's and doubled on two of them. 5 max
> bets, $1500 on the table and my heart and
> stomach pounding. If you can not face this
> possibility, you are not ready for a green
> chip table.

What was the outcome of your $1,500 hand(s)?

[Autoground]

> What was the outcome of your $1,500 hand(s)?

yes, geez, for the love of goodness, what happened?

[Victoria]

> What was the outcome of your $1,500 hand(s)?

Landed up winning $300. One double landed up a 21, other double a 13, third hand an 18, while the dealer finished with 17.

[Autoground]

> Landed up winning $300. One double landed up
> a 21, other double a 13, third hand an 18,
> while the dealer finished with 17.

Hurray!

[methodman]

> very large bet on singoe deck got all 4 aces,
dealer had a 9, didn't get much,surrended on most,overall lost 1/2 of one bet.

[Phinitum]

Thanks for the tips, it seems like all the following answers assumed a different and less interesting question than how to not look like a counter when your chip count runs too low for the appropriate bet.

I'll also sometimes overbet the advantage to avoid possibly ending up with too few chips and having to buy in when it will look strange. That increases variance but decreases heat. "All in" seems to look natural, I agree though the following buy-in if you lose requires some acting.

> I am
> down to my last $25, I would play it. If I
> win and the count is still up, I would
> parlay. If I lose the hand and the count is
> still up, I will rebuy and play the
> appropriate bet for the count. I might show
> some aggression as I rebuy.
> Similarly if I lose the parlay, I will rebuy
> and place the count appropriate bet.

[Parker]

> Thanks for the tips, it seems like all the
> following answers assumed a different and
> less interesting question than how to not
> look like a counter when your chip count
> runs too low for the appropriate bet.

The whole idea of cover is to find ways to make you look less like a counter that don't cost a lot in terms of EV. Betting an amount less than called for by the count, for whatever reason, sacrifices a huge amount of EV, and thus should be avoided.

> I'll also sometimes overbet the advantage to
> avoid possibly ending up with too few chips
> and having to buy in when it will look
> strange. That increases variance but
> decreases heat. "All in" seems to
> look natural, I agree though the following
> buy-in if you lose requires some acting.

Overbetting your advantage results in increased variance and risk of ruin. Again, this is a costly form of cover.

[Phinitum]

Overbetting increases variance. Underbetting reduces your EV. Buying in more so you can add to the chips in front of you for a bet can draw unwanted attention. Life is full of tradeoffs.

The actual numbers involved need to be known for somebody to say what they would do. Bet the called-for 12 or all 14 of your chips if more rounds are expected from the shoe? I'd say 14. Bet 14 or the called-for 8? I'd say 8.

> The whole idea of cover is to find ways to
> make you look less like a counter that don't
> cost a lot in terms of EV. Betting an amount
> less than called for by the count, for
> whatever reason, sacrifices a huge amount of
> EV, and thus should be avoided.

> Overbetting your advantage results in
> increased variance and risk of ruin. Again,
> this is a costly form of cover.