Ali Baba: Beatability of Blackjack

[Ali Baba]

Until now, I had been under the impression that if you played for a significant amount of time using card counting, you would beat the game of blackjack. But I recently read this on this site, in the FAQ's:

4.5 Is casino blackjack a "beatable" game?

(thunk)

Background: Many books have been written that claim that BJ is beatable.

Answer: Simulations performed by rec.gamblers show different amounts of potential player advantage in theory in BJ, depending on strategies, exact rules, and playing conditions. These numbers typically approach 1% (an average penny gain for every dollar bet), though in certain particular, ideal circumstances this can get somewhat higher. There is disagreement on the net about how much advantage this translates into in "real-world" casinos, but it's generally believed that players can play with a small, long-run advantage in BJ. The variance is very high in this game, however, which makes the slight advantage in BJ far from a sure thing.

Which raises the question. In the long term, is blackjack for sure beatable, or no? Is all my effort spent on learning a card-counting system going to pay off?

Thank you.

Ali Baba

[Parker]

> Which raises the question. In the long term,
> is blackjack for sure beatable, or no? Is
> all my effort spent on learning a
> card-counting system going to pay off?

Short answer: Yes.

Blackjack is beatable. This does not mean that every game in every casino is beatable.

However, if you are adequately bankrolled, intelligent enough to learn a counting system and use it with few errors, self-disciplined enough to formulate a strategy and stick with it even when things are going poorly, have the mental toughness needed to weather the inevitable losing streaks, and are willing to put in the hours of play, you will eventually wind up a long term winner.

And yes, that's a lot of "if's."

[Little Ben]

I?m so glad that there?s somebody else out there who thinks the same as me. Though I?ve read several books I?m still a beginner and still not confident enough to walk into a casino with my hard earned cash and gamble with it. I?ve learned recently that the game is beatable with practice and determination. I put my new found knowledge to the test with Yahoo Blackjack. I try to bet wisely (not bet the maximum) and find it great practice when learning basic strategy: the game does move a little too fast for me to count though.

I?ve also come to the conclusion that in order to become a successful card counter don?t attempt to count drunk and don?t smoke weed. I stopped smoking weed and the accuracy of my counting and mental arithmetic went through the roof. My college friends think I?m wasting my time: I hope to prove the lazy stoners wrong.

Good Luck.

Ben

[Little Ben]

once again best of luck.

http://www.casino.com/blackjack/print.asp?id=320

Little Ben

Card Counting- Theory vs Practice

[bfbagain]

Like having to ask about menu items and their associated costs at a high end restaurant, if you have to ask, you probably shouldn't be eating there, your question is viewed in much the same way.

With all the appropriate respect deserved for Parker, and all of his correct "ifs" in his answer, if you have to ask the question, then the odds of you winning, whether it's short term or long term, are practically nil.

You will either accept the math -- and in this case I'm referring specifically to the mathematical facts surrounding the advantage the casino enjoys for each and every (specific games) version of BJ offered by a casino, and the resulting advantage with each and every version of a card counting system played and bet perfectly -- or not!

And that's even before we get into the resulting cat and mouse games that are ubiquitious to the game of blackjack between card counters and casinos.

All that is really known, and relied on, is that of all the games offered by casinos to the gambling public, blackjack is the only one that affords the player with a theoretical edge and opportunity to win.

Yes, poker provides advantages, but that is exploited against other players, and not the casinos. And sportsbetting also provides an edge (opportunity) to players, but in sportsbetting, casinos attempt to be mere brokers between, again, players, i.e., players on one side vs. players on the other side of a sports wager. As in poker, the casino receives a form of "rake", which is known as "the vig".

"Lines" that the sportsbooks set are merely designed to divide the gambling public into two (and hopefully split down the middle) camps of bettors. When a sportsbook (casino) finds itself gambling (where they're heavy on one side more than the other), there is a lot of angst in the casino, especially if it's a big game like the Super Bowl, because now they're gambling.

Any other game casinos offer, in certain and usually rare circumstances, can afford players with an edge to win. But that's just the "opportunity" to win, no guarantees.

The sooner you understand and accept the above, the more likely you will begin your trek towards becoming a winning player.

--to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

cheers
bfb

[Parker]

We are actually in agreement, although it may appear otherwise at first glance.

If an individual is the sort of person who will start questioning the math the first time he (or she) has a bad losing session, that person is probably better off doing something else with his hard-earned cash, as he will have a difficult time ever getting to that near-mythical "long run."

[Victoria]

Call this "The Media and the Novice Counter"

In watching some of these beating Vegas shows, M.I.T. team shows and other shows featuring advantage gamblers, I know they never will quite tell the public enough for them to really understand this game we play. Sometimes it seems so easy, " I go plus 1, 2, 3 etc and when it is really plus I put more money out there and get a blackjack." What could be easier. They never show the advantage player putting a max bet out, getting 16 and 16 while looking at a dealer paint.
So, the new counter starts counting, he shows up in a casino thinking it is his ATM and runs right into a thing called variance. For new counters, variance is a math term for what most people call luck!
For many counters, especially ones who have limited blackjack experience or limited bankroll, this could be the end, the counting does not work, the guys who wrote that book just sell books stage, and the end of their fledgling counting experience. For others, there is doubt, there is a growing period, there is eventual understanding of just why everything is always explained with one key term, "In The Long Run." In the long run variance is no longer significant at all and you can make a good case that it does not even exist. All the mountains and valleys of your daily blackjack graph are now a smooth straight line going slightly up. The trouble is most of us are too effected by the now, the soon, the short run and it causes us to make mistakes that will effect the long run.
Counting cards is the easiest part and just one part, of what must be done to be a winning blackjack player. Commitment to the system, discipline over superstitions, the guts to spread, learning indices, discipline in choosing the games you play, creating different acts for different casinos, and an ability to except a loss if you know you played correctly are just a few of things you need to do that may be harder than going plus 1, 2, etc and divide by decks.

I think the casinos should love all the novice counters that might be showing up (I really have not seen too many) and even encourage them, but they will not because the casinos are victims of their own propaganda. They also think that all you have to do is have that ability to count and they will go broke.

Sorry for rambling so much.
Victoria

> Hey Ali Baba. Further to my previous
> response, have a look at this article by
> Henry Tamburin; It may give you a bit of
> insight before you go gamble your bank roll.

> once again best of luck.

>
> http://www.casino.com/blackjack/print.asp?id=320

> Little Ben

[bfbagain]

[Sun Runner]

> I stopped smoking weed and the
> accuracy of my counting and mental
> arithmetic went through the roof.

See, learning to count has paid off already! Ya' think the same might apply to your success in school, on the job, and life in general?



Good luck.

[Little Ben]

> See, learning to count has paid off already!
> Ya' think the same might apply to your
> success in school, on the job, and life in
> general?

>

> Good luck.

I hope so mate. Otherwise I?m missing out on some great parties and it would all be for nothing. I have an actual concentration span these days and rarely fall asleep in class.

I?ve gone from ?Cheech and Chong? to Stanford Wong.

Good Luck with the BJ.

Little Ben

[Sun Runner]

> I?ve gone from ?Cheech and Chong? to Stanford Wong.

Hilarious.

You're a smart guy.

Good luck.

[Praying Mantis]

> Sorry for rambling so much.
> Victoria

Well, ramble some more...you hit the nail on the head and the novice needs to fully "understand" what you're saying.

PM